AdventitiousDrummer

Follower ✞, Investor, Drummer & Software Dev

Stock charts & commentary are for my own use but if you benefit or learn as well, fantastic. NFA

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 @ohnonotcameron Not saying this general logic inherently wrong, but this isn’t automatically any kind of high probability target just because it’s closer.

It’s already a pretty balanced range.

Context is important.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 Doing fine! My stance was that $4.37 could certainly be the next primary lower liquidity draw IF PA proved to continue to be weak which it has. But I firmly stand by my comments below.

[Jonathan D @mymorristribe]

Dear @PoweredByEos,
What we want to hear about is:

1. Real world data, performance, reliability, system RTE, etc from specific, production sites with the Z3 and Dawn. No more nameplate, lab nonsense. We want to geek out on the real world data. Feed the beast!

2. Explain the real-world run rate for manufacturing cubes/indensity. Materials in > containerized BESS out, no cherry picking the best parts. What is your actual in the factory annual GWH run rate?

3. Are you or are you not going to make your $300M guidance. We want to see @JoeMastrangelo8 lay down the gauntlet. It's a simple question, even if the path is not easy.

4. Is AMAZE effectively dead? Are you getting anymore than maybe 1 more reimbursement tranche from the DOE? Now that 4 lines by end of 2027 seems like a distant dream, what does the new 3yr outlook look like? If AMAZE is still a thing, say so in no uncertain terms.

5. When are you actually going to commission a Z3 site? Any site. What's the real reason for the endless delays? We can handle the ugly truth. Tell us the real problems and your solutions with a legit timeline. We assume retrofitting every site with hardware and DAWN O/S integration is the delay.

6. Do you expect FPUSA to be fully operational (board, staff, office space, phone number, etc) by end of Q3?

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 Appreciate the attempt, but context is an absolutely critical adaption to working with equities on high time frames. Even more so with growth companies

Can’t just copy paste ICT models because the colors match. Might get lucky sometimes

5-minute forex chart ❌ 1-month equity

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 You do realize that you cannot treat ICT concepts the EXACT same way on a 1 minute Forex or Futures chart to an equity on especially high time frame charts?

Context matters and you’re missing it.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 lol okay bro. Cool chart

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 But ultimately the charts will tell us who is right.

My hill to die on is not $4.37. That one is possible, but not written in stone.

$1.37 is outright insanity outside of bankruptcy or economic collapse. Your ultimate bias is wrong in my view and that’s where we separate.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 You may have more time than me, but you also have a huge ego (just being real) and talk like the market HAS to do what you say.

Those are things that ICT explicitly says tends to make bad traders 😬

Have to be willing adapt and let the market validate or invalidate your thesis

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 Sure you make a fine enough argument for the RELs, but also it’s not quite that simple. As you should know, things aren’t written in stone as you imply. They aren’t decided.

So you have to keep watching for what PD Arrays are respected or not. Follow institutional order flow.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Dolphins19845 Sure I do, but clearly so do you if you genuinely believe your $1.37 level has more than a 5% chance of being a legitimate draw.

I know you’re mostly (right now) talking about the $4.37 RELs, and those would be the next obvious liquidity draw IF price should keep deteriorating.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@MichaelKasun @JordanSolace Of course Q2 is important, but I’m not very confident that it will be the “inflection point” in a sense where it’s a straight line or less that the trajectory puts margins at 0 or positive by Q4.

That would be huge upside for Q2 if IMO if margins improved that much so soon.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@JordanSolace With the improvements being made to line 1 and perhaps more importantly, better utilization

And hopefully much more visibly line 2 beginning to add to the picture showing somewhat of an inflection TOWARD being GM+ as line 2 ramps up over the next 2 quarters.

QoQ matters a lot

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@JordanSolace I believe one could argue — unless this is your point and I missed it — that GM doesn’t even need to actually flip for there to be a re-rate.

The trajectory and ramp TO it becoming obvious may serve just as well.

That almost certainly won’t be Q2, but could be Q3

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@JoshTradeOption Well, I never left… for better or worse. So it’s kind of both

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@j_grieshaber I’ll never plan on a squeeze. Would be cool, but they basically never happen when people think they will or should.

5% chance

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@bert_gilfoyle Sheesh.

36 GWh - 48 GWh? Those are getting to be some big boy numbers

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Cluster_6 @mymorristribe @shoogahsnaps @PoweredByEos Noted and no problem.

It's actually EOSE that made me decide to do so. I'm never going to ride a irresponsibly large position up 900% and then down 80% again lol

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@Cluster_6 @mymorristribe @shoogahsnaps @PoweredByEos Def long-term bull here. I am trading my positions across the board far more than I used to, but not inherently a “trader”.

[AdventitiousDrummer @Maxonation]

@mymorristribe @shoogahsnaps @PoweredByEos @Cluster_6 Hey @Cluster_6 -- Don't know if you're "in charge" over there, but can you let me in, pretty please? lol