MickyLuv

@cryptosensei_co

[a13v @newzage]

Crypto Quick Update

- Bear regime confidence increased to 21% - Bear lite 😉
- USDT.D / USDC.D now at 7.5% and rising - money flowing back into stables
- Smart money short bias at 78%
- Crypto Risk Index - still very high - 83/100

This pullback should take a couple of weeks to fully play out. We expect a light bounce from AVWAP / institutional support levels. Our key zones should hold:

- BTC: 68K–74K (YTD AVWAP), possible wick to 65K
- ETH: 2K–2.1K (YTD AVWAP), possible wick to 1.8K

Will update if we see risk of a deeper move.

P.S. If you trade with indicators, use lower timeframes during this consolidation - there’s always an opportunity in the chaos.

[a13v @newzage]

$BTC as we said stay out of crypto.
We have a sell on 2d level.

Targets stat 74-68. Potential wick to 62.

Crypto influencers do not track global macro or risk.

[a13v @newzage]

Beware of fundamental analysts who don’t understand capital cycles.

https://t.co/IIoZNOe7gU

They spot a real theme with deep domain knowledge, ride it 300-600%, then often build a cult around it.
Retail FOMOs in at the top and gets wrecked.

We’ve seen this exact pattern play out in Uranium, Palladium, and now Photonics.

Recent example: @ParadisLabs on $IQE - down ~40% since the April 26th call at $56.

Strong fundamentals. Weak on timing and rotation.
Stay humble, respect the cycles, and take profits when the move is in.

Better entries will come - we’ll be buying Photonics at the bottom of this pullback.

Let me know if you want coverage on more names in the space.

FYI. @ShortSeller... thought you will enjoy this.

PS. 2 charts below - sell on $NVDA, $IQE wrecked down close to 65% - it may bounce now, but likely to go lower... along with the pullback. We will cover more similar charts next week.

[a13v @newzage]

https://t.co/ZoyRJigaZL

[a13v @newzage]

$PURR we bought it at the bottom and exited at the local top around $6.50.

Now looking to rebuy on this pullback in the $5.10–$4.80 zone - right at / slightly below the YTD VWAP (purple line below) - 5.10

Shout out to @Globalflows - for a great find.
See you in the $5.10–$4.80 area for the rebuy.
Target: >$10

play a more intelligent game anon.
- tq (tiger quant)

[a13v @newzage]

Quick update for the folks:

The Kill Switch Index (Chaos Metric) - which signals upcoming 5–10% corrections/pullback - just moved from Elevated to High.

The index jumped from 75 to 87 late today
(max reading is 100).
- Reduce risky positions.
- Look into hedging.
- Timeline is within 7 to 10 days.
- Our "higher-low" May 7th timeline stands.

Stay alert.

Ps. we expect a 5-6% pull back on SPX, and up to 10% on NDX and SMH.

[SENSEI ✦ @SENSEILLC]

Your future self is loading…

Every lesson, every risk, every late night, every smart move adds another percent.

Learn. Earn. Repeat.

RT if you’re betting on yourself. 💪🏼

[MickyLuv @MickyLuv_ETH]

If you're serious about crypto trading, the Kinetic Flow dashboard from @newzage is genuinely one of the best tools I use.

Macro regime, smart money positioning, OI/funding, and capital rotation — all in one place. I use it every session before I touch a single chart.

Still learning to read all the layers, but the 'What This Means' tab makes it accessible. Looking forward to seeing how it develops.

[a13v @newzage]

Pulse Dashboard — Latest Version Just Deployed.

We’ve rolled out a major update with:
- Advanced market breadth
- VIX integration
- Improved Kill Switch event detection

Next version will add CTA data, sector analysis (lagging vs leading, relative strength, and cycles), and clear signals for when to buy or sell specific sectors.

Link in reply.
Let us know what you think or if you have any requests for the next iteration.

[a13v @newzage]

This 2 weeks were set to reposition - and try to negotiate - while reducing pressure.

Half the people still don’t believe the ceasefire will hold - so every bit of good news that trickles in keeps pushing prices higher.

Even with oil rising, the market stayed resilient.

Interesting setup.

[a13v @newzage]

GM, Top of Mind: Apr 8, 2026 (afternoon)

We’ll keep these updates shorter while the market has a clear near-term direction for he next 2 weeks :-)

Good news - we called the local bottom spot on (link below). The rally is underway and we’re positioned to ride it.

https://t.co/9HrrNOac2i

That said, we’re not out of the woods yet. We still expect one more retest of the lower range toward late April or May, once the current ceasefire period ends. We’ll manage risk carefully.

Key Signals Today:
- Stress Index dropped sharply from 97% to 80%
- VIX is retreating and now in contango - positive sign
- Correlation (COR1M) index fell sharp from 45 to 18
- Buy signal on the 2-day ES chart

Big question: Is this the start of the real rally, or will we get one more dip first? We’ll keep you updated.
Updated scenarios table is below.

