Mikko Laaksonen

Supporting optimal solutions over ideologies. Macroeconomics + Investing. BSc(Hons) Economics & Marketing, MSc International Business.

No investment advice.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

Every now and then it's good to jot down intuitive thoughts on the current market and where it's headed. This might of use to someone else too.

Thoughts on the market, November 2022.

#investing #stocks #markets #osakkeet #sijoittaminen #pörssi #macroeconomics #economics

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@pulkitology Congrats! Great approach! When are the finance rounds? 😎

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@RistoMurto >5% 🌮

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@mikapleskinen exit liquidity

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@SaariAJ 🤷‍♂️

https://t.co/3Y4Hjd6OW6

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Goldman Sachs confirms Hormuz oil flows have collapsed from 19.5 million barrels per day to 0.5 million. Net disruption after pipeline rerouting: 17.2 million barrels per day offline. Two independent vessel trackers recorded zero oil tankers crossing the Strait on 12 March. The largest energy chokepoint on Earth is not closed by a navy. It is closed by a spreadsheet.

Seven major P&I clubs cancelled war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf effective 5th March under Solvency II protocols. Premiums for