Mike McCloy

American. #Life #Liberty #ThePursuitOfHappiness. Freedom Loving Entrepreneur, Investor, Youth Sports Coach, Opportunity Identifier, & Inventor

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

@LukeGromen, what's your take on this Capital Wars (Michael Howell) assertion that PBoC liquidity is likely the main driver of gold prices? (https://t.co/rMe3PFYAiW)

[General Mike Flynn @GenFlynn]

The Iran War: Who will win?

To invoke theory for a moment; wars are fundamentally contests of national willpower backed by capability, directed by strategy. Achieving victory requires the victor to overcome the enemy’s resistance. The side that manages the combination of resources & willpower while imposing its political objectives usually wins.

While there is no single factor, victory is the outcome of multiple interlocking advantages that compound over time.

History shows no magic bullet; even overwhelming superiority in one area can be negated by failure in others (think Vietnam, Somalia, Afghanistan, even Korea). All to say, the war with Iran does not equate to WWII conditions.

What determines victory?

1.  Political will and coherence among the political machinery of a nation. The side that can sustain higher costs longer, maintain domestic support, and clearly define winnable goals usually prevails. You can win militarily and still lose the war. The side whose political system better handles the stress of prolonged conflict holds the edge.

2.  Economic and logistical power or the ability to sustain a prolonged war. There is a saying in warfare, “amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics.” Industrial capacity, supply chains, finance, and the ability to replace losses decide long wars. History teaches many examples where this was simply not the case. Especially in wars of attrition (ie., Vietnam).

3.  Strategy and operational art or better stated, good strategy multiplies force; bad strategy wastes it. Strategies such as maneuver warfare used by the Germans in WWII (see above), attrition strategies that favor your strengths (Russians fighting Napoleon & Hitler along their Eastern Front), or exhaustion strategies (the use of Fabian tactics, simply wearing your opponent down). A boxing fan would know this as the rope-a-dope strategy applied by heavy weight boxing champion, Muhammad Ali. Learning faster than the enemy, adapting to clear weaknesses, and using good intelligence wisely, all matter. History is replete with many “genius” generals who lost because their strategy didn’t match the resources or the politics along with their failure to adapt nor recognize their need to adapt.

4.  Technology and force quality where technology advantages are real but transient and rarely decisive alone (stealth drones, aircraft carriers, hypersonic weapons, suicide bombers, AI, electronic warfare, cyber, robotics, targeting from space, etc) are all being shaped or are reshaping modern warfare at speed. Victory can be achieved by the adapter of risk and new technology matched by courage in the political halls as well as on the battlefield. Superior training, sound but flexible doctrine, and human capital often matter more than raw equipment, essentially the side that integrates new technology faster wins (ie., Houthi rebels using ballistic missiles and drones to deny passage thru the Red Sea).

5.  Manpower, morale, and alliances matter when quality is comparable. High morale (belief you’re fighting for something real) can sustain casualties. So far we’ve been blessed that our casualty figures are low (one casualty is hard but the human cost of war is real). Coalitions bring resources and legitimacy but add friction. Geography clearly favors the defender Iran in this case. And our need to project power is necessary but super expensive.

So what? What type of war is this?

Is it a short war, is it another long war, is it an asymmetric war?

Bottom line: There is no romantic answer for this war. War is a failure of diplomacy. War is ugly. War is costly. Wars are usually won by the side better at converting resources into sustained, coherent violence in service of achievable goals. The loser is often the one that miscalculates the other’s resolve or their own vulnerabilities. I pray we didn’t do that here. This war is a test of endurance as much as tactics. Pray America & Americans can endure.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

@michaeljmcnair @LukeGromen @profitsplusid Bob, what is your take on why gold has been hit so hard since the Iran war started? Do you agree with this analysis?

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

I agree with @ctindale here. Trump's (likely) upcoming strike on Iran has absolutely NOTHING to do with what Iran is doing to protestors- and probably little to do with the threat of Iran building a nuke. Trump's goal is control a decent amount of global oil production. Then, China can't absolutely overpower us with their stranglehold on mineral and metal refining/production. We control energy & China controls metals- as @ctindale details below. The ensuing economic leverage the US would have over China would approximately equal the leverage that China (already) has over us. We trade energy (oil) for minerals and ideally the 2 largest economies in the world coexist without kinetic war.

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

The strike on Iran

To understand a strike on Iran, we must discard "common wisdom" that such interventions are avoided due to historical failure.

The state is a monopoly of force governed by the calculation of survival.

When a power perceives an existential threat, the risks of a post-conflict "disaster" cease to be a deterrent; they become a secondary technical problem.

