Gary Gensler said the law was clearāāvirtually every crypto asset is a securityāāand drove the crypto industry offshore. Now, he says the law is clearāāevent contracts are not derivativesāāand seeks to push the prediction markets offshore. He has a poor track record reading the law.
Event contracts, whether on sports, politics, or any commodity, are within the @CFTCās remit. Weāll regulate these markets accordingly.
šŗ More this morning on @SquawkCNBC š
Excited to partner with Coinbase for the first time to support their dollar savings products. The upcoming integration next week will be the first time Ethena products are available for their 100m+ user base.
Given the evolving nature of the Clarity Act, we expect further potential tailwinds for onchain native products like USDe from idle balances on exchanges, and Ethena is well positioned to support this transition.
Ethena and @coinbase have partnered to grow onchain finance and savings products for their 100m+ userbase, with the first growth initiative launching next week.
Alongside this partnership Coinbase Ventures have also made their first investment into Ethena on the open market.
Calling all crypto lawyers (and the crypto-curious.)
We're 1 week out from PLI's annual full-day crypto program on June 3rd. A lot has changed this year, and this is the room you'll want to hear it from.... š§µ
Shoutout to those who only knew me as "Meat" for years while I was pseudonymous. Some of my oldest friends in the industry and first batch of clients when I went out on my own.
Few riffing thoughts on these points:
1) 35% retention of rips maps about 10% under the typical ~25% "win" rate for most of these platforms - i.e., for Gachas and claws, you'll "lose" by pulling a card worth less than the cost 75-80% of the time. Would make sense that people will immediately cut losses for the most part to recoup some cost, maybe keeping cards close to the rip cost in the hopes of appreciation to fully cover it. It's also true that you'd expect many people who "win" to sell pretty quickly to lock in the gain, but speculators love to hold winners to see if they win harder, so it feels difficult to generalize observations here.
2) Really depends on the consumer. In many cases, yes, I would consider it gambling. Most dealers in the industry won't rip wax for prop purposes and instead sell break spots or hold sealed to sell to speculators later. The chances of ROI on sealed are quite low. Most people who buy to rip are gambling, some are doing it to collect - but most collectors nowadays simply just buy the cards they want because it's more cost effective.
My view generally on these: https://t.co/HI4ITPZ017
3) Agree. Being able to buy and sell tokens with minimal friction is a great use case and I'd love to see this take off more. There are non-blockchain-related platforms doing this now using vaults and accounts (e.g., COMC, which has done this for years) but those haven't reached massive scale for one reason or another. Platforms with smartphone apps will have the edge here.
I will say it's somewhat difficult to cover counterfeiting unless and until there is some implementation at the authenticator/grader level so that you have the entire provenance chain and/or there is a universal authentication standard that is interoperable across these markets.
4) As it stands, existing platforms are not serious competitors to eBay and Goldin. This is especially true as collectors can now buy and sell without ever handling the cards. Users can send purchases from either to their PSA or other vaults, and can then list the item for sale directly on eBay, or send the items to Goldin, Heritage, or wherever else directly. The more vertically integrated the legacy players become, the harder it will be to compete. Blockchain use cases need to provide a true differentiator.
Claiming that Gacha platforms are nothing but repackaged gambling is wrong.
I get why youād think that. I had the same feeling in the beginning too. But when I understood it actually wasnāt, that was the moment I tripled down on liquid $CARDS and doubled down on @Beezie privately.
1) Onchain user behavior tells the opposite story, see @Blockworks data attached. If everyone was just using these platforms for the gamble, the percentage of users keeping their cards should be close to 0%. Instead, itās around 35% for Collector, and private Beezie data Iāve reviewed suggests itās even higher. This clearly shows there are real collectors on these platforms chasing specific cards they actually want to keep. The other 65% are likely just lower tier cards nobody wants.
