25BPS : 87.1% of probability, 5 days ago there was 70.5% probability of 50BPS, it looks like the latest News on $SVB is "reversing the probability" , we notice how any News foolishly impacts the markets . This is for me an additional confirmation on my bias .
for the moment everything is going for the best 👌🏽 I look forward to next week's numbers. the numbers haven't even fallen yet that sp500 falls 5.73% Since March 6. The fear is here , if the figures are really not good For inflation we can fall very hard.
https://t.co/wbZeFewcJt
BREAKING: Futures now see a 53% chance of a 50 bps rate hike in March.
We now have a near 35% chance that rates go to 6.00%+ this summer!
Just a month ago, odds of a 50 bps rate hike were 1% and peak rates were expected at 5.25%.
The Fed pivoted, from hawkish to more hawkish.
Currently the 1Y yield Bond are at 5.026%, there is more risk to inject your money on US Bond 1Y (1 year) than on US Bond 30Y (30 years), the risk is still present.
I'll revise my forecasts. but for now on the LT I'm still bearish.If I get taken out I will try again with a little more patience and more confirmation of my bias.