Most Likely Path:
- Rally over the next 2 weeks (currently SPX is at 6750 and climbing)
- One more dip toward the lows still possible (~50% chance)
- Then stronger expansion higher, targeting year-end ≥7,400
- Only 10-15% chance of a blackswan below 6,150

Positioning:
- Long Silver juniors and silver more broadly
- Nat Gas update coming soon
- Agriculture, Chemicals & Fertilizers performing well
- Wheat is a longer 3-6 month play - down a bit.
- Selectively adding to strong "rally" plays

Enjoy the rally - but stay disciplined.
PS. Lots of code updates coming, sorry for delay with getting yest / today out.

analyzed with mxc market pulse - link in reply 👇

[a13v @newzage]

In the past few months, we’ve worked extensively with the @nansen_ai API - and it’s an absolute game-changer.

We’ve now fully integrated it into our system:

• Watchlist: We only add coins that show strong momentum AND are backed by real smart money flows and whale buying on-chain.

• Smart Trader Sentiment: We track the top 15 wallets on @HyperliquidX based on PNL (blending the last 45, 180, and 250 days from the top 50). This gives us a powerful sentiment gauge. We also filter out obvious bots 😎

• HODL Portfolio Tracking: We combine Nansen data with our own Base signal (volatility compression after a drop) and smart volume analysis to detect genuine accumulation by smart money.

We’re extremely happy with the results.

Huge shoutout to @ASvanevik and the Nansen team for building such a powerful tool.

You can check the live dashboard here (moving into full production very soon):

https://t.co/4IhmUxaK8W

[a13v @newzage]

Main market update just came out - we are finalizing an update on crypto after long weekend.

Generally impressed with how well it is holding.
We beleive bottom was in on early feb.

Crypto market is in a range - 60-80K BTC, and 1800-2500 ETH - question is for how long? - our original forecsat was bottom in summer 2026 (latest october)

... more on it later today.

[a13v @newzage]

Smart traders sentiment...
still bearish but early shift on $BTC longs.

all according to plan holding range - waiting for tradfi sell off to finish - we are not far.

[a13v @newzage]

https://t.co/Sdqx5EMVW6

[a13v @newzage]

GM, Top of Mind: Mar 24, 2026

Last week we laid out our expected path:
- Most likely: Range-bound stabilization between 6,400–6,850 (centered ~6,550 ±150 pts)
- Followed by expansion in the next 1-3 months, targeting year-end ≥7,400
- This remains fully in line with our Oct/Nov 2025 forecast of a 6-12% correction followed by expansion
- We still assign only ~10% chance of a major drop below 6,000

Market had a strong run yesterday as anticipated and is resting today.

Signals remain mixed but are shifting bullish. We’re waiting for clear confirmation of reversal - otherwise this stays a consolidation inside the range before the next leg higher.

- Gold: Waiting for last Oct/Nov levels on $GLD to close our short (currently +25%) and decide on buying.
- Oil & Nat Gas: Reviewing today (plan remains short Oil / long Gas)
- Crypto: We just shared a separate update - please check it out

New Market Pulse dashboard is now live — every indicator has a “what that means” explanation:
https://t.co/kMXjLSxL6f

Feel free to share ideas on what to add. Built to help anticipate and execute trades/investments. We’ll do a deeper post on it soon.

Big Picture / Speculation:
- AI compute is the new Oil - energy (gas, oil, or nuclear) remains the key resource
- US is executing the right long-game moves on both
- This war will become old news in the next 3-4 weeks
- Markets were propped up during the war and energy prices continue to be managed
- After the current range we expect expansion higher. Only ~10% chance of a deeper pullback below 6,150

[a13v @newzage]

We agree. The bottom is likely in.

The key signal was USDT.D hitting 9.1% (very close to the all-time high of 9.5% during the FTX collapse) on Feb 5-6th - and the recent regime change.

analyzed with KINETIC Flow:
https://t.co/yKxtQadHZt

We’re still in a sideways chop phase for a bit. Expect ETH to test ~$2,000 and BTC to test ~$65K before the next leg up @joemccann / @CryptoHayes

#Crypto #BTC #ETH

[a13v @newzage]

All about timing...
$BTC 80-85K incoming.

Mapped it earlier... ETH 2500 – BTC 80K (may go higher). What's nice about it – BTC is also dominating the run - see BTC.D as relative strength in orange below.

What's next? – well, bounce to 80-85k, followed by a deeper pullback (60K perhaps 55K).

Next week should be good for both BTC and TradFi...

A war victory declaration will help
– reality will set in later. ;-)

@CredibleCrypto

[a13v @newzage]

$Gold just broke 5K and heading lower,
Playing out as planned.

Signal is sell now across LTF and HTF.
@amlivemon - good original call - 4500 next.

[a13v @newzage]

100% agree with @CredibleCrypto.

You can't go wrong buying $ETH spot here. 1.6-2k is a fair market range.

Scale in and stake.

P.S. To be specific:

We'll retest the 1.6-1.8k range in March and start the bull market this summer.

We plan to pick the bottom then - as we did last time - and we're confident our algos will do it again.

Yet, if you're looking to buy, it's fair to scale in partially now.