2) Gachas and claws are essentially nothing but the digital, higher priced version of physical packs. Would you say opening physical packs is gambling? While it obviously gives you those dopamine hits, most people wouldnāt consider it gambling but rather gamification. The same applies to platforms like Collector and Beezie. Collectors want to collect, and they want to have fun doing it. The numbers speak for themselves on how much fun theyāre having.
3) Thinking beyond their digital pack experiences, the tokenization infrastructure of these platforms and their marketplaces are the perfect example of how blockchain rails can disrupt traditional markets and improve them by one to two orders of magnitude. Every collector knows the pain of high fees, slow shipping, unnecessary customs taxes, painful counterfeiting and a market that is clearly limited by borders and global inaccessibility. Onchain alternatives solve all of this.
4) The only reason onchain alternatives havenāt replaced their broken competitors like eBay and Goldin yet is distribution and liquidity. As we all know, this takes time, and the Gacha and claw mechanic is the perfect catalyst to accelerate the migration of card supply onchain. This will create a reflexive positive feedback loop: as more supply moves onchain, traditional collectors will eventually be forced to follow, simply because thatās where the better selection and better deals will be.
Could talk about this all day, but I think the message is clear. Donāt be the midcurver putting onchain collectible platforms in the wrong bucket just because you feel like the train has already left the station.
It hasnāt. Not even close.
Dylan Harper's most expensive card is now $52,000 more than Tim Duncan's.
Harper: 11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.9 APG as a rookie this season.
Duncan:
- 5x NBA Champion
- 3x Finals MVP
- 15x All-NBA
- 2x MVP
- HOF Class of 2020
Make it make sense š
Primary observation from the onchain TCG rush in progress right now is it's startlingly similar to the NFT cycle in so many ways.
It's not about owning or trading the cards themselves, per se. It's the Gachas, pack rips, and similar - the thrill of "minting" / ripping wax, but onchain. It's not necessarily the outcome people are buying, but the experience.
I don't know that most actually care what it is they're ripping. It's fun, it's a gamble, and it's dopamine. The subsequent trading volume is probably largely driven by users selling their rips, whether at a gain or loss.
In that business, you will almost never ROI on a rip, and certainly won't over time. It's also not something that creates a sustainable or healthy market for the underlying in the long term.
As a lover of cardboard, it's fun that these onchain use cases are driving tons of interest (and value) to the market, but would love to see less gamification focus and more building towards platforms actual hobbyists are drawn to.
Summary of TCG projects on web3 (IMO)
1. @Collector_Crypt - No.1 in on-chain volume and revenue. Runs on Solana. Already has a token, price has pumped more than 4x from the bottom. (Team said they will use profits to buy back the token, but havenāt executed yet.)
2. @phygitals ā No.2 on-chain, runs on Solana. Has a points system, focuses on opening grail packs. Suitable for high-capital players. Cheap packs are quite hard to profit from, based on my experience.
3. @renaissxyz ā Runs on BNB Chain. Has a Badge system and limited packs with very high profit potential (probably the highest among all projects Iāve tried).
Token is confirmed. CEO is very hardworking. Iām very bullish.
4. @ripdotfun ā Runs on Base. Has a points system, and the Base ecosystem seems to support it.
Also appears to have some form of partnership with Phygitals.
5. @gacha_game_ ā Runs on Abstract. Has a points system. Team is from Sosleek, and Iām quite confident they have strong funding and connections.
6. @shinylabs ā Runs on Abstract. Has a points system. Seems like the Abstract team is supporting it.
7. @packflipNFT ā Runs on Sonerium. No comment.
8. @onemoarchance ā Recently raised $3.2M, backed by Arbitrum. Still in beta, not much to do yet, but has a points system and quests.
9. @Rosentica ā Not directly building a TCG machine, but will launch a game called One Arena, where various on-chain cards can be used in gameplay. Likely coming soon.
10. @reverse_tcg ā On Monad, supported by the Monad team. From my research, possibly the same team as Lootgo. They mentioned being based in Japan and are preparing to launch a beta app soon.
11. @Slabzapp ā Initially allowed free card competitions, but now shifted to earning points from opening cards to compete for cards instead. Not sure who is behind the team, I couldnāt find information.
