Mik Mullins

Markets and Digital Economy Companies (mostly)

[Mik Mullins @MikMullins]

"Finally The Small Investor Can Beat The Big Guys $NSDQ100 $SPX500 The small investor used to have ..." via @eToro https://t.co/MUHmpWBnPX

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

I agree, @tylercowen's talk is beautiful, hopeful, evidence-based, forward looking. A fantastic antidote to the silly hype coming from the labs, very much in the line of our Messy Jobs (which Tyler gracefully blurbs!)- which will come out in Kindle and physical form on the 21st of June.

[Stephen King @StephenKing]

TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out.

[Mik Mullins @MikMullins]

@AndreaVerolino @EOS_SG @ntu_ase @IPGP_officiel How bad would an event have to be at Barren Island, KW-23612 or other seamounts in the vicinity to be a threat to Singapore. Tsunamis are famously weak at getting through Straits and around corners? This study estimates a maximum of 15cm from an 8.4 reaching Singapore.

[Tomas Pueyo @tomaspueyo]

50% of humans live in this circle
But why?
It's not a coincidence

It's because of a single, massive accident
Why?
Let's zoom in:

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

In first 5 months of year, >100% of S&P 500’s gains were driven by 10 largest constituents (meaning remainder detracted value); rally has broadened significantly in past 1.5 months;  although 7 of 10 top contributors between January and May also feature among top contributors since June 1, top 10’s total contribution to return has fallen to just over a third between June 1st and yesterday’s close
@SPDJIndices

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

How many stocks are ideal in a portfolio?

Research shows that 15-20 stocks are the "sweet spot"

Adding more stocks reduces performance (tough to find dozens of great businesses) but it doesn't reduce portfolio standard deviation....

[Puru Saxena @saxena_puru]

This is the most important table in investing -

Long-term compounding and time are the keys, short-term volatility is noise.

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

15 visuals every investor should memorize:

1: In the long run, stocks win:

[World of Statistics @stats_feed]

Things that smartphones replaced:

TV’s
yellow pages
camera
map
GPS device
calculator
alarm clock
radio
camcorder
pay phone
answering machine
newspaper
calendar
VCR
flashlight
watch
timer
compass
mail
cookbooks
airline tickets
photo albums
magazines
money
voice recorder
scanners
walkie talkie
TV remote
translator
playing cards
diaries
travel guidebooks
foreign phrasebooks
portable speakers
takeout orders by phone
CDs
DVDs
encyclopedias
photocopiers
compact mirrors
checks
rulers
levels
address book
rolodex
dictionary

[Eugene Ng @EugeneNg]

Sea Limited’s $SE Shopee is the top e-commerce in Southeast Asia (SEA) with US$47.9bn of total US$99.5bn e-commerce GMV (from top 9 platforms) with ~48% market share, and is No. 1 across all SEA countries.

Alibaba’s $BABA Lazada is 2nd at US$20.1bn with ~20% market share.

- Momentum Works

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

How many times does a report have to come in better than expected before you adjust your models?

[App Economy Insights @EconomyApp]

What are your favorite software businesses heading into earnings season?

The Rule-of-40 chart below shows:

X: Revenue Growth Y/Y
Y: Operating Margin TTM (includes SBC)

🟢 Growth+Profit > 40% $CRWD $DDOG $SNOW
🟡 20% - 40% $CRM $MDB $NET $TWLO $ZS
🔴 <20% $OKTA $PATH $U

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Wondering which month is the best time to start investing? The right answer is any month. Just start!

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

7 Lessons from 7 legendary investors I wish I knew 20 years ago:

1️⃣ "In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners" - J.P. Morgan

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Exactly one year ago CNBC aired its last "markets in turmoil" special report. It took a big rally (+20% off the October lows) and a little luck with today's bounce, but the only indicator with a perfect track record lives on. S&P 500 total return over the last year: +1.5%. $SPX

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

🚀 $SHOP Smashes Expectations🔥:
Q1 EPS $0.01 vs Est. ($0.04)
Revenue $1.5B vs Est. $1.43B

$SHOP has done it again, leaving Wall Street speechless 🤐 with Q1 2023 earnings per share of $0.01, crushing expectations of a loss of ($0.04)💥Their revenue of $1.5 billion also surpassed predictions of $1.43 billion. That's an 25% increase from last year📈

$SHOP GMV skyrocketed by 15% to $49.6 billion, and GPV reached an astounding $27.5 billion, accounting for 56% of GMV processed in the quarter🌟Monthly Recurring Revenue climbed by 10% to $116 million as of March 31, 2023📊

Innovation is Shopify's middle name. In Q1, $SHOP launched Commerce Components by Shopify (CCS) and a game-changing AI shopping assistant powered by OpenAI's ChatGPT API🤖Expanding their reach, $SHOP partnered with big names like Intuit, Pinterest, IBM Consulting, and Cognizant🛍️

But it's not all sunshine and rainbows 🌦️ $SHOP reported an operating loss of $193 million (13% of revenue) and an adjusted operating loss of $31 million (2% of revenue). Gross profit dollars grew 12% to $717 million, but gross margin dipped to 47.5% from 53.0% in Q1 2022📉

$SHOP making moves, announcing major changes to its logistics business 🚛They're selling most logistics assets to Flexport, a tech-driven global logistics platform. In return, $SHOP will get a 13% equity interest in Flexport, which will become their official logistics partner🌐

Looking ahead to Q2 2023, $SHOP anticipates similar revenue growth, gross margin percentage, and a mid-single-digit percentage decrease in operating expenses compared to Q1 2023 💼 They're also planning for free cash flow profitability throughout 2023 and estimate capital expenditures of around $100 million for the year💡However, a severance charge of $140 to $150 million is expected in Q2 2023 due to workforce reduction📉

How does $SHOP comp against their peers?🧐

$GLBE, $MELI, $ABNB, $ETSY, $SE, $PINS, $CPNG, $AMZN, $CHWY, $FVRR, $BIGC, $W & $JMIA

[Mik Mullins @MikMullins]

@benedictevans Hard to find pure plays, the Google Amazon Microsoft to diversified. However;

Unity Software
Crowdstrike
Lemonade
UI Path

These guys are already disrupting large legacy companies in huge markets by leveraging "AI"

If you mean generative "AI" the pure plays aren't yet obvious

[Mik Mullins @MikMullins]

ARKK tech predictions, I don't like Rockets, Batteries, Crypto or Biotech.

[Mik Mullins @MikMullins]

𝙋𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙 my report @eToro https://t.co/ixCoPzUIT0