Michael Casper

Michael Casper, CFA is the Senior US Equity Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence based in New York, NY | DM to get + to our distribution|

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Join @PythonTrader and I for our US Equity Outlook webinar on 12/11 at 11am Eastern!

I'll be addressing the AI/Tech "bubble", how a more aggressive Fed could help small caps break out, and possible implications of a possible court reversal on tariffs.

https://t.co/JrBXZ3KVbA

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Join me on Bloomberg TV at 12:40 for more color!

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

In our part 2 of the What Makes A Bubble? series we examine prior melt-ups. Returns off the 2022 bear market low are tracking below both the lead up to the Great Depression and the internet bubble. Likewise, consensus EPS forecasts are stronger.

https://t.co/ltKPM4Tpwa

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Perhaps the most compelling evidence against an AI bubble is coming from the IPO market. We've had just 93 new issues in 2025 and while they've posted strong gains, it pales in comparison with the 91% 1-month gain for 1999's 512 IPOs.

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

- Unprofitable small caps were bid to nosebleed levels back in 2000. We're at average now.
- More than 1/3 the US equity universe was comprised of zombies in '00
- Leverage ratios were 2x today's level. Now cash is king

So what gives?

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

With all the AI-bubble talk, I just keep thinking where's the froth? Market valuations are above norms for sure but Mag-7 is half the multiple of the Four Horsemen in 2000 (and its shrinking as earnings surge).

https://t.co/fzkGl0YzEd

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Join me at 10am Eastern for a collaborative webinar on the effects of tariffs and how to utilize terminal tools to isolate portfolio impacts!

Sign up here: https://t.co/rUtWd7V7zB

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

"Tech is the most foreign-exposed sector across all of these three indices — the S&P 500 and the Russell Mid and the Russell Small," Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike Casper says when discussing tariffs. "So tech is one that can be very badly hit."

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Tomorrow at 10am Eastern, I'll be hosing the BI STOX <GO> quarterly earnings season outlook webinar with @gtfiv and BI Senior Policy Analyst, Duane Wright. We'll have a special focus on Health Care policy and Industrials.

Click here to register: https://t.co/doqnkAcSnM

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

LAST CALL for the BI STOX <GO> 3Q Earnings Season Outlook Webinar. Click here to register: https://t.co/73XEkiFa94

@GinaMartinAdams

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

REMINDER: We'll be hosting our 2Q Earnings Season Outlook Webinar today. Click the link below to register!

https://t.co/6BQq6afcra

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Join the BI STOX team for our upcoming webinars!

@GinaMartinAdams, @PythonTrader and I will discuss the US Midyear Outlook on 6/27 at 10am EST.
https://t.co/F64b5ZhcnQ

@gtfiv, @anurag_rana4 and I will preview the 2Q earnings season on 7/15 at 10am EST.
https://t.co/0plrTKiqth

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Small-Cap balance sheets look healthy with debt/EBITDA falling despite a downturn in operating earnings and bankruptcy risk via HY OAS appears minimal. However, this combined with a lower % of short term debt could mean less bounceback if/when rates fall.

https://t.co/Kej0JuEN5J

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

If anyone gets bored of it being night-time during the day, I'll be on Bloomberg News at 3:10pm discussing the upcoming earnings season!

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

REMINDER: @GinaMartinAdams and I will be reviewing our new Sector Rotation Model and what it means for equity leadership in 2024 at 10AM.

Click here to register: https://t.co/LQzLyumdbW

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Since 1979, small caps have led the S&P 500 following 10 of the 11 ISM Mfg bottoms below a 47-handle, leading by an average 1,305 bps in the year after those lows.

The one time RTY didn't lead was after the 1996 bottom.

https://t.co/DmI62KmqZq

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

@GinaMartinAdams and I will host a webinar on 4/3 at 10Am EST to go over our new Sector Rotation Model.
https://t.co/e3MPXHmPm9

On 4/10 at 2PM, I'll discuss what I'm watching this earnings season with Alison Williams, Herman Chan, and Kunjan Sobhani.
https://t.co/g1rUJVYAhh

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

@GinaMartinAdams and I will host a webinar on 4/3 at 10AM EST on our new Sector Rotation Model.
https://t.co/e3MPXHmPm9

On 4/10, I'll be sharing my thoughts on what to watch in the 1Q earnings season with Alison Williams, Herman Chan and Kunjan Sobhani.
https://t.co/g1rUJVYAhh

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Join me at The MoneyShow Virtual Expo on March 21 from 2:40-3:10 PM EDT as I go over the US Equity Market Outlook!

https://t.co/iAhHWkahpm

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

Here's the link to our full report: https://t.co/iCc4IkvYPS

Likewise, see BI THEM <GO> on terminal for the data behind our work and some great thematic research!

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

The thematic gap between US small and large cap stocks explains at least some of the performance rift between the two. Across the cap spectrum, the more themes a stock has been exposed to, the higher the performance and only 20% of Russell 2000 stocks have a thematic linkage.

[Michael Casper @MikeACasper]

This gap looks likely to widen with SMCI's graduation to the Russell 1000 in June and inclusion in the S&P 500 on March 18th. AI is the best performing R2k theme and the addition of a handful of theme-linked IPOs and possible R1K demotions barely covers SMCI's exit.