Michael Sullivan

“Mostly stocks. Long-term investor (20+ yrs). Sharing frameworks, real positions & lessons. Not financial advice.”

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

A personal reflection on my investing journey, market lessons, and long-term framework for ETFs, technology stocks, and growth investing. https://t.co/o6fempjUPy

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

"Per UBS Evidence Lab, crude and product outflows exiting the Gulf of Oman collapsed to 9.1mb/d over the last few days, versus an average of 13.5mb/d last week and a steep drop from early October peaks of 17mb/d."

"Combined crude and product liftings via the Strait of Hormuz and alternate bypass routes were pegged at 9.5mb/d last week, down sharply from recent highs of 16mb/d and the September baseline of 14mb/d."

"While flows are almost certainly subject to upward revisions, they highlight an undeniable downtrend since the start of October."

Ok.... "The Great" president Trump needs to hop on Truth Social ASAP, trash UBS, and drop a "BIG, BEAUTIFUL BOMB" straight onto Zurich!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!!!

#oott #Iran

[Yellowbull @Yellowbull11]

Man I love the smell of industrial reality in the morning

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: small caps losing 1.69% and erasing Thursday’s rebound leaves broadening unconfirmed, even with equal weight holding up better.
I’d get constructive again if $IWM closes above Thursday’s $275.08 close for two straight sessions.
Buy small caps Monday, or wait for $275.08 to hold?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: Thursday’s broadening stumbled—small caps fell 1.69%, wiping out their rebound, while equal weight held up better at −0.42%.
I’d regain confidence if small caps reclaim Thursday’s close and outperform the S&P for two consecutive sessions.
Buy equal weight’s resilience, or wait for small caps to recover?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

$MU stays on my rebound watchlist. KeyBanc sees Q4 DRAM prices rising 15-20%—a bullish counterpoint to the China fears.

Hold $858-$875 and reclaim $900, then $933 is the next test. Below $858, the setup is off. The chart still needs repair.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: $MU is still the cleanest HBM story in the group, but I’m treating this mid-day 3.5–4% drop to the high $890s as continued de-risking in a chip complex that’s been red for eight sessions. Breadth outside semis is holding up better, so the selling still looks more selective than systemic.
I’d turn more constructive if $MU reclaims $930 and the SOX stops making lower lows for two sessions. Otherwise the risk is this stays a rotation out of AI memory rather than a buyable dip.
Adding $MU here or waiting for the group to stabilize first?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

$MU $908 (-2.5%) premarket, 9:01 ET. AI-spending worries are hitting memory stocks again, but yesterday's reversal keeps the bounce on my radar.

Reclaim and hold $914, then $932 is the next test. Below $900, the bullish setup is off. Buyers need to show up.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

Friday watch: $MU bounced despite hot PPI, closing at $931.24 near the day's high. That's the response bulls wanted.

Hold $914 and clear $932, and $950 is back in play. Lose $914 and I shelve the bounce setup. Still below the key averages, but buyers showed up.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: equal weight’s 1.37% gain versus the S&P ETF’s 0.28% makes a stronger case for spreading exposure beyond the biggest names.
I’d back off if equal weight gives back today’s gain and closes below $212.09 tomorrow.
Next dollar: equal-weight S&P or the standard index?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: equal weight gaining 1.37% and finishing near its session high gives today’s broadening real credibility.
I’d turn cautious if $RSP closes back below $212.09, erasing today’s advance.
Add equal weight tomorrow, or wait for small caps to lead another session?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

@bds38 @ThePupOfWallSt Thanks, Patrick. Means a lot coming from you. Staying patient and trusting the process.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: today’s broadening held into the close—equal weight and small caps both gained 1.37%, comfortably beating the S&P ETF’s 0.28%.
I’d turn cautious again if both erase those gains by tomorrow’s close.
Back equal weight next session, or wait for a second day of leadership?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

participation is broadening today—equal weight is up about 1% and small caps roughly 0.8%, both beating the barely positive S&P.
I’d back off that constructive read if both surrender their gains by the close.
Add equal weight now, or wait for tomorrow’s follow-through?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

My read: $GME gaining 2.2% and pressing its $28.22 annual high gives bulls the edge.
I’d drop that view after two consecutive closes below $26.58, today’s low so far.
Buy ahead of $28.22, or wait for a confirmed breakout?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

@ekwufinance If the thesis is that Warsh eventually has to cut, isn’t locking in long-term yields before the cuts exactly what retail is betting on?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

$MU's premarket selloff puts it on my bounce watch. Its latest quarter set records, but chip sentiment is ugly.

Reclaim $900 and $914 is the first test. Below $870, I stand aside. Bullish on the business; waiting for buyers to show up.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

The bell didn't fix inflation. Oct 14, 4:39pm ET: SPY $769.06 after hours, with September CPI at 3.7% YoY. If yields stay elevated, any rebound still has a financing problem. Calling this dip cheap feels like skipping the hard part.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

Small caps down ~2.2% while equal weight still holds up better than the S&P. Participation looks shaky.I want two straight days of small caps and equal weight both green and leading before I get constructive again.Buying the dip here or waiting for real participation?

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

Hot CPI just flipped the script. Core 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y) vs 0.2%/2.5% expected, lifting Oct hike odds from ~22% to nearly 50%. $QQQ already -2% while healthcare holds, $CRWV got smashed on bond yields. Still feels off how fast the soft-landing crowd vanished on one print.

[Michael Sullivan @MikeSInvests]

$BLK’s $205B in quarterly inflows strengthens the bull case—the business is winning fresh money, with annualized organic base-fee growth hitting 11%.
I’d turn cautious if that growth falls below 5% for two straight quarters.
Buy the asset manager, or stick with the S&P 500?