Meet Mehta

Growth Investor

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

Onemi Technologies:
Aum: +61% YoY croesses 8000cr mark.

Asset quality:
GNPA: 2.25% (-135bps YoY, +13bps QoQ)
NNPA: 0.365 ( stable YoY & QoQ)
Credit costs: 8.85%(Q1FY26) -->7.02%(Q4) --> 6.80%(Q1FY27)

Collection Efficicency: 96.82%

Yields for overall portfolio coming down as LAP & loans to high-quality customers increases in overall pie.

NIMS are under pressure as the focus remains on attracting good quality customers, which remain on the platform for a longer period of time. NIMS to remain under pressure.

ROA & ROE remains at 5% & 21.2% resp.

So, the entire business is transforming towards good quality customers who remain on the platform for a longer period of time and uses different products giving higher returns.

3 levers to maintain desired levels of ROA's & ROE's
1. Credit costs will moderate on good quality customers.
2. Cost of Funds moderating on good asset quality.
3. Operating Leverage benefits (Platform Play)

Their tech behind the loans origination & underwriting is very strong and they are very prudent on maintaining strong asset quality. They have already identified 450 pin codes of early stress and stopped disbursements in Q4 out of which 180 pin codes restarted on situation normalizing.

They have got approvals for MF distribution so that will have additional fee incomes going forwards. Plans to add more products on distribution side with new products in lending side as well.

On-Book AUM: Off-Book: 46.4: 53.6

One of the strongest plays in digital lending ecosystem with strong emphasis on underwriting, prudence risk management.

Targeting 40-50% AUM growth for next few years, with ROA & ROE to remain at 5% and 20% kind of levels.

They are able to identify 2.5X better, the risks than the credit scores through their internal models having around 7600 variables.

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Epack Prefab Q1 Updates:
Rev growth of 24% YoY
Margins moderated to 9.4% due to rise in raw material prices. Major of their contracts are fixed in nature so steep increase in prices is putting pressures in margins.

Guidance: Guided for 1950cr topline (implies 27-30% growth), Margins around 10.5-11.5%.

Very Hard to make money when sector is facing headwinds+ Growth moderating.

Initially during their maiden earning's call they were confident of achieving 30-35% kind of topline growth, then growth rates were revised to lower band of the targets.

Structurally the demand for these pre-fab buildings are huge as these are heavily demanding in manufacturing setups. Fast & affordable solution with very minimal headache of managing the construction work provides huge tailwinds, but execution needs to be strong.

The one executing will get rewarded, lets see how other players did in Q1.

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GSM Foils: Firing Incident
Key takeways from my experience

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To correct 32cr is the correct figure

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

https://t.co/dUlF3l6ipS

After digging deep firing happened 6 days back, this video suggests attack was planned by Sagar bhanushali, he had taken some 132cr from mohan singh parmar. Tried to get rid off him so the money he owed has not to be paid.

Lalach buri bala hai!! Done for the business.

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

Last few days have given me a very strong signal on risk management. (My mentor too guided me)

Adding more to the one delivering exceptional is good but where to pause is equally important. 2 learnigs from my side.

I straight away added EFC(bigger chunk than usual, in one go) and had a lot of expectation with them,they did deliver 2-3 qtrs after I added, then comes a slowdown from 100%+ to 30% that was the time I needed to exit because if I look at other peers, they did exceptionally good despite having a bigger base so why should I not reward them was a Question?

Management did not feel the growth has moderated drastically, and their guidance was kind of muted with base that they had. So, I simply exited.

Now comes SABKA PYAARA GSM, I have tracking it from last 5qtrs with growth being delivered every qtr which they guided, here my positions were controlled so yesterday's fall did not actually mattered but when I saw these rumors and all this makes me think to remain extremely vigilant on the allocation.

Markets have their own way of teaching. Very grateful to get these learning so early. Would surely try to improve and learn from these so that going forward such things can be avoided.

Key Takeaways
Adding with execution is very important but where to take pause is equally very important.
Don't rush to buy big, with execution, conviction compounds and if things go wrong early you do not take a big hit.

Manage you positions according that even if some stocks in your PF goes for a toss you remain unaffected.

