Prof. Michael Tanchum

Strategic Foresight #EMEA #Asia
Geopolitics | Geoeconomics | Security
Food-Water-Energy | Materials-Value Chains

@MiddleEastInst @AIES_austria| PhD @Harvard

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

🇹🇷 ICYMI My article on Turkey's Strategic Re-Orientation was selected as @InsightTurkey's top article for 2020. 👇

Thank you to the guest editor @muratyesiltas and chief editor @MuhittinAtaman | A pleasure also to appear great analysts @orko_8 and @EdamDefense among others.

[Insight Turkey @InsightTurkey]

1. Michaël Tanchum @michaeltanchum "The Logic Beyond Lausanne: A Geopolitical Perspective on the Congruence between Turkey’s New Hard Power and its Strategic Reorientation."
Read here:
https://t.co/RiGzSaIuHY

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

I figured this would eventually happen, but not as quickly as it seems to be happening and, for this, Paul Krugman should get credit. For years mainstream economists were unable to understand how trade and globalization work because they were locked into trade models that implicitly assumed that trade was balanced (except, occasionally, over short time periods) and that capital flowed towards its most productive use. That is why their understanding of trade had no relevance to the actual world of trade that emerged in the 1970s and 1980s.

But this couldn't last. As the problem of unbalanced trade became more obvious , and as policymakers were increasingly forced to ignore the advice of their economists and respond to real problems, mainstream economists would eventually begin to recognize how, in an unevenly globalized world, countries that aggressively intervene in their domestic economies and externalize the costs through trade surpluses are also effectively intervening in the domestic economies of countries that supposedly remain committed to "free trade".

Most economists still don't understand trade. But with Krugman now acknowledging that tariffs and other forms of trade intervention can be expansionary under some conditions and contractionary under others (as Ragnar Nurkse explained as long ago as in his 1944 book), I suspect that younger economists will develop a completely different understanding of trade, and one that is perhaps a little more realistic.

[Ulrich Speck @ulrichspeck]

In other words, Beijing's intimidation campaign works.

[Sohbet Karbuz @sohbetkarbuz]

Slowly but surely Greece is walking the walk without excessive PR, while others talk the talk

from Aktor strategic update 👇

[Zineb Riboua @zriboua]

Morocco’s Berber Revival is here:

"Morocco is advancing its efforts to implement the official status of the Amazigh language, with several partnership agreements, expanded public services, and growing integration across state institutions, according to the Minister of Digital Transition and Administrative Reform, Amal El Fallah Seghrouchni."

https://t.co/ashSKe657z

[Hanin Ghaddar @haningdr]

🛑 Absolutely a breakthrough:
➡️ This is the first agreement between Israel and Lebanon since 1983.
➡️ A clear and loud “NO” to Iran as it challenges its efforts to control Lebanon ‘s file.
➡️ But as the 1983 agreement was toppled by the bad guys then (Assad regime), Iran will try everything to make sure this one fails as well.
➡️ Lebanon and Israel have a responsibility in making sure this agreement is protected and its implementation is successful.
➡️ We will probably not have another chance.

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

@ulrichspeck @HudsonInstitute @peterrough Congratulations!

[Tomáš Zdechovský @TomasZdechovsky]

🇪🇺🇰🇿 Yesterday at the European Parliament, we opened an important discussion on “A New Kazakhstan: Results of the Constitutional Referendum and the Path of Democratic Modernization.”

Kazakhstan has become one of the European Union’s key partners in Central Asia - economically, strategically, and increasingly also politically. With EU–Kazakhstan trade reaching around €45 billion in 2024 and European investment exceeding €54 billion, our cooperation is already strong and continues to grow. 📈

But a truly meaningful partnership is not built on economic interests alone.

As Kazakhstan moves forward with constitutional reforms and a broader process of political modernization, it is essential to keep an open and constructive dialogue on democratic governance, the rule of law, transparency, and civic participation. 🗣️⚖️

Today’s exchange highlighted both the progress already made and the challenges that remain ahead. It also underlined one important message: the next chapter of EU–Kazakhstan relations should stand on two pillars -strong economic cooperation and strong cooperation on shared values. 🤝

My sincere thanks to all distinguished speakers, experts, and participants for their valuable insights, including my colleague, MEP @andreykovatchev , H.E. Ambassador @romanvassilenko , Mr. Oliver Arifon, Mr. @MauriGeri and @ajturkstra.

The European Union remains committed to deepening its partnership with Kazakhstan and supporting an open dialogue on stability, prosperity, and democratic modernization. 🌍

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

Moldova’s (re-) unification with Romania advances?

- Add strategic territory to NATO automatically

- Boost Romania’s population and economic power vis-a-vis other Eastern European countries and EU MS as a whole

- But also provocative to Russia. 🇷🇺 Could Putin also be pushing this to create a casus belli to take action in Moldova?

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

BREAKING:

The Lower House of the Romanian Parliament has passed bill starting the process of creating a unified state with Moldova.

The bill has now been sent to the Senate

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

Italy's Meloni warns about the weaponization of trade routes

[سيف الدرعي| Saif alderei @saif_aldareei]

Meloni just predicted the collapse of global trade. 💀🌐
If Iran starts charging toll fees at the Strait of Hormuz, every choke point on Earth will copy them. Indonesia wants the Malacca Strait, Houthis rule Bab al-Mandab, and Panama is a US-China mess.
They are all watching Hormuz right now, taking notes on how much extortion they can get away with.
Are we seriously looking at the end of free ocean trade?

