Emily McIntyre

Serial Entrepreneur

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@SherryYanJiang @nikitabier Interesting. Checking it out

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@gregisenberg Huh. This is fascinating.

[Nabeel Hyatt @nabeel]

Old CTO-friend.. "Quietly, a majority of senior engineers still resist AI coding, even in AI co's, claiming it doesn't work.

It's because AI coding is closer to the messyness of managing a human than writing code, and most of them were never good at managing humans either." 😜

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@clayhepler In Kansas City the public school system outcomes re unfavorable in most districts. We send our child to a very expensive private school (25k/year) and struggle to do it. If I had more kids I wouldn’t be able, different conversation. For us it is a good move—we assess every year

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@Shpigford Ha!

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@aaditsh AI

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

Just signed agreements for an exciting new venture. Stay tuned!

[GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg]

JPMorgan just raised recession odds to 60%!!

My quick take on what happens next:

1. Layoffs come in waves, not all at once. First round in Q2 (10-15%), then again in Q4 (15-25% more) as companies realize the first cut wasn't deep enough.

2. VCs get quieter. LPs pull back commitments when markets drop, slowing capital calls. Megafunds like a16z weather this fine, but smaller funds feel the squeeze immediately.

3. Corporate spending gets cold/freezes. Every SaaS purchase suddenly needs CFO approval. "Essential" tools become "nice-to-haves."

4. VC-backed startups with high burn rates and 12-18 months of runway begin making tough decisions on headcount. Austerity is cool again!!

5. Consumer businesses face a double whammy: recession-wary customers spending less and tariffs increasing COGS. DTC/ecommerce companies with thin margins get hit hardest of all.

6. Valuations gradually compress. Not overnight, but steadily. Companies that might have raised at 50x ARR might be looking at 10-15x, if they can raise at all.

7. Cash-flowing startups and solo founders/teams of 5 or less thrive. The solo founder renaissance begins. As tech layoffs accelerate, talented people start bootstrapped businesses focused on immediate revenue.

8. AI funding continues to be STRONG and the exception to the rule. While funding tightens across the board, strategic AI investments continue as companies view it as existential technology, not just growth opportunity. The opportunity is just too big.

9. M&A activity spikes as cash-rich companies go bargain hunting. Strategic acquisitions replace growth-stage rounds.

10. Customer acquisition costs temporarily plummet as big spenders pull back from advertising platforms, creating opportunity for counter-cyclical marketers.

11. Public SaaS companies start aggressive bundling, adding more features at the same price to justify renewals and squeeze out smaller competitors.

12. Huge demand around building profitable companies, indiehackers, vibe coding, being Pieter Levels basically.

13. The losers...high-burn DTC brands caught between tariffs and shrinking consumer spending, late-stage startups that prioritized growth over unit economics, companies that raised massive rounds at 100x+ ARR multiples, startups with 6+ month sales cycles, and any business that can't reach profitability before their next planned fundraise.

14. The winners...profitable companies, solo founders with low burn, startups with pricing power, and AI companies solving genuine business problems.

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

My office was a block from this beautiful, ambitious, ill-fated development: Portland’s own Ritz-Carlton. When you take huge risks to bring something beautiful to the world and it fails, everyone thinks they saw it coming. Succeed? They predicted that too. https://t.co/qQZ9SLzUHc

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@X help—I can’t create a new account! Just getting an error message every time I try.

[Z Fellows @zfellows]

Determination is probably the biggest piece of success — Mark Zuckerberg

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@tanhtruong @realEstateTrent Nope

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@x I'm trying to create a new X account and keep getting an error at the end. Can you point me in the right direction please?

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

Though like all accounts biased, this opinion piece by Daniel Haile is an important take on the current Ethiopia-Eritrea situation. https://t.co/cOJSBMBjEK

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

"Survival = Runway" today's word of wisdom from @sethtalbott

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

@caesararum Too, too true

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

"Every ruler who donned the crown came armed with fire and fury, convinced that the only language Ethiopia understands is brute force." https://t.co/QPryJuCzU3

[GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg]

This might be a pretty unpopular post. Story time:

I learned this lesson the hard way that startup equity is worth exactly $0 until the day someone actually buys it from you.

I sold a company for $4M stock. I was told by exec team I was getting a deal. People I looked up to in Silicon Valley. “Worst case you cash out for $4M”. Ended up being worth $0. I was young, foolish and knew nothing about this silicon valley world (i was from canada and the richest people I knew were doctors or lawyers).

The worst part is I even got into debt selling my company. Because I had to pay taxes on the sale so i borrowed money to pay for it. That’s a story for another tweet.

Many years later, I got an offer from WeWork to buy company. They told me the same story. My stock would be worth millions.

I said just give me a cash deal.

Learned the hard way.

When WeWork was crashing, I saw so many people who thought their equity worth millions and it became almost worthless overnight.

People’s dreams shattered.

Private stock is never guaranteed to be worth anything.

That's why I now tell every founder I meet: cash is truth. Stock is a story.

The beauty about startups is that private stock COULD change your life. But think of it as a BONUS, than a sure thing.

That gives you a sober way to make decisions on which companies to join or if you want to start your own.

The reason I'm sharing this is I wish someone had told me this. I hope someone sees this and it helps them rethink or even challenge what they are working on. It can't hurt to at least go through this thought exercise.

(note: nothing against Blake, I think he's awesome, this is just my POV on startup equity)

Don't get drunk on equity.

Crazy to me that this is even a remotely controversial opinion.

[Alex Hormozi @AlexHormozi]

If it looks easy, you don’t understand all the pieces.

If it looks fast, you don’t get what slows it down.

If it looks guaranteed, you’re probably the one getting screwed.

So much of maturing comes down to realizing that great things take time and you’re not the exception.

[Emily McIntyre @McIntyreWrites]

“Certainty is a prison. The more we crave it the more inclined we become to stick to the narrow paths…” Margaret Heffernan’s email this morning celebrating blind singer @Victoriavivace was beautiful.