SussexAndMertonStephen

Stephen Colebourne in Sussex and Merton. Maps, transport, politics. Lib Dem, but tweeting entirely personally. I do not represent my employer.

[Mike Martin MP 🔸 @ThreshedThought]

Article 5 is dead; long live article 5

A 🧵

[Barry Quirk @BarryQuirk1]

Big numbers describe and provide insight. In 1950, for every person in the UK there were 35 in the rest of the world. By 2050, for every person in the UK there will be 125 in the rest of the world.

Waning ratios and waning influence?

[Alison Bennett @AlisonEBennett]

Come and work with me

I am setting up a team of dynamic, caring people to help me look after residents in Mid Sussex

I want to hire three people:

1/4

[Liberal Democrats @LibDems]

Our liberal team is growing.

Join the fight for a Fair Deal. 🔶
https://t.co/uhtmkgT1D2

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

@BestForBritain Harsh reality is you chose Labour in many seats where Lib Dems were actually the challengers, & allowing the Tories to squeak in as a result. Survation were *way* off. Please use multiple pollsters if you're going to do this again, as you were not "best for britain" this time.

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

This is fascinating, and partly why MRPs were wrong in so many cases.

[Callum Hunter-Dawson @Callum_L_Hunter]

📉Labour's election shows that this election wasn't UNS📈

Research for @JLPartnersPolls shows Labour change in vote share wasn't UNS this election, and it wasn't proportional.

It was quadratic!

Labour only really gained in seats where their vote share was less than 50% in 2019, losing ground in places they won by huge majorities.

The simple quadratic model explains over 50% of the data, hinting that the dynamics of swing were intricate in this election.

I'll be looking at other parties, and the pollster's predictions, over the beginning of next week.

For anyone that is interested, the underlying model is:
change = 0.0219 + 0.481 * vote - 1.136 * vote^2.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🆕 Barely more than a third of people who voted Reform yesterday said they might have voted Conservative. Our new poll conducted since 10pm yesterday finds the assumption simply adding up Tory & Reform UK votes would make a single combined block is likely to be wrong.

[Alison Bennett @AlisonEBennett]

At the end of what has been one of the most extraordinary days of my life, I want to say thank you to the people of #MidSussex who chose me to represent them in parliament. Regardless of who you voted for, I will do my utmost to serve you. Thank you.

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

So @Survation predictions come in at 13th position out of 14. They really were awful forecasts. The real question is whether they were *deliberately* misleading. At minimum, they allowed Labour put out bar charts with no connection to reality in key @LibDems target seats.

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Seat Forecaster Awards:

🥇 @britainelects
🥈 @YouGov
🥉 @Moreincommon_

(Special 4th place mention to myself).

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Seat Forecaster Awards:

🥇 @britainelects
🥈 @YouGov
🥉 @Moreincommon_

(Special 4th place mention to myself).

[Liberal Democrats @LibDems]

🔶 Liberal Democrats GAIN Wimbledon

Congratulations Paul Kohler MP

[Liberal Democrats @LibDems]

🔶 Liberal Democrats GAIN Horsham

Congratulations John Milne MP

[Liberal Democrats @LibDems]

🔶Liberal Democrats GAIN Lewes

Congratulations James MacCleary MP

[Liberal Democrats @LibDems]

🔶 Liberal Democrats GAIN Mid Sussex

Congratulations Alison Bennett MP

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

Brilliant news to wake up to a @LibDems win for @AlisonEBennett in Mid Sussex!

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

Superb chart here from @vin_viz that illustrates one of the key shifts that has brought us this election result:

Reform is now the party for people who voted Leave.

The Conservatives are the party for ... ?

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

@MoragMitchell3 Enjoy your vote, but for info here is the analysis I did as to why Lib Dems are the challengers in Mid Sussex: https://t.co/GMcn95ouu0

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

Who is the tactical voting choice in Mid Sussex?
Why is it a bit confusing?
Would you like some links to read?
TLDR: It's the @AlisonEBennett and the @LibDems

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

@mathganguk @chivanne60 Thanks for really researching your vote, here is the analysis I did: https://t.co/GMcn95ouu0

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

Who is the tactical voting choice in Mid Sussex?
Why is it a bit confusing?
Would you like some links to read?
TLDR: It's the @AlisonEBennett and the @LibDems

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

Once you look at the *evidence*, the #TacticalVote choice for Mid Sussex is clearly @AlisonEBennett @LibDems - https://t.co/jCn0uCSKAx

[SussexAndMertonStephen @MertonStephen]

Who is the tactical voting choice in Mid Sussex?
Why is it a bit confusing?
Would you like some links to read?
TLDR: It's the @AlisonEBennett and the @LibDems

[Carol Vorderman @carolvorders]

JUST OUT
"Tactical voting could wipe the Tories out for a generation. Here’s how I think it should be done” @guardian

https://t.co/3Rt9iA6euK
Now over FOUR MILLION views
Link⏬️
#ToriesOut #ToryWipeout2024
https://t.co/XJwkhV0FLh