Sulidae Capital

global equities & small businesses

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@BubleQe just to add, Tourmaline says in its own materials that it has 75 years of inventory and "no need to pursue large resource reloads in the A&D market." Also international is 21% of production for https://t.co/9JPJxt9UzY but roughly 40–45% of revenue. it can't be sold cheap

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@TheValueist Mission-critical gov systems + security clear = Reduced AI disruption

AI may expand margins

Gov budget cuts may increase reliance on temp consultants

~9.4% FCF yield + retiring shares at 2x the normal pace. Organic growth is noisy, but the FCF/share math is compounding

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@QCompounding Spitznagel doesn't make the list?

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@JJNews002 @LowAlphaHighVol To what gain? They can inconspicuously dump on the market and cause the US some pain? Not sure if that is the most cost effective plan.

[Trevor Scott @TidefallCapital]

Respect to @profgalloway for truly appreciating the historical friendship between Canada 🇨🇦 and the US 🇺🇸. Very powerful.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@TilmannScholz I agree although I am also biased as a $KSPI shareholder

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@SilbergleitJr ARPU for the big three is around ~$56
ARPU for Quebecor $QBR.B is around ~$35

Quebecor is offering the same (or more) services on the Rogers network.

Something has to give.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@jaysyoon Good comment. BB programme started Sept 12 and ends May 14, 25. Currently avg. £300k per/day in BBs which would be around ~£40m vs. ~£130m target.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@sjoerds78 @stockspinoffss @Private35271288 Today's volume was something like 1000 shares.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@stockspinoffss @sjoerds78 @Private35271288 Interesting seeing initial trading of SNREV at $45-46 which implies a 8.27% dividend yield. Assuming a proportional sell off in LBTYK that would equate to a share price of $11.82 or a 43% reduction from today's closing. SNREV will trade as SNRE after the 15th.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@AndrewMach_SA @simoneportaro I think your math is wrong not accounting for the 5:1 split for Class A + C Liberty shares into Sunrise Class A. I attached my model.
Sunrise shares starting trading today as SNREV and are currently around ~$45 implying a 8.3% yield and stub value of ~$12 for Liberty (-43%)

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@sjoerds78 @stockspinoffss With the Sunrise shares being traded on the Swiss exchange (and OTC) the primary buyers will likely be Swiss. They are unlikely to assign a 35% dis. to the equity value based on div. yield. My model was not a dcf of future div. earnings but a range of values for the split equity

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@Mill_Moron I have some sympathy as this was the same reaction by most of the west. The easiest lever to pull is immigration induced demand.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@Barchart Is the western world only delaying a similar situation? Baby boomers own the most real estate and are entering their twilight years. Collapsing birthrates and competition for high/moderate wealth immigrants may lead to housing glut and fundamentally change our pop. growth econ.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@michaeltastad @TdLeaker The same situation exists in Australia and the UK. Maybe the rest of Europe? It's a mess though because popping it basically means moving away from a population growth economy. Which is crazy to think about because all of these birthrates are well below replacement.

[Sulidae Capital @MichaelBirdBC]

@VanIsleInvestor vs shares out. @ 155.3m or -0.3% of total.

~$300m FCF at 50% returned through: ~$65m div + ~$100m shares = 7.7% yield on current MKT cap

This is cheap but their assets are weak (lots of CAPEX for little/no increase in production)

[Hindenburg Research @HindenburgRes]

We are short shares of $RBLX.

Please see our report for our full disclaimer.

https://t.co/62fZ2VG67I

(57/n)

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where listed comps are being sold off. A quarter of Dax comps trading below their book value, meaning there is something for free, incl banks, cars & utilities. This is driven by the country's overwhelmingly negative market sentiment. The first bargain hunters are already on their way. Unicredit wants to take over Commerzbank.