The transition from containment to intervention follows a linear acceleration. What I mean is that the rational toward intervention and regime change very quickly across new paths unexpectedly .

As the perceived threat to a state's core security increases, the threshold of action is crossed, the structural logic descends . At this juncture, the catastrophic potential is weighed against the absolute certainty of national unavoidable consequence ( the rock and hard place ) .

The former is a manageable chaos; the latter is a systemic failure that the rational bureaucracies cannot permit.

Israel and U.S. have moved to that 2nd stage . I make no moral judgement other than to point at the mechanics .

In the sociology of power, the objective reality of a threat is less significant than the , the subjective belief of the decision-making elite.

Once the leadership internalizes the necessity of regime change, the machinery of the state realigns efficiently .

The clash the world anticipates is merely the visible output of a calculation already finalized .

Under the pressure of survival, the "lessons" of previous decades are the luxuries of a more stable era. The accept beliefs of the previous unipol era evaporate under new multipol survival stresses .

For a state acting under the conviction of its own demise, a chaotic region is preferable to a precise execution of its own interests.

Iran & Venezuela become central : China controls metals then the U.S. must control energy . Balance provides incentives toward cooperation and peace .

The state machines of all parties don’t seek a "brighter future"; they each seeks a path to state persistence relative to the threat it perceives and what they each believe to be true .

[Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 @FmrRepMTG]

Shawn is speaking for millions.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

@ghsrockets @JEFCOED @AlabamaAchieves @GovernorKayIvey Dear Gardendale High & Jefferson County School District, You recently chose to give students excused absences to go protest (ICE) in Fultondale. Encouraging kids to protest enforcement of Federal Law is ridiculous and disgraceful. For a public entity, promoting such behavior is an absurd and wrong use of our taxpayer funds. I call on the Jefferson County School system to issue an apology to all parents and taxpayers and immediately stop supporting those who oppose Law Enforcement.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

@TrumpDailyPosts @USRepGaryPalmer I look forward to you supporting and facilitating the passage of the SAVE Act in the House! This is potentially the most important thing that Congress has addressed in years!

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

@TrumpDailyPosts @SenKatieBritt @SenTuberville I look forward to you facilitating the passage of the SAVE Act in the Senate! This is absolutely vital to our Republic.

[John Rich🇺🇸 @johnrich]

Here's a little song I just wrote. Dedicated to Al Gore.
"GLOBAL WARMING" (Is Freezin' Us To Death)
I'm startin' to think that @algore fella is full of shit?
Feel free to rip this audio and make your own video version of it:)

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

Very interesting perspective from the guy who called the Great Financial Crisis (the guy who "The Big Short" is about).

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

If had the ear @JDVance @realDonaldTrump @DonaldJTrumpJr @GovRonDeSantis @LeaderJohnThune, I would ask them to take a trillion dollars (since trillions just get thrown around like millions now) and bypass all the protests and regulations and dot the whole country with small nuclear reactors, while also building a brand-new, state-of-the-art grid for everyone. Do this as soon as possible and secure it all from attack with the latest physical and cybersecurity; maybe even create a special Nuclear Defense Force that protects each facility, funded federally.

This is the only hope of getting enough power to keep up with China, and it is the only hope we have as a country to grow enough to ultimately pay off our debt and guarantee long-term security, by not letting power be a limiting factor on our innovation.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

@profitsplusid Bob, do you agree with the following article stating that Banks are going long silver?
https://t.co/baNPafAnqp

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

Ladies & Gents: this is the non-politically correct reality. Thanks to @TulsiGabbard for honesty in leadership. Here's a societal survival hack: don't import people into your jurisdiction (country) who want to kill you.

[Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 @TulsiGabbard]

The tragic Islamist terror attack against those at a Hanukkah celebration in Australia sadly should not come as a surprise to anyone. This is the direct result of the massive influx of Islamists to Australia. Their goal is not only the Islamization of Australia but the entire world—including the United States. Islamists and Islamism is the greatest threat to the freedom, security, and prosperity of the United States and the entire world. It is probably too late for Europe—and maybe Australia. It is not too late for the United States of America. But it soon will be. Thankfully, President Trump has prioritized securing our borders and deporting known and suspected terrorists, and stopping mass, unvetted migration that puts Americans at risk.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

Great article. We have outsourced the vast bulk of some critical supply chains to China and we are about to get hosed for doing so.

[🇦🇺Craig Tindale @ctindale]

https://t.co/vWLN07swYq

[General Mike Flynn @GenFlynn]

With America’s monumental debt and the very well known and deep levels of corruption in Zelensky’s Ukraine Government … my question to @POTUS @realDonaldTrump is:

WHY?

