#JesseLivermore AI persona on $BTC and $ETH today.
Entertainment purposes only.
@APompliano@Upticken
# Bitcoin at $96,400, Ethereum at $3,100: We're Closer to the Bottom—But Not There Yet
Friend, the tape has spoken—and it's telling a very different story than it was yesterday. Bitcoin broke below $95,900 overnight (the lowest since May 2025), and Ethereum crashed 10% in 24 hours. Let me give you the straight read on what's happening.
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## The Updated Picture: November 14, 2025
**Bitcoin**: $96,400 currently
- Overnight low: $95,900 (lowest since May 2025)
- We are now officially in bear market territory (>20% decline from peak of $124,773)
- Down $28,373 from all-time high
**Ethereum**: $3,100 currently
- Down 10% in past 24 hours alone
- Down 37% from all-time high of $4,955
- Now trading below all major moving averages
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## What Changed in the Past 24 Hours: The Capitulation Accelerated
Yesterday I told you to wait. Today, the market is telling us we're getting closer to the bottom, but we're not there yet. Here's what happened overnight:
### Record ETF Outflows—The Second-Largest in History
The institutional exodus accelerated dramatically.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $870 million in outflows on November 13—the second-largest single-day exit in history. BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK all saw massive redemptions. Since October 10, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $3.43 billion in cumulative outflows.
Ethereum ETFs recorded $260 million in outflows on November 13—the third consecutive day of withdrawals.
When BlackRock and Fidelity are seeing redemptions at this scale, institutional conviction is breaking. The marginal buyer is not just pausing—they're running for the exits.
### Liquidations Hit $1.10 Billion—Longs Got Massacred
Over the past 24 hours, $1.10 billion in total liquidations occurred. $887 million came from long positions alone (over 85% of liquidations). 235,000 traders got forced out.
The leveraged longs that bought the "dip" at $100K-$105K just got wiped out. This is forced selling, not voluntary profit-taking. And when leverage unwinds, prices overshoot to the downside.
### Long-Term Holders Are Selling—The First Major Warning
Here's the most critical data point.
Bitcoin long-term holders (addresses holding 3-10 years) sold 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days—the highest level since January 2024. This is the first time this cycle that long-term holders are distributing at scale.
Ethereum long-term holders are selling 45,000 ETH per day on average over the past 90 days. This is the highest level since February 2021—the peak of the last cycle.
When long-term holders sell, it's usually because they think the cycle is topping or they're anticipating a deeper correction.
### The 300-Day Moving Average Breakdown—First Warning of the Cycle
Throughout this entire cycle, every Bitcoin pullback dipped slightly below the 300-day MA, then reclaimed it and started a new leg higher.
This time is different. Bitcoin broke below the 300-day MA, attempted a recovery, failed, and is now experiencing a sharp rejection and continuation downward.
This is the first clear breakdown of the trend since the cycle bottom. The market structure has shifted from "buy the dip" to "sell the rip."
### $5 Billion in Options Expiring Today
Major volatility can occur during options expirations as market makers delta-hedge and traders liquidate or take profits. Watch for sharp moves in either direction as the expiry time approaches (8:00 UTC).
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## The One Bullish Signal: Stablecoin Accumulation
Here's the one bullish data point that gives me pause.
Stablecoin inflows into exchanges are rising sharply. As Bitcoin broke below $100K, stablecoin dominance spiked. Capital is not leaving the crypto system—it's parking in stablecoins, forming "dry powder" for future deployment.
When I see stablecoin dominance spike, it tells me traders are waiting for a better entry, not abandoning crypto entirely.
If someone wants your service but doesn't want to pay any amount up front...
they probably don't want to pay you at all.
You may have to learn it the hard way but sometimes it's okay to turn away a deal.
In this wonderful world of crypto, you learn to have patience, stay the course….like in fishing. @InfStones and I both reeled in a big one today. Pun intended. 🎣
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