Mc Enrie 🇪🇺

MBA ~ Twitto di innovazione, economia, finanza, politica, regole. Appassionato di orologeria e motociclette.
Pro-Europa. Allergico ai cazzari e al GRADUIDAMENDE

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

GRADUIDAMENDE

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@HuffPostItalia Stivm scars a sciem, come dicono in Campania.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

#AlbertoBagnai è scarso forte anche nelle cose di cui si occupa, ma saperlo all'Antitrust, di cui non capisce davvero nulla, è davvero preoccupante. Unico merito: aver baciato per anni il sedere di un'altra nullità come Salvini.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

The US Treasury has to refinance $9.7 trillion of debt this year. Not borrow new money. Just roll over what’s already there.

That is a third of the entire publicly held debt hitting the market in twelve months, at whatever rate the market decides to charge, and the consensus response from people who should know better is still “we’ll grow into it.”

We won’t. And I’d bet most of the people saying it have never watched a bond market decide it’s done being polite.

The math is not complicated. Debt-to-GDP only falls when nominal growth beats the average interest rate on the debt and you aren’t running a primary deficit on top of it. We fail both. The average rate on marketable Treasury debt is about 3.35%, up from 1.54% five years ago, and it climbs every single month as the cheap COVID-era paper matures and gets replaced at today’s yields. Nobody has to vote for that. It happens automatically.

Interest cost crossed $970 billion last year and passes a trillion now. Projected to hit $2.1 trillion by 2036. Sixteen trillion in interest over the decade, money that buys nothing, builds nothing, funds nothing. It already eats 18.5% of every dollar of federal revenue and goes to a quarter of revenue within ten years. It is the fastest-growing line in the budget and it grows in a straight line regardless of who wins any election between now and then.

Here is what should terrify you. CBO has debt going from 101% to 120% of GDP by 2036 with deficits running 5.8% of GDP right now. That projection assumes eleven straight years without a recession. Zero contraction. Ever. That is the good case.

Now think about what an actual recession does to that fraction. Revenue collapses. Automatic stabilizers fire. Deficits blow out to 10%+ overnight while the denominator shrinks underneath you. The ratio doesn’t drift higher, it gaps.

And it never comes back. 2007 we were at 35%. 2012, 70%. 2019, 79%. 2021, over 100%. Every crisis resets the floor and the growth everyone promised has never once clawed back a single point of it. The ratio only ratchets one direction.

Don’t bring up post-WWII. We paid that down with capped yields, a captive domestic bond market, a baby boom, and a world that had just bombed its own factories flat. Don’t bring up Japan either. Domestic savers, a central bank warehousing the curve, a current account surplus. We have foreign creditors with options and twin deficits.

Moody’s already pulled the last AAA in 2025, first downgrade since 1917. The signal is out there.

Debt compounds mechanically. Growth is a choice the market makes for you, and eventually it stops choosing.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@ultimora_pol A settembre eh, sia mai lavorare ad agosto per questioni assolutamente secondarie come questa.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@GiuseppeConteIT Ragà, tuttapposto: telefona lui.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@CarloCalenda Secondo me una bella querela per diffamazione aiuterebbe tanto il prof. Orsetti.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@PTrubey LOL. We literally invented that, but - of course - how would a self-centered American know? See you, Yank.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@PTrubey 1. No reputable operator, but Citadel, spread the word that the FED was going to hike rates.
2. The financial market, which often overreacts, tanked.
3. Citadel bought at discount.
By European regulation, that is the definition of manipulation. I'm not sure in the far west.

[Hughes-on-the-Wold @NotThatHughes]

Infantino being invited to UEFA Headquarters

[Antoine Duval @Ant1Duval]

I had a quick look at #FIFA's press release on its plan to sell a share of its commercial revenues to investors for 'development' purposes.

Here is my interpretation of FIFA's plan, its aims and what it tells us about the ultra-commodification of modern football.

👇👇👇

[enzo @enzo_gte]

I've been using Kimi K3 for ~16 hours now.

The model is clearly good at a lot of different things (especially frontend), but non obvious reason why people are enjoying it so much is that it clearly does not follow the same rules in terms of safeguards and copyright.

Kimi will happily clone MacOSX. If you ask it to help you improve another AI model, it will do it with a smile on its virtual face.

Ask Fable to do the same thing? It literally starts to perceive you as a criminal committing a war crime (like no bro, all I want to do is fine tune an open source model).

After using all three recent releases, Fable, GPT 5.6, and now Kimi, it's clear that the full power of the models has been significantly held back by the safeguard restrictions caused by last months debacle with the USG -- leading to the top models being quite literally lobotomized in some areas, which leads to subpar results as the safeguards pollute its entire thinking and problem solving abilities.

The funny part? Is that you could have predicted this outcome 2-3 years ago when you started to see the rise of Chinese EVs and smartphones compared to western alternatives.

They quite literally tried to copy the Tesla Model S and iPhone as hard as possible and then eventually it started to diverge to the point where their EVs and phones are just genuinely better (which is why we have export controls banning their EVs, because they would literally drive all US manufacturers to ZERO)

There is a very clear behavior difference in Chinese capitalism and American capitalism.

American capitalism tries to protects copyright, patents, etc (oh no, you can't download a book through LibGen, that's ILLEGAL!).

Versus Chinese capitalism actually just does not give a fuck.

"Hey you want a video gen model (Seeddance 2.5) trained on every single anime ever? And you want the main character to look exactly like Messi? Sure, here you go!"

You see what I mean? When one half of the competition is being held up by regulators and restrictions on people who don't understand the technology and the other half has a leader who quite literally today said they are going to set up AI centers around the world to help other countries onboard to their open-source AIs, this is the sort of results that you will start to get.

These models were not smart enough to have this difference in philosophy matter -- but the newest class of models is where this difference makes a big deal. If these models are finally at the point where they are smarter than 99% of humans, why would you want to use the American one who tries to impose its world view onto you versus the Chinese one who will just do what you say without asking any questions?

And this isn't a full on bullpost on Kimi, the model is clearly not as smart as Fable / GPT 5.6 on things like math and science, but it's lack of handcuffs means that it can show the world what the frontier labs are gatekeeping from you and that starts to build customer resentment and loyalty towards the East, which is probably not what the USG wants.

Interesting times. Interesting times, indeed.

[Fausto Panunzi @FPanunzi]

Non ho parole. La cosa più sfacciatamente corrotta che abbia visto in una democrazia

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@MarcoFattorini Hey, @GiuseppeConteIT gli passi tu le veline o te le passa lui?

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@MarcoFattorini Corrotto o solo stupido? Chissà

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@AB99_WX @BRICSinfo It's a power plant, i.e. an infrastructure.

[Mc Enrie 🇪🇺 @McEnrie]

@guffanti_marco Personaggio schifoso. Pericolosissimo ostaggio di chissà quali leve.

[The Knowledge Archivist @KnowledgeArchiv]

"Every exhausted civilization awaits its barbarian."

—Emil Cioran

[Kyle Ayers @kyleayers]

Not saying that game was stolen from Egypt but it is now on display at museum in London.