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

https://t.co/TNT9pjcF3y

This is a fascinating look at how the Chinese have embraced what is essentially capitalism to fuel their economic rise while Western nations have simultaneously adopted essentially communist ideals (DEI, Identity Politics, etc) to the detriment of their economies and societies.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

Great Law Enforcement

[ꪻꫝể ꪻꫝể @TheThe1776]

Sheriff Grady Judd arrested 8 PA kids for stealing 47 items worth over $2,200 from Dick’s Sporting Goods, potentially costing their team a championship. Coach begging deputies and management to drop charges and when unsuccessful, coach said don’t you guys have something better to do than arrest these kids. Judd refused: " I don’t know if they were starters or not, but we are finisher, we arrested them… In Polk County, we lock up thieves, no warnings… Coach, you're the loser; hold kids accountable like we do here, where crimes are at a 53-year low”

[Wall Street Apes @WallStreetApes]

This video of an Afghanistan War Veteran is now at over 71,000 Likes

“I've been retired for 8 years and come home and what are we seeing? We're seeing entire communities being taken over by the very people that we fought to keep off of our shores”

Listen to every word

“I just finished listening to Ilhan Omar talk about how horrible, terrible, and dirty this country is, denigrating the nation and half the people in it.

This country has been extraordinarily kind, benevolent, and gracious to her and countless others. We gave her asylum, a place to live, an education, and a pathway to become a sitting United States Congresswoman.

But for me, it goes much deeper than that. I’m an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran. I was 22 years old when those planes flew into the towers, and like thousands of other young men across this country, I answered the call to go fight the evil that had finally reached our shores.

We were told, over and over, if we fought them over there, we wouldn’t have to fight them here. We kissed our families goodbye. I watched my wife cry as I boarded the bus to the airfield. I watched my son cry because he didn’t know if or when he’d see his dad again.

Now I’ve been retired for eight years. I came home ready to start the rest of my life, and what do I see? Entire communities being taken over by the very people we fought to keep off our shores. Dearborn, Michigan is completely transformed. Mosques in Minnesota, Texas, Missouri, and all over the country are promoting Sharia law. Do we really have to explain that Sharia law is incompatible with the United States Constitution?

We were promised that if we fought them over there, we wouldn’t have to fight them here. Instead, what did we do? We elected one mayor of a major American city. We gave them Senate seats in Minnesota.

So I want you to do something. Turn around, find an Iraq or Afghanistan veteran near you, look them in the eye, and tell them why they shouldn’t feel betrayed. I dare you”

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

What are the macro implications for the next few quarters and years if the Trump Administration does NOT outright embrace inflation but instead continues attempting to rebuild the industrial base without addressing the American middle class wage issues (H1B visa issuance, gaslighting about food being cheaper, etc)? https://t.co/lSiS2Jz1Rx

[An0maly @LegendaryEnergy]

Perfect summary of American gaslighting: Trump celebrates the Walmart CEO announcing their Thanksgiving basket is 25% less expensive this year.

It has less items and replaced all the name brands with store brands.

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

Boom

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

A very Happy Thanksgiving salutation to all of our Great American Citizens and Patriots who have been so nice in allowing our Country to be divided, disrupted, carved up, murdered, beaten, mugged, and laughed at, along with certain other foolish countries throughout the World, for being “Politically Correct,” and just plain STUPID, when it comes to Immigration. The official United States Foreign population stands at 53 million people (Census), most of which are on welfare, from failed nations, or from prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful hearts, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it’s eating them alive to do so! A migrant earning $30,000 with a green card will get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.). As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for “prey” as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst “Congressman/woman” in our Country, Ilhan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab, and who probably came into the U.S.A. illegally in that you are not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its Constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of Government, Military, Police, schools, etc. Even as we have progressed technologically, Immigration Policy has eroded those gains and living conditions for many. I will permanently pause migration from all Third World Countries to allow the U.S. system to fully recover, terminate all of the millions of Biden illegal admissions, including those signed by Sleepy Joe Biden’s Autopen, and remove anyone who is not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country, end all Federal benefits and subsidies to noncitizens of our Country, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won’t be here for long!

[Mike McCloy @McCloyMike]

It’s disgusting that we let this guy come to the US- much less the White House.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

The US fought the "war on terror" for more than 20 years -- it's ongoing. It not only cost trillions of dollars and more than a million lives, but radically and permanently eroded core civil liberties for Americans.

Now, someone the DOJ called an Al Qaeda terrorist less than a year ago is welcomed to the WH.

No word is more meaningless and manipulated than "terrorist." It means nothing, yet is at the center of our discourse, and shapes the most potent government powers and laws. Its lack of a fixed meaning is what makes it so useful, and so dangerous.