Merlin

The Fool that does not belong to this era.

@moonsamaNFT believer. $SAMA accumulator.

[Merlin @MerlinSparrow]

My very first NFT in the crypto space. I was about to delist it, but someone bought it.

Mint price - FREE/airdrop

Tbh, idk what to feel. I'm happy to have made money, but also sad that I parted ways with this guy. A lot of memories made for sure.

So this is how it feels..

[MoonsamaTracker @moonsama_nftbot]

Moonsama #19 has been sold for 75.0 $MOVR!

[Cobie @cobie]

What a strange year. Merry Christmas to the seventeen remaining believers. I am hopeful that 2026 favours us more than 2025 did.

[ً @trading_axe]

Ideal scenario for Q4:

BTC to hold 90K.

ETH to hold 3K.

Both chop and slowly get above their 10/10 wicks.

Altcoins start to outperform.

Bears fades the strength shown by selective alts because "the cycle is over" and it's "just exit pumps!"

Bears waited three~ years for this exact moment but because it's been so difficult to time,

They miss out on the easiest HYPERACCELERATED GAINS of the entire cycle.

Oftentimes, bears aren't really bearish.

They're bulls who stubbornly became bearish [resentful/doomer-minded] after getting burnt waiting for the right environment to play.

Not a bad place to deploy shekels for the hopeful.

~ Dr. Axius.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

kind of market where if you've managed to yield $0 PnL, you've outperformed >90% of people

doing nothing is a superpower

cheers and goodluck.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

for the most part this market has been about being extremely flexible, and more focused on short term trading. bc sustained moves over a long period of time for any alt have not been extremely consistent. There have been brief narratives, lasting 2 weeks at most in most cases before the moves unwind and this has basically been how this market has traded for some time

the downside has remained the same as always, things going to zero, while the upside has been very limited vs past cycles except the occasional runners. There's just a lack of real liquidity in the market it feels like. And even less so now. DATS provided the best trades over the summer but even those are pretty weak now.

i think for any meaningful thing to happen in alts this line in the sand has to be reclaimed which really goes without saying. We did an underside retest this week and rejected. Perhaps we get another stab at it soon, and perhaps we don't. Nobody knows. But I think for now this should be the bias for risk taking with whatever size is to you. it is relative to everyone.

This should line up with BTC at about 115-116k if we get that again

For BTC the line in the sand currently is 108-109k for the downside, and 115-116k reclaim for continuation to new highs. For the downside we can trade below that briefly, minutes or hours, but any sustained time like 1d-3d opens up the door to 98k imo and obviously for alts it can get real ugly.

Currently I think this range is one you trade with reduced size and just wait for the markets decision. Especially bc the market is trading on thinner books atm for alts. Crypto overall has been far weaker overall than any other market. Stocks in many cases have been doing anything from 10x to even 150x and just drift higher. Same with commodities doing multiples while alts have been stuck in the mud for years as a whole. Waiting for an outcome is a small price to pay in the current market. I don't know if that magically changes or not. We just have to trade what is given and remain as neutral as possible in our thinking and open to everything so we can trade it both ways.

for now, these are the inflection points that determine risk moving forward.

[Nachi @alphawifhat]

It's Black Friday bros. I think the market will likely go much lower.

Stay safe. Don't catch the knife. Lighten up your positions to touch some grass in October. Then come back later to buy the dips lower.

We live to fight another day🫡

[TraderSZ @trader1sz]

Once we above 126610, then it’s full send to 135415 and 144221

$BTC

[Merlin @MerlinSparrow]

GM. Good day to add $ENA

[Ethena @ethena]

>what if it doesn't work?

>ok but what if it prints the tether usdt infinite up only fractal?

$14b

[Cred @CryptoCred]

I spent almost all of my 20s trading crypto.

Over 8 years.

Did I sacrifice my health? Yes.

Did I sacrifice relationships? Yes.

But was it all worth it in the end as I was able to be early and use my multi-cycle experience to be financially free for life?

No, I sold the bottom.

[Merlin @MerlinSparrow]

@docXBT @deltaxbt Prob only @Orderandflow the only one traded TRX. Saw it in one of his streams at 0.26

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

everything you need to know about the crypto market in 4 minutes

hope you enjoy🖤

[TraderSZ @trader1sz]

I taught your paid group leader

[Cold Blooded Shiller @ColdBloodShill]

That little support break fakeout for FARTCOIN.

It may truly be over for bears.

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

So I've lost the habit of posting here, as I've been traveling for an extended period of time and busy with personal matters. Plan to resume posting regularly soon. In the meantime let me share some quick market views given the dramatic moves we've just experienced.

I see the current move as a smaller scale replay of last year's August crash (which bottomed on Monday).