Best companies can also go for a toss, always underestimate your research that I can go wrong.

Having 30-35 stocks, even 40 with very high pace of growth is much better than having 20 stocks with higher allocation

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

Aditya Vision Q1 Updates & Concall Highlights:
They are into Retail distribution of electric products like AC, refrigerators, laptops, mobiles, washing machine etc etc.

They are currently penetrated in Bihar (72%), UP (16%), Jharkhand (11%), expanding in UP, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal & Madhya Pradesh.

Rev growth: 26.8% YoY
Ebitda growth: 38.7% YoY
Pat growth: 40% YoY
SSSG Improved to 18% for Q1.
Demand across July remains positive, Q1 has seen some moderation on the back of higher LPG prices and inflationary pressure, so the discretionary spends were postponed.

ASP Growth: 8% with Volume growth of 19%. Asp growth mainly because of the price hikes in mobile and laptops category.

They are targeting more than 30 stores this year in new geographies. 10-12 in Chhattisgarh+ 6-10 in each M.P. & W.B.

Margins to remain stable at 15-16% GM & 8-10% in OPM.
Inventory has moderated with inventory shortages at OEM side.

Overall, company delivered very good numbers despite muted demand scenario.

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@Gopal_Chitlangi Aadhar's numbers are disappointing, aavas, aptus and canfin se to yhi ummed thi. Home first did well. India first se ache numbers ki ummedhai

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@Vismaya9999 Very high risk

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Update!!
Co-founder in police custody, let's see further updates

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Update on GSM foils: There is absolutely no clarity on the news floating in the market about the promoters involved in financial troubles. Motive about the Firing & all.

Will have to wait & watch what's happening on ground.

I still have GSM in my PF, gunshots did not worry me, the news on financial trouble between the promoters is worrying me. Need Clarity ASAP. Another bomb comes after this LC, CS resigning.

Another point on negative cashflows which is being raised is not a point of concern as the nature of business demands that. With scale they will sort it out but currently they will remain negative on that part.

This particular thing is teaching me a very crucial lesson that risk management and allocation matter more than picking a stock.
Very good company can also have major problems which is very dangerous for our PF's.

My major goal would be to protect my capital, let's wait this weekend if things go in the wrong direction, exiting will be the best option, I can re-entre later if things stabilizes.

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

Update on GSM foils: There is absolutely no clarity on the news floating in the market about the promoters involved in financial troubles. Motive about the Firing & all.

Will have to wait & watch what's happening on ground.

I still have GSM in my PF, gunshots did not worry me, the news on financial trouble between the promoters is worrying me. Need Clarity ASAP. Another bomb comes after this LC, CS resigning.

Another point on negative cashflows which is being raised is not a point of concern as the nature of business demands that. With scale they will sort it out but currently they will remain negative on that part.

This particular thing is teaching me a very crucial lesson that risk management and allocation matter more than picking a stock.
Very good company can also have major problems which is very dangerous for our PF's.

My major goal would be to protect my capital, let's wait this weekend if things go in the wrong direction, exiting will be the best option, I can re-entre later if things stabilizes.

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

DP Abhushan – Concall Notes
Expansion Strategy
Targeting 51 stores by FY31.
Mix will be largely towards COCO & 4-5 FOCO.

Dahod (Gujarat): First store outside Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh.
Jabalpur: First FOCO store.

Had Inventory gains of ~10–11%.
Store expansion needs to be tracked closely: Around 7–8 stores COCO + 1 FOCO expected every year for next 4-5 years to reach the target of 51 stores.

Outlook
Volume growth of ~10% possible if gold prices stabilize.
Only 2–3 stores were added over the last two years, so execution of expansion remains an important monitorable. Growth may be moderated as store addition was muted in last 2 years.

PNGS REVA Diamonds
Revenue: +120% YoY
EBITDA: +193% YoY
PAT: +265% YoY
Very solid sets of numbers.

Store Expansion
Current network: 37 stores
3 COCO + 34 SIS (Shop-in-Shop with PNGS)

Expansion plan: Add 15 stores (2 already added) over the next 2 years through COCO route.
Company appears on track to open 15 stores by FY28.

