Mac @McIntyre_M - Twitter Profile

A few things I have learned since I started trading in 1998. This isn't a bullish post or a bearish post, just some key lessons that I have learned over time: - the market knows more than we do. - you will rarely win a fight with the tape - you might get lucky every so often, but luck is tough to duplicate over years. - the S&P 500 averages a 5% pullback every 3 1/2 months and 10% pullback every 11 months, build this into your thinking. $SPY is -6.5% right now from the highs. - most popular stocks, tech and growth, can pullback much more than the index, which for many is why the 5% pullbacks can feel like a blowout. - the index could turn up at any time, when it does, it will show up on the charts. - you don't have to buy at the very bottom or sell at the very top to make a lot of money along the way. - stocks with shallow pullbacks in uptrends are a much different buy than trying to chase stocks down the chart. - charts breaking out in market pullbacks should get top priority. - I don't buy stocks below the 50-day MA. Doesn't make it right or wrong, but it works great for me. - if the charts don't set up the way you want them to, or if high volatility is a concern, it's ok to do no buying or small buying, follow your stops on open positions and wait until you get a better read of the landscape. - I have been buying stocks fairly consistently over the past few weeks, small buys mostly - but it's mostly not the same stocks I was buying 3-6-12 months ago. - I might be adding to my 2024 winners again, or not, the charts will tell me. - charts in uptrends and breaking out work much better for me than charts rolling over into downtrends. - when volatility picks up considerably, reduce your trading activity, reduce your position sizing and reduce "all-in" sector bets. - small losses are better than big losses - also, very often a small position is better than no position, if you have a valid buy signal. - if you want to make aggressive pullback buys, do it small and use stops. If they keep pulling back, stop buying. If the market has a confirmed reversal, look to add on the way back up. - buying a stock "lower" because you think it is going "higher" is not an actual strategy. - waiting until a stock proves itself higher is a strategy than many professionals use. - it doesn't matter what happened last time, or what happens 15 out of the last 20 times, each market is unique and has its own set of circumstances. - the "story" doesn't stay the same forever; you need to pay attention to major new information if the market says it's relevant. - there is always something breaking out somewhere, pay attention to those charts. - where many investors and traders run into difficulty is not managing risk - not using any type of stop loss or risk management, buying and adding to stocks in downtrends, over concentration in tech and growth etc. Over-trading, positions too big. - determine how much you are willing to risk/lose before you take a position and stick to that. - more cash is the only true hedge - everything else has volatility. - for 95% of retail (non-institutions), hedging is a fallacy that won't overcome having no risk management plan. Manage your risk at the buy with stops and correct position sizing. Assume that you will be wrong and define your risk at the buy.

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