Goldman Sachs "peak dealer gamma near 7,800, room for more vol compression". on the opposite front Nomura sees a higher vol floor.
Updated levels, ATM Vol and GEX π
Change in skew as been impressive. We moved to call bias. Drop in vol on puts helped the market move higher.
Back in positive gamma with updated intraday levels $SPX
Gold: Here you have 5 signals CTA (Machines) Q-Score Momentum (Quant Momentum Tool) Gamma Levels (option positioning GC) blind spots (all other gold assets) and Swing levels (other quant tool).
They all seem to confirm the same thing
(thread)
Markets already expect a hike in December and two more by June, so most of that is already in the price (positioning seems to confirm that). The risk is a surprise. If Fridayβs inflation data comes in hot and investors start betting on a bigger December hike, holding gold gets more expensive and the dollar gets stronger at the same time. Both work against gold, and $4,000 is the level to watch. So this is a further confirmation of what Q data is telling us.
Next couple of days could be bumpy for gold
Gold: Here you have 5 signals CTA (Machines) Q-Score Momentum (Quant Momentum Tool) Gamma Levels (option positioning GC) blind spots (all other gold assets) and Swing levels (other quant tool).
They all seem to confirm the same thing
(thread)
There are two important events coming up: PPI and 30Y auction. Gold doesnβt pay interest, so holding it has a cost. Many big investors borrow money to own it, and they pay interest on that loan the whole time. Right now that works out to about $158 a year for each ounce, at around $4,055 an ounce. When the Fed raises rates, the cost goes up, each quarter point hike adds about $10 an ounce a year.
@chigrl Interestingly option positioning while still red and in negative gamma is not cascading as one would have thought. CTAs are short but not shorting like crazy.
SPX sits in a dense level zone: its close 7,521.26 is between Put Support 0DTE (7,520) and HVL 0DTE (7,540) below, and Call Resistance 0DTE (7,550)
If you add Blind Spots and 1D Expected Move you can clearly see a well defined.
PS: still in negative gamma.
@DavidInglesTV Wide today. Based on vol it could go all the way down to 162. But 170 is the big one. Most puts are there. Now, question is whether those get rolled down.
@MenthorqGL@MenthorQpro You called it @MenthorqGL. CPI came in hot at 0.4%, Waller backed December, and the Nasdaq-100 still closed only down 0.6% after a 449-point swing. The hike was mostly in the price.