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

🇶🇦⛽️ Qatar now eyes normal LNG output to return within weeks.

“Our teams have been mobilized already for a few weeks," Qatar's PM told the FT

Quite a different picture from the doom-and-gloom on over the past months

[Bloomberg @business]

Qatar plans to return to normal LNG output within weeks from the undamaged parts of its facility, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani says in an interview with the Financial Times https://t.co/A4akgXe4jk

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

@Imtiyaz66031523 As someone who has worked on the East med for a long time, I would love to see peace and mutual respect in the region. The latter helps with the former but is a commodity in short supply.

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

Greece would need joint production on Greek soil to address this gap

[The Thinker @ottomanenglish]

Greek defense analyst Ioannis Theodoratos:

"The problem isn't the Turkish weapons themselves, but the Turks' ability to continuously produce them, unlike us who have to beg other countries for them... What will we do when we run out of ammunition in the war? The Turks won't have that problem.''

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

🇦🇿🇦🇲 Armenia-Azerbaijan telecoms agreement is a good sign for advancing connectivity in many different sectors

[JAMnews @JAMnewsCaucasus]

‼️Armenia and Azerbaijan telecom firms agree internet transit link via Armenian territory

A major Armenian telecommunications company has signed an agreement with an Azerbaijani operator that would allow internet traffic between mainland Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan to pass through Armenian territory, in another sign of growing practical cooperation between the two neighbours.

The deal, announced on 22 June, was signed between Telecom Armenia and AzerTelecom. However, the project cannot proceed until it receives approval from Armenia's National Security Service, according to Telecom Armenia deputy chief executive Aram Barseghyan.

Speaking to RFE/RL's Armenian Service, Mr Barseghyan said the arrangement would give AzerTelecom access to a fibre-optic transit channel with a capacity of 100 gigabits per second. He stressed that Azerbaijan would not be connected to Armenia's domestic internet network and would not gain access to data transmitted through the system.

Instead, the Armenian company would provide transit infrastructure linking Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, the Azerbaijani exclave separated from the rest of the country by Armenian territory.

Financial terms of the agreement have not been disclosed, with both companies describing them as commercially confidential.

Mr Barseghyan said the project reflects the broader logic of regional connectivity initiatives promoted by Armenia, Azerbaijan and the United States, although it is not formally part of any specific programme.

The agreement comes as Yerevan and Baku continue to expand economic and transport links following a series of agreements reached since their US-backed peace deal in August 2025.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly argued that regional stability depends on opening transport, energy and communications routes across the South Caucasus. His government has promoted plans for new transit infrastructure, including telecommunications links, pipelines and transport corridors connecting countries across the region.

[Zineb Riboua @zriboua]

This is a must read from @Doranimated

If President Donald Trump’s deal with Iran is making you anxious, I’d love to sell you on an investment opportunity in Gaza—a beachfront resort.

Despite the concessions made to Iran, Trump shattered the regime’s military infrastructure, halted its uranium enrichment, and degraded Hezbollah. Now there is time to prepare for a bigger victory.

https://t.co/fYrHpcp4wK

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

🇱🇾It's always been about how whose going to get which pieces of a $52 billion Libyan pie

🇪🇸🇹🇷🥧Spain-Turkey share a piece of the Libyan pie that could see more joint Spanish-Turkish cooperation in energy and other sectors in Libya

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Türkiye Petrolleri is joining Repsol and MOL in a new offshore exploration deal with Libya’s National Oil Corporation.

TURKEY CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND ITS ENERGY FOOTPRINT ACROSS THE MEDITERRANEAN.

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

🇬🇷🇮🇳As predicted, India-Greece defense industry cooperation moves ahead

[Greek Report 🇬🇷 @GreekReporterr]

Strategic Boost for Hellenic Defence: Miltech Hellas Signs MoU with India's MKU Limited

Miltech Hellas S.A., a leading Greek defence electronics firm, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Indian company MKU Limited to explore long-term cooperation in defence and security technologies.

The partnership will focus on advanced electronics, avionics, communications systems, soldier protection solutions, electro-optics and integrated defence systems.

This collaboration is expected to strengthen the capabilities of the Hellenic Armed Forces through technology transfer, joint development and enhanced interoperability.

In an increasingly challenging security environment in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, the agreement reinforces Hellas' defence industrial base and strategic autonomy.

[Ulrich Speck @ulrichspeck]

Why is Pistorius so popular in Germany? Because he articulates the need for support for Ukraine and for German rearmament in clear, no nonsense terms. That's what Germans appreciate in times of an increased Russian threat.

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

The new ‘normal’ for Gulf energy is tankers and pipelines. Expect the new normal to evolve even further

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

If you are counting Strait of Hormuz barrels, don’t forget to add the bypass pipelines if you want an apples-to-apples comparison to pre-war levels.

What matters is not SoH flows, but Persian Gulf flows. As long as the bypass pipelines continue to be used (and they are), SoH volumes don’t need to return to pre-war levels for overall PG flows to be back to pre-war levels.

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

It used to be other way around re: UK and Italian PMs

[Alexander Clarkson  @APHClarkson]

In a few weeks time, Giorgia Meloni will meet her fifth British Prime Minister

[Prof. Michael Tanchum @michaeltanchum]

Keir Starmer is out. No Starm, no foul? I doubt it.

[Reuters @Reuters]

BREAKING: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced he will resign https://t.co/93wCzlmvTU