McNamara Options, LLC

Execution Brokers for Futures & Options on CME & ICE Exchange.
(Views are my own. Tweets intended for information only. Retweets ≠ endorsements)

[McNamara Options, LLC @McNamaraOptions]

@elonmuskTN 37

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

Retails flows ("Other" in CoT) which trade mean-reversion continue to buffer the impact of momentum-driven CTAs ("Managed Money"). Last week, the two again went in opposite directions across all 6 energy futures.
#oott

[Energy Aspects @EnergyAspects]

"Brent positioning is now net short, that has never ever happened before."

Energy Aspects Founder and Director of Research, Dr Amrita Sen, discusses with @BNNBloomberg 'The Close' how oil bearishness has been overdone.

Watch the interview here https://t.co/bJEmvC0G9X

#EnergyAspects #Oil #OOTT #Markets #Trading

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

My 60-sec view on #OPEC meeting and future of the cuts.
#oott #oil

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Energy investors should tune out geopolitical noise, as they have zero edge in predicting outcomes or even market interpretation of said outcomes, and focus on fundamentals: oil demand is at record highs, global oil inventories have barely built YTD and will soon reach record lows, Summer driving season is nearing, US shale growth is meaningfully slowing, and OPEC is fully in charge as is HRH’s “will and intent.” We believe in a fundamental price of $80 WTI now and likely $90 late Summer…count any political risk premium as “gravy” that accelerates the final stages of deleveraging allowing for 75%-100% of FCF to be returned to investors.

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

#Oil options have been very active but volumes are largely driven by various ratio call spreads, trying to take advantage of relatively low vols and highly elevated call skew (selling). The delta (impact on futures) from these trades is quite low.
#OOTT #options

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

When you can pick up your girls from school with the roof down in February…it’s not looking great for natural gas near-term! We remain medium-term bulls but timing and stock selection key as many gas stocks discounting $3.50/mcf or higher vs. some oil stocks <$60/bbl.

[Alex Longley @alexlongley1]

Oil’s $10 Plunge on Demand Worries Sends Options Into a Tailspin
https://t.co/X7nCF30nTX via @markets #OOTT with @Devikakrishnak

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

Another huge day in #oil options with 240 mb changing hands yesterday. Buckle up for z3 options expiry.
#OOTT

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

The main reason why 99% of successful oil traders only trade spreads or options, and not price.
#OOTT

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

Non-commercials (hedge #funds) are rolling from #WTI (contango) to #Brent (backwardation) to capture the roll-yield. When looking at CoT data, make sure to include "Other".
#OOTT #oil $CL

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

It feels like crying babies when their favorite toy is being taken away when parents know that the real game is anyway in a much larger #oil OTC market that children are not allowed to see.
https://t.co/3DXkRlsgIG
#OOTT #Commodities

[Bloomberg Energy @BloombergNRG]

US natural gas futures fell below $2 for the first time in three years https://t.co/IFNCDQgu6f

[McNamara Options, LLC @McNamaraOptions]

https://t.co/XlrXN0GUX8

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

While I don't disagree with bullish story, with 95% forecasts above the forward curve, it may be time to move to the sidelines. #Oil market has a marvelous history of punishing consensus even when the case sounds logical.
#OOTT

https://t.co/N0lczpDUct

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

While everyone focuses on CTA positioning, more important is that #WTI swap dealers (proxy for OTC producer hedging) are the least short in 5 years. It says that the market is running out of natural commercial sellers which is very bullish.
#OOTT #oil

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

Ongoing producer hedging keeps pressuring longer-dated #WTI. Producers always hedge in Dec before liquidity drops for holidays as they like reporting larger hedge ratios for year-end reports.
#OOTT #oil

[Dr. Ilia Bouchouev @IliaBouchouev]

#Oil price cap seems to be having impact for the wrong reason: it created a chaos in physical flows which pushes financial flows out of the market. Even if the cap is invisible, it still trims enthusiasm among futures buyers.
#OOTT #EnergyCrisis

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Oil trading down $3/bbl because OPEC forecasts oil demand to "only" grow by 2.2MM Bbl/d in 2023? Really?!? Why are so few asking the obvious question: where exactly are the incremental barrels going to come from??? A thread.

[Julia Payne @Julia_AC_Payne]

My latest - EXCLUSIVE Vitol smashes profit records, making more in H1 2022 than FY 2021 #OOTT https://t.co/JlhvEnPkls