12. @pulldotfun ā Supported by @BasedOneX . Has a points system and confirmed token distribution for those who stake Based and their users
Currently in beta. I got a waitlist spot but couldnāt access it for some reason.
If anyone knows other projects I didnāt mention, feel free to share
p.s. I didn't count Courtyard š
We looked into Polymarket's presence in Panama, obtained its government paperwork and visited its headquarters in Panama City.
There was no sign of Polymarket. Nobody had heard of Polymarket there.
After more digging, we found that more than a dozen other crypto companies were not just incorporated there but also claim the address as their HQ.
Turns out, SBF even did business with the the office listed as Polymarket's HQ, which is a law firm that ignored all of our requests for comment.
https://t.co/FZSeRa8orS
We're at a point in this saga where the only rational explanation left for the lottery existing at all is the NBA needing a lever to direct where future stars land
In the 1st pic, KD & Steph were in high school. LeBron's head coach was in college. SGA was 8 years old. Cooper Flagg wasn't even born.
LeBron averaged 31-7-7 for a 50 win team with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden & Donyell Marshall as his 3 best teammates. Was MVP runner-up & 1 game from the Conference Finals.
Nobody else compares.
Outstanding write up. Products have really gotten out of hand over the last 5-7 years IMO - the amount of manufactured āscarcityā is going to burn so many people over time.
2025 Topps Chrome NFL Analysis & Deep Dive
With NFL Chrome being one of the most hyped releases of the year, I figure there might be a few more eyeballs than usual on this one.
So maybe we tone it down a bit. Be professional. Show some class. Talk about all the things we appreciate about this long-awaited, masterful Chrome release. Keep it clean. Keep it polished. Ease people into the Squatch experience.
Yeahā¦that sounds like the responsible thing to do.
And that's precisely why...ā¦weāre not doing that.
Weāre cranking the spice all the way up.
Because after all this time, Chrome Football is finally here. And there's a lot going on with this monstrosity. Some of it could even be called good.
But thereās also a whole lot in this product thatās got the Squatch's butt hole puckering.
So grab a Snickers. This one's massive. And may have a surprise or two.
Welcome to 2025 Topps Chrome NFL.
If you need more product breakdowns like this in your life, please consider following me on Substack, where I have my entire archive of 100+ product breakdowns in a much more navigable format.
https://t.co/ItcNNc6mz9
Total cards in the product:
97,218,332
Let's compare this to its two closest Chrome cousins:
2025 Topps Chrome MLB- 67,711,000 total cards
2025/26 Topps Chrome NBA- 89,850,600 total cards
To absolutely no one's surprise, this one beats them both. NBA Chrome broke the printing presses for a Chrome release. This one ran over them with a bulldozer. Somehow, I don't think this surprises too many people. You want to know something that will?
Even though Topps squeezed over 7 million (8.2%) more cards into NFL Chrome than NBA, there are fewer base cards in the NFL release. A LOT fewer. Let's compare.
Production by card type:
2026/26 NBA Chrome:
Total Inserts- 7,317,126
Total Parallels- 8.929,624
Total Autos- 405,410
Total Base- 73,198,440
Base cards per player (299 card CL)- 244,811
2025 Topps Chrome NFL:
Total Inserts- 11,858,048 (+62%)
Total Parallels- 25,960,373 (+190.7%)
Total Autos- 441,420 (+8.9%)
Total Base- 58,958,491 (-19.5%)
Base cards per player (300 card CL)- 157,683
Base Rookies per player (100 card CL)- 116,535
If there's one thing you take away from this breakdown, this should be it.
Topps is attempting to make this massive product feel loaded. That's why you see a litany of all new parallels, most of them garbage, of the high-numbered or unnumbered variety.
In some products, more parallels actually made the product better (Bowman's Best, Bowman Chrome). In others, they absolutely nuked all the value (2025 Topps Chrome MLB). With the preposterous prices you'll have to pay to acquire hobby formats, this product needs all the help it can get.
