Hyperliquid has a real shot at recreating the 2021 NFT mania
The most important elements for NFTs to thrive are:
1. Wealth effect - People buy NFTs when they've just made a ton of money onchain. 94k HL users just received an avg of $30k~ PER. PERSON.
2. Social - Humans strive for positive attention; we are social creatures at our core. This shows in many different ways: admiration (flexing luxury goods), recognition (e.g., to be seen as a "smart" user), inclusion (belonging to a group of likeminded shitposters/degens/ppl who "get it")
Now read the above with the flagship NFTs in mind. Do these people fit the criteria? Are 5,000~ power users of HL who were early to the best play of the cycle people who would very proudly wear these NFTs as PFPs? If you saw someone wearing this NFT, what is your instant opinion on that person vs a BAYC vs a Milady? Are these power users and the rest of the 89k users likely to mint out collections for 30 $hype a pop? Will these users splash around some of their $hype to buy the rarest or coolest NFTs in a collection? I'll leave you to answer all of these yourself.
It's also worth pointing out that $hype holders are actually incentivized to push all activity on HL, such as NFTs, DeFi, Memecoins, etc. Chain usage and volume positively affects the price of $hype
I think it's clear that Hyperliquid has the groundwork laid out to be the hub for the next NFT mania. It's up to how much attention and money is willing to play, as degens will follow. Whether or not NFTs catch attention on HL, I'll be buying some
since 2021 chatgpt went from 0 to 900M MAUs, there is nothing remotely comparable to that kind of activity occurring on crypto native rails
the trade was rotate btc into gold as saylor ponzi institutionalized it and gold broke out of 10 year range
and rotate eth into nvda/ai
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not sure how crypto will become fastest horse again when ai is being funded by infinite $$$ from the most profitable companies in the world that are being turbobid by every person with a job while being sponsored by governments, and in contrast crypto is comprised of the unemployed gambling against each other on coins backed by air, the ai tech cos are legit only constrained atm by lack of physical hardware & not enough energy from grids rather than dollars, and demand on retail + enterprise side has not shown any signs of slowing down as models continue improving and getting cheaper to use
i do believe crypto will revolutionize finance with perps, stablecoins, and prediction markets - we are a 0 to 1 improvement on many archaic systems on how to speculate on assets and how to transmit value globally, but it is not clear whether that will be captured by existing majors
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what could make crypto outperform again?
• hyperliquid + tradexyz going viral with builder codes through multiple frontend venues as the best place to speculate with leverage on stocks, perps are a better product than options & will be more enticing for retail as they become more popular, need breakout attention outside of just CT bubble to catalyze this happening
• crypto social app that does not market itself as a "crypto" app, with emphasis on user-focused identities provable w/ zk as a counterbalance to overwhelming amount of ai content on social media, gate app with $$$ tiers for certain unlockables, enable some sort of speculation prediction market features that allow people to bet on real life events with their friends, some sort of focus on IRL activity that differentiates itself from other socials with gamification aspect
• whoever solves stablecoins for consumer stores seems like a big winner also
• saylor somehow not face of bitcoin anymore, quantum issues solved with some dev organization, btc finds rightful place much closer to gold's market cap
i honestly have no idea
hype does seem like an easy hold
but generally it seems much lower risk with more upside to simply sit in AMZN/GOOG/AAPL & gamble on lowcap ai shitcos
feels like we need to go way lower to washout people who still are overconfident that we will just come back for no apparent reason
"loot syndrome"
loot was a free nft mint that went to 20e + a 70k token airdrop in a week. this was my experience:
on august 28th, 2021, dom hofmann (known for founding vine) tweeted about a new project - loot. most nft veterans missed the mint because the name dom was associated with a notorious egg grifter in the punks discord.
one of my discords pinged and we started minting. writing random ids into the etherscan contract and getting black squares with text on them. i minted ~10 before it got tedious and collisions started happening. a friend hit the contract to get all the unminted ids, and we minted ~200. then everyone was satisfied. i asked if i could pass the unminted txt file to another discord that was struggling with collisions - this was okayed, and the other group minted another 200-300
this was a saturday night, and it stayed low over the weekend, aside from a couple of friends who were spazzing out buying a ton around ~.2-.4e.
then all of a sudden 2e, 6e, 8e floor in a day. people were freaking out. many had no exposure. my two discords were making spreadsheets of how much loot ppl had - 7/8figs of loot individually.
the premise of these black squares was a sense of abstract “ownership” over an item set that could be integrated into anything. in 2021 people had a lot bigger imaginations than they do now. i vividly remember as people dreamed of what games could be made, someone v sharp saying “we’re playing the game right now”
there were other games to play too - if you caught someone who didn’t realize “divine robe” was a grail line of text on opensea new listings you could make a 4e->40e flip in 5 minutes, and this happened regularly.
the kicker was agld, an airdrop of 10,000 tokens to each loot nft. this happened around 2am est, and i remember a 1eth v3 uniswap pool that immediately got sold thru (by one of my discord friends). it was broken at ~.00001e to the downside and people were bummed they missed the free eth. i thought it was actually worth a punt and bought 400k agld from the discords otc at the .00001e broken price - it cost about 5eth. i went to bed, and woke up to agld listed on coinbase.
although i sold early, agld eventually ran to a $7 peak and loot peaked at 20e, making it one of the big nft stimulus events of 2021
ive since recognized loot syndrome in other cases, the concept where playing make believe with your investments is fun and almost always over speculative. degen on base/farcaster was a more recent example - vcs on farcaster who got to play make believe with a memecoin. one big downside is the people most incentivized, who hold the asset, are lazy investors and probably not builders. builders want to create their own equity as they build, so there is a fundamental mismatch.
finally, i leave you with this parting gift - a chart overlay of sol & loot during that week. i find it very funny that the story above was created because kyle salami made a billion dollars on sol going from 80->120 the previous day and euphoria blasted 10m into the latest nft fad
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