Mike Toner

Retail Stock Broker for 35yrs. Janney Montgomery Scott VP

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 on track for its 8th consecutive green month, its longest winning streak since 2017/18 📈🥳🤑🫂

[nick alvear @GoodLionTV]

@Polymarket called it years ago, made a film about. https://t.co/pirpnRNu8A

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Google just launched a direct attack on Nvidia's most valuable asset.

Not their chips. Their SOFTWARE.

And if this works, Nvidia's $4 trillion empire collapses.

Here's what just leaked:

Google is building "TorchTPU" - a secret project that makes PyTorch seamlessly run on Google's TPU chips instead of Nvidia GPUs.

Why does this matter?

PyTorch is the MOST USED AI framework on Earth. Every AI developer uses it.

And PyTorch was built around Nvidia's CUDA software.

Wall Street analysts call CUDA "Nvidia's strongest defensive wall."

It's the reason companies can't easily switch away from Nvidia even when alternatives exist.

You don't just buy Nvidia chips. You buy into their entire ecosystem.

Switching costs MILLIONS in engineering work. Months of rewrites. Performance drops.

So companies stay locked in.

Even when Nvidia raises prices. Even when supply runs short.

That's not a hardware moat. That's a SOFTWARE prison.

And Google just found the escape route.

Here's the problem Nvidia created for itself:

Google's TPU chips are actually GOOD. Competitive performance. Better availability. Lower cost.

But developers won't use them because Google's chips run JAX (Google's internal framework), not PyTorch.

That means if you want to use Google TPUs, you have to rewrite your entire codebase.

Nobody wants to do that.

So Google TPUs sit unused while developers fight over Nvidia chips.

Until now.

TorchTPU makes PyTorch run natively on Google hardware.

No rewrites. No performance loss. No months of engineering.

You just... switch.

And Google is partnering with META (who built PyTorch) to make it happen.

They're even considering OPEN-SOURCING parts of it to speed adoption.

Translation: Google is willing to give this away for free just to break Nvidia's lock.

The implications are insane:

Every company currently paying Nvidia's premium prices suddenly has a way out.

Oracle, Microsoft, OpenAI - all locked into Nvidia's ecosystem - can switch to Google.

Nvidia's pricing power evaporates overnight.

And the timing is perfect:

Nvidia is already facing heat. Semiconductor index dropped 3% today.

Oracle just lost their biggest investor over AI spending concerns.

Companies are realizing AI infrastructure costs are unsustainable.

Now Google hands them an alternative. Same performance. Lower cost. Better availability.

Jensen Huang knows exactly what this means.

CUDA has been Nvidia's untouchable advantage for YEARS.

It's why Nvidia trades at 50x earnings while AMD trades at 25x.

The software moat justified the premium.

But if Google removes that switching cost?

Nvidia becomes just another chip company.

And chip companies compete on price, not ecosystem lock-in.

Here's what happens next:

Google needs 12-18 months to make TorchTPU production-ready.

If it works, cloud providers will adopt it instantly. They WANT an alternative to Nvidia's monopoly pricing.

Amazon already building their own Trainium chips. Microsoft making Maia.

They're all trying to escape Nvidia. Google just gave them the software bridge.

Nvidia's response options are limited:

They can't buy Google. Can't kill PyTorch (Meta owns it). Can't stop open source.

Their only play is to keep improving CUDA faster than Google can catch up.

But that's a race, not a moat.

The market isn't pricing this in yet.

Nvidia down 2% today. Google down 2%.

Investors think this is just "another competitor."

They don't understand this is an attack on the FOUNDATION of Nvidia's valuation.

Hardware is replaceable. Software lock-in is what made Nvidia worth $4 trillion.

Google is attacking the lock-in.

Watch what happens in 2026 when TorchTPU goes live and companies realize they can actually leave Nvidia.

The "Nvidia is unstoppable" narrative dies.

And a $4 trillion valuation built on software moats gets repriced.

[Dirk Ehnts @DEhnts]

"The economy" does not exist. Capitalism with high inequality is one possible scenario, but there is no "economic law" that says it has to be like this. https://t.co/XlVMveJu87

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

Few

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

Crazy stat:

US data center construction is trending to equal total office construction in 2026.

Man, this is one huge bet we are making on AI.

Hope it works out. It’s a recipe for disaster if it doesn’t 💀

H/t @JohnFMauldin

[Eric Nelson, CFA @ServoWealth]

The most shocking retirement investing stat you’ll ever read!?!

If you retired in 2000 (similar stock valuations to today) with $1M, needing $50k/yr plus inflation:

1. If you put it in S&P 500, you RAN OUT OF $ in 2016

2. If you put it into 60/40 S&P 500/Total Bond, you are down to $199K (about to go broke)

3. If you put it into an all-stock asset class portfolio diversified across U.S. & Int’l large & small value, you have over $2.9M left (tripled your wealth)

If you’re retiring on anything other than a diversified asset class portfolio you’re taking a huge risk of running out of $

[Barchart @Barchart]

$7.5 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds, an all-time high 🚨🚨

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

⚠️Cash on the sidelines is almost nonexistent:

Money market fund total assets as % of the S&P 500 market cap stand at just 12.5%, a historically low level.

This is nearly half the level seen during the 2020 Crisis and well below the average over the last 18 years.

At the same time, fund manager cash levels are down to 3.3%, a record low.

Meanwhile, retail investor equity allocations are near the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.

Cash on the sidelines is one of the biggest myths.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The economy is "booming" because they hid all the bad data until Jan 🤪👇

Delayed to Jan 9
• Jobs report unemployment
• Housing Starts

Delayed to Mid-Jan
• CPI & PPI
• Real Earnings
• New Home Sales
• Retail Sales
• International Transactions
• Business Inventories

[Barchart @Barchart]

CBOE Volatility Index $VIX plunges to its lowest level this year 🚨📉 No fear left in the market 🫡

[The Rock Trading Group @The_RockTrading]

There has been no time in S&P 500 history, has it ran more than 30% before pulling back to the 200 Weekly Moving Average. Most recent steep pull backs was Covid Crash, where prices was 23% above the 200WMA. Post Covid, 25%. Tariffs 22%. Current S&P is 27% above the 200WMA. $SPY $QQQ

There will be some type of "crisis" next year.

Bookmark and share. This is not a doom and gloom, just reality check for 2026.

[Mike Toner @MikeToner9]

@CMDInvest Dude do you even have a drivers license yet??

[Mike Toner @MikeToner9]

@MrBitcoinWhalee Retard

[Mike Toner @MikeToner9]

@Vivek4real_ Well he is an idiot

[Mike Toner @MikeToner9]

@Alice_MiaX Why not keep it in your Roth??? & buy whatever?

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

That's the close.

Today was the lowest VVIX ( vol of vol) since Liberation Day. Volatility has been crushed. Complacency is rampant.

Good job everybody.

[Daniel Newman @danielnewmanUV]

$GOOGL buying Intersect Power is the beginning of a broader trend. Hyperscalers vertically integrating via energy acquisitions. It won't just be deals with $CIFR $IREN $WULF etc. It will be fully controlled energy assets in the stack.

Mark it. 💪🚀

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

I’M GETTING SICK AND TIRED OF WATCHING GOLD OUTPERFORM BITCOIN.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Oracle $ORCL debt risk soars to highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨🤯👀