Margins
Q1 margins were exceptionally strong due to lower marketing expenses.
Marketing spend is likely to increase in Q2–Q4 as business activity picks up.
Long-term PAT margin expectation: 20–23%.
Higher store additions willhave a drag of opex but large expenses would be coming off from marketing exp.

Expansion & Competitive Position
Expanding across South and West India, especially metro cities.
Faces relatively lower competition from LGD as they are into smaller diamonds and they have similar pricing as of LGD. Focus is on small diamonds.

LGD are for larger carat diamonds as they are expensive so consumers are going for cheaper LGDs.

One Risk I see with both PNGS Gargi & PNGS REVA is the management overlap that they have. Amit Modak who is closely associated with PNGS is the leader behind both these brands and his son is also along with him.
I need that they have separate professional management so that their vision and mission is not diluted and also the focus remains on scaling respective businesses.

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Q1FY27 Updates: Timex, Vintage coffee, Blackbuck( Zinka logistics), Capri global

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EFC(1) Q1 updates & concall Highlights:
Rev growth: 29% YoY
Ebitda growth: 20% YoY
Pat growth: 50% YoY

Segmental Performance:
Leasing: 29% YoY
Design N build: 29% YoY
Furniture: 128% YoY.

They already have 228cr worth of orders for their DnB vertical and targeting around 50% growth YoY.

For leasing they are targeting an 18-20K Income generating seats on a base of 84K, 20-25K will be the total seats added. They are at 90% occupancy with 95% retention, and the clients avg tenure is increasing as they mature with them. The have one of the best occupancies across coworking space.

Furniture will continue to perform in line with Q1 performance. They are targeting an ebitda margins of 25% higher than org ebitda with capacity ramping to 65-70% in coming qtrs.

They are also investing in the properties and then building the space so the benefit of appreciation can also be taken into accounts. major capex of DnB is taken by landlords which make them more capital efficient. Bottom line can be enhanced with boking these properties after few years of holding.

They were targeting around 30-35% CAGR growth for next few years.

Disclosure: I exited my positions at a loss as the expectations were not met, I had invested as they were growing at much faster pace and that growth would not be continued anymore.
Peers in the same space are doing much better, and the expectations with them is much more with lower base.

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

Thangamayil jewellery Q1 Updates:
Rev growth: 71% YoY,
Pat growth: 86% YoY

QoQ o decline does not matter as Q1 is seasonally a weaker qtr, what matters is margins which declined as the share of Schemes and discounted part of gold sales reached 53% of the total sales.

These schemes give you visibility of forwards sales but also comes with lesser margins.

Company is faced moderation in demand in first 28Days of Q2, because of falling gold prices. They did say the postponed demand will come back as prices of gold settles.

They also stated that their geography is facing problems in getting remittances which their family members send them from middle east which got impacted because of Iran-Us tension. So geographic concentration was also a problem for them.

But what I do not like about thingamajig is their store additions are very weak. They added mere 4 stores last year and 6 are in pipeline for this year. How they will be growing if they do not grow their geographical presence.

Market is just discounting future growth that may be moderated and was already trading at much higher valuations than peers. Other peers have not reported any slowdown need to check with other players as well.

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Many are complaining about Timex and Vintage Q1 Results are not that great.

This can be subjective for everyone, I feel the results are good Timex had a large base last Q1 & Vintage had done very good volumes (You need to look at ebitda & not revenue growth as they are in commoditized business where revenue fluctuations would be there). And this is real business happening on ground. One has to have flexibility in terms of looking at businesses.

If you feel results are not that great, trim or exit the company. Future needs to be looked & your conviction in that business needs to be checked.

This all things were there in Q3 also when TIMEX reported 25-26% kind of growth and everyone had negative views on it. If you don't have conviction, one would have already exited at 350ish kind of level.

So, what you understand and have conviction stay invested, businesses are dynamic and should be looked in that manner.

If you don't feel good, you have sell button for tomorrow 9am.

Good night, Guys have a lot of things for tomorrow. BYE!!

[Meet Mehta @Meet_Mehta24]

@PulkitA30298377 Others are growing and no such things alluded by others

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Q1FY27 Updates: PN Gadgil, CCL products & Home first finance

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Good Updates!!

TIMEX