Unfortunately, this ain't it. We need more than a massive watered-down checklist and list of parallels resembling a CVS receipt to make that happen.
Total production by format:
Since we all have NBA Chrome fresh on our mind, I will add how each of these compares to its production in parentheses.
Hobby- 103,754 boxes <8,646 cases> (-0.7%)
Jumbo- 32,036 boxes <4,005 cases> (-7.5%)
Jumbo First Day Issue- 1,248 boxes <156 cases> (N/A)
Breaker's Delight- 37,870 boxes <6,312 cases> (+20.7%)
Value- 1,376,019 boxes <34,400 cases> (+18.2%)
Mega- 691,539 boxes <34,577 cases> (+12.8%)
Hangers- 917,076 <14,329 cases> (+81.3%)
Fanatics Megas- 30,068 boxes <1,503 cases> (0%)
As you can see, among Hobby formats, Breaker's Delight is the only one that spiked...because of course it did.
Retail formats crept up slightly, aside from Hangers, which exploded. Anyone else remember that all-too-short moment in time where we all went ape on those freaking glorious NBA Chrome Hangers? Might want to take a seat and prepare yourself for disappointment. More on that momentarily.
Also, there is a Sapphire SKU which I will address in the future as it gets closer to release.
Hit Rates:
For some reason, Topps has been overly descriptive with these. Their stated expectations generally line up with the odds, but there are some exceptions.
Hobby- 1 Auto, 12 parallels, 13.6 inserts, 3.6 numbered cards. (The math shows less parallels than Topps says, but more numbered cards than the stated 2. Overall we're really close, though.)
Jumbo- 2 Autos, 21.5 parallels, 18.5 inserts, 6.6 numbered cards (Again, I'm showing slightly fewer overall parallels than the stated 23, but more numbered cards. Overall numbers match though.)
Breaker's- 2 Autos, 9 parallels, 1 insert per 5 boxes, 3 numbered cards
Value boxes- 1 Auto per 18.25 boxes (2.2/case), 8 parallels 2.7 inserts, 3.5 boxes per numbered card
Megas- 1 Auto per 8.9 boxes (2.25/case), 14 parallels, 5.3 inserts, 1.75 boxes per numbered card
Hangers- 1 Auto per 29 boxes (2.2/case), 4 parallels, 2.6 inserts, 6.8 boxes per numbered card
Fanatics Mega- 1 Auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7/case), 17 parallels, 5.1 inserts, 1.6 boxes per numbered card
Value Map:
Pricing on this one is messy.
If I base Hobby SKUs on drop pricing, it doesnāt help much- we all know our chances of actually landing an EQL win are basically zero. But using secondary prices isnāt much better since the secondary market is wild.
On top of that, Jumbo pricing is still a bit of a mystery. We know Hobby is jumping $50 per box from pre-order, but Topps hasnāt clarified what Jumbo will land at on the drop.
So hereās where Iām landing:
Hobby at expected drop pricing, $400.
Jumbo at $700 (pre-order was $650).
Fanatics Megas at $80.
Retail formats at standard pricing for Value, Mega, and Hangers.
Breaker's Delight won't be included in this format.
Itās not perfect, but itās the cleanest baseline weāve got right now. I will be attaching an editable spreadsheet to my Substack if you'd like to keep up with values as prices change.
$/card:
1) Hangers- $1.00
2) Value boxes- $1.43
3) Megas- $1.67
4) Fanatics Megas- $1.90
$/parallel:
1) Fanatics Megas- $4.71
Tie-
2) Value- $5.00
2) Mega- $5.00
2) Hanger- $5.00
$/auto:
1) Jumbo- $350
2) Hobby- $400
3) Fanatics Mega- $432
4) Hangers- $580
$/# card:
1) Jumbo- $106.06
2) Hobby- $110.80
3) Megas- $122.50
4) Fanatics Megas- $128
Best formats:
At drop pricing, for autos Jumbo is a clear winner, followed by Hobby.