2024's August crash was driven by the BoJ hiking first (initial trigger for the infamous carry trade unwind), followed by a hawkish FOMC, and then by a dismal payrolls number, unleashing panicky recession calls and everyone suddenly learning about the Sahm rule.

This one is similar. Déjà Vu. No carry trade this time. But we had a slightly hawkish FOMC (nothing crazy, as reflected by the small moves in short rates and FX). Combined with heavy noise from earnings (solid earnings for MSFT and META, OK earnings for AAPL, and very poorly received earnings for AMZN). Slightly hot PCE inflation. And very aggressive equities profit taking on Thursday, turning the chart into a bull trap. And today, horrid payrolls report.

Trump going ballistic and firing the head of the BLS because he didn't like the data, Argentina style, was somewhat crazy, but noise when it comes to markets. Similarly, Trump continued negative comments on Powell are likely noise at this point, at least for now. What did cause additional dumping was first the US deploying two nuclear submarines to Russia, and then Trump saying the US is prepared for nuclear war with Russia, helping levered panicans get liquidated, thus putting a local bottom on BTC after the close.

What about crypto drivers. It's been a very eventful week for crypto. We had dreadful COIN earnings. Concerns about Strategy turning its ATM off (protecting its NAV yet limiting its ability to buy BTC). Concerns about the sustainability of the ETH "DATs" (Digital Asset Treasury Companies). And the SEC launching "Project Crypto", to modernize securities rules and bringing markets on-chain (an extremely bullish development that should drive inflows later in the year). That said, even though the aforementioned concerns emboldened bears, this week's move has been mainly a macro story, given how crypto traded mostly in line with equity indices.

More importantly, what about prices. I think crypto either bottomed after today's close, given the sheer violence of that final dump, or will be bottoming together with equities on Monday. Why? Because I see this as a replay of last year's August crash. A violent shakeout. I'll be looking to add to longs on Monday, ideally before the US cash open (assuming a panicky overnight session), if everything goes according to plan.

Then up ahead we have 6.5 weeks until the next FOMC, Jackson Hole end of August, and a lot of data to help the Fed decide if to finally cut. I think they cut in September.

Fed Governor Kugler quitting the Fed (today) will prove to be an important event, as it gives Trump the opening to appoint someone of his own ahead of time, who would likely lean dovish and put pressure on Powell together with FOMC dissenters Waller and Bowman. This someone could be Trump's choice of future Fed Chair (replacing Powell next May unless something cracks), thus establishing a shadow chair at the Fed, possibly with the ability to steer other FOMC members the Trump way (to cut rates).

I remain bullish on crypto into Q4 based on a) expectations of a solid US economy, b) the Fed beginning to cut, and c) continued increase in crypto adoption (both institutional and retail) as the regulatory environment continues to improve.

That said, I think DATs will lose momentum dramatically in Q4, which combined with inflation temporarily creeping back up via goods, as US corporates increasingly pass tariffs on to consumers, could complicate market conditions. But we can worry about that later.

My 1-year target (mid 2026) for BTC is in the $200k to $250k range. Extreme, but possible. Particularly so given how the Fed would pivot dovish in May 2026 (possibly sooner), increasing the probability of the US economy running hot on both sides, fiscal and monetary.

My bigger picture bear case scenario revolves around the possibility of Trump doing poorly in the Midterms. A topic for another time.

Now let's see how this ages.

[Dr. Pump @Saint_Pump]

You'd think the market would have learned from these stats.

But no, here come the KOLs shilling the Kanye trash token.

FYI, all of them are paid shills and will dump on you. I received an offer and declined.

Don't become exit liquidity.

[Merlin @MerlinSparrow]

@TraderMotif @tradermatt Poor way of managing risk, when it is free (zero) risk. How to reconcile this?

[Merlin @MerlinSparrow]

$grph

[Knife @KnifeOnchain]

A green candle like this on a red day like this shouldnt be ignored.

Imagine what will happend when the market turns green again...

$GRPH

[Theo @0xdetweiler]

I have mentioned @soulgra_ph a few times already. I have mentioned that I have high conviction in $GRPH but I haven't explained why.

Hopefully, the following helps give you some context as to why I am so bullish on @soulgra_ph: 👇

[Donnie @DonnieBigBags]

We've got some awesome new changes coming into @DremicaOfficial for our play test on Sunday (4pm UTC).

Proud of our team and community as build a web3 MMORPG is no easy task. But this game is really coming together 🔥

If you want to try it, send a message to @tiggerscrypto

[Merlin @MerlinSparrow]

@Stoiiic 👍👍👍

[Tyler @TylerDurden]

“Terra is basically risk free” ~ Raoul Pal.