Once those reach $800+ for Hobby & $1,400+ for Jumbo, as in about 5 minutes after they drop, then Fanatics Megas end up being the cheapest way to pull autos. Unfortunately, the most desirable autos are only in Hobby formats, and as I mentioned earlier, so are the best inserts.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. Even at drop pricing, Megas are the best format across the board for parallels, including Rookies and Image Variations.
As we saw with NBA Chrome, even retail formats can catch fire eventually. But since these are actually cheaper than those, they'll likely disappear from shelves quicker.
If I'm ranking retail formats for overall value, it's:
1) Fanatics Megas
2) Megas
3) Hangers
4) Value Boxes
For all my Hanger die hards who are in denial like me, allow me to include one more metric to drive home the fact that hangers are not the bangers they were with NBA Chrome.
For NBA Chrome Hangers, I created a little metric I like to call "Quality Hits". It involved evaluating the density of lower numbered parallels, inserts, and autos. A detailed description can be found on my end-of-year analysis from January. What this did is allowed me to measure the strength of "Quality Hits" in a format in relation to the spend. For context, with NBA Chrome Hangers, you could expect a Quality Hit to fall 1 in every 6.75 Hangers.
In NFL Chrome, that number is 1 in 22.1 Hangers. Meaning you have to rip 3Ć as many to get a low-numbered quality hit. If you're ripping, Megas are a safer play than Hangers.
Hobby vs. Retail:
Since secondary pricing is already absurd for Hobby formats, it's very valid to analyze what can actually be pulled from retail. I've already seen many comments that nothing of value can be pulled from retail. However, I have to disagree with that to an extent.
Here are desirable chases that CAN ONLY be pulled from Hobby formats- Team Camo Variation, Game Genies, Tecmo Inserts or Autos, Kaiju, Radiating Rookies, Chrome Etch Variation, 1990 Topps Autos, Chromographs, Future Stars Autos, Legends Autos, Hall of Chrome Autos, Dual Autos, Rookie Patch Autos
These can be pulled from BOTH Hobby & Retail formats- Helix, Let's Go!, Ultraviolet, Lightning Leaders, Shadow Etch, Rookie Variation Autos, Base Variation Autos
And these can ONLY be pulled from Retail formats- Lightboard Logo, Fanatical, Urban Legends, Retail Rookie Autos, First Year Fabric, Rookie Relics
Retail is definitely going to be a tougher path to massive hits.
My favorite new addition, Kaiju (think old-school Japanese monsters like Godzilla & Mothra), is going to be wildly popular. Naturally, you wonāt find them in retail. Same story with Tecmo, which already has a cult following. Hobby formats only. The Bo Jackson auto in that subset is going to slap.
That said, retail isnāt a wasteland by any stretch. There are still plenty of desirable inserts and parallels to chase. And if youāre accustomed to Panini retail, just know Topps tends to run laps around that experience.
What's Missing?
Curiously, this absolute unit of an odds sheet left out a couple of pivotal subsets. The 5-card NFL Honors Gold Shield Autos and the 98-subject Rookie Premiere Patch Autos. You knowā¦just the biggest chases in the entire product.
This is usually where I break down how many of those land in each format. Normally, that means a heavy concentration in Breakerās, Hobby, and Jumbo, with a few scraps tossed into retail.
Not this time.
Unless Topps decides to update the odds sheet, thereās nothing to break down, which is frustrating.
One more omission that everyone probably expected, but still stings. No Mahomes autos.
As a Chiefs season ticket holder, that one hurts. Panini still has him locked up. Weāve got roughly 745 signers in this product, and somehow the one I actually want isnāt one of them. Hopefully that changes soon. Because the Panini products that do include him? One is priced higher than an actual rookie auto, and the other is a dumpster fire that advertises autos, but not really.
What Would the Squatch Do?
Is this stuff overpriced? Absolutely.
Does that matter? Not really.
We currently have way worse recent Panini NFL products going for more than what these will in early secondary pricing. That will correct sooner than later though.
If you somehow dodge the odds and land Hobby or Jumbo through EQL, thatās free money. Iāll be right there with you, submitting my entry and preparing to take the usual L. If you hit, itās an easy flip. Or better yet, stash it and let time do the work.
As for ripping it?
Not for me. Lighting money on fire does not give me joy. But if that's you, no judgment. Hobby how you hobby.
Just understand what youāre signing up for. A lot of these boxes are going to hurt. Especially if youāre paying secondary market prices.
As for retail, I learned my lesson from NBA Chrome. As much as I hated the pricing, I should have bought every box I saw in the wild, and there were thousands of them.
With this, if I see it, Iām buying it. For me, the plan is simple. Accumulate. Marinate. Re-evaluate when the supply tightens.
I definitely want to be part of the circus. You just won't catch me ripping any of it. All sealed and singles for me.
Print Runs:
Base- ~157,685 ea
Base Rookies- ~116,535 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractor- ~19,750 ea
Xfractor- ~8,070 ea
Hot Pink Xfractor- ~4,035 ea
Lime Green Xfractor- ~1,615 ea
Raywave- ~6,420 ea
Red, White & Blue- ~3,210 ea
Football Leather- ~3,210 ea
Prism- ~1,210 ea
Geometric- ~65 ea
Topps Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Pulsar- ~8,970 ea
Team Camo- ~82 ea
Lightboard Logo- ~220 ea
Rookie Refractor- ~28,710 ea
Rookie Xfractor- ~9,680 ea
Rookie Hot Pink Xfractor- ~4,840 ea
Rookie Lime Green Xfractor- ~1,730 ea
Rookie Raywave- ~6,880 ea
Rookie Red, White & Blue- ~3,440 ea
Rookie Football Leather- ~3,440 ea
Rookie Prism- ~1,330 ea
Rookie Geometric- ~380 ea
Rookie Topps Refractor- ~525 ea
Rookie Pulsar- ~9,830 ea
Rookie Team Camo- ~82 ea
Rookie Lightboard Logo- ~220 ea
Image Variation- ~975 ea
Rookie Image Variation- ~975 ea
Chrome Base Etch Variation- ~90 ea
Chrome Rookies Etch- ~90 ea
Inserts:
Radiating Rookies (20 card CL)- ~265
Shadow Etch (30 card CL0- ~265
1975 Topps (35 card CL)- ~36,470
1975 Topps Refractor- ~16,855
1975 Topps Xfractor- ~3,550
Future Stars (25 card CL)- ~37,520
Future Stars Refractor- ~17,000
Future Stars Xfractor- ~3,520
Power Players (40 card CL)- ~37,935
Power Players Refractor- ~17,110
Power Players Xfractos- ~3,560
All-Chrome Team (25 card CL)- ~37,520
All-Chrome Team Refractor- ~17,000
All-Chrome Team Xfractor- ~3,520
Fortune 15 (35 card CL)- ~36,470
Fortune 15 Refractor- ~16,855
Fortune 15 Xfractor- ~3,550
Legends of the Gridiron (40 card CL)- ~37,935
Legends of the Gridiron Refractor- ~17,110
Legends of the Gridiron Xfractor- ~3,560
Helix (30 card CL)- ~100
Game Genies (25 card CL)- ~200
Tecmo (23 card CL)- ~210
Kaiju (10 card CL)- ~200
Let's Go! (5 card CL)- ~45
Ultraviolet (20 card CL)- ~625
Lightning Leaders (20 card CL)- ~620
Fanatical (30 card CL)- ~430
Urban Legends (30 card CL)- ~430
Unnumbered Autos:
Rookie Variation Autos (94 card CL)- ~615 ea
Retail Rookie Autos (38 card CL)- ~125 ea
Rookie Patch Autos (38 card CL)- ~205 ea
Relics:
First Year Fabric (19 card CL)- ~2,630 ea
Rookie Relics (38 card CL)- ~2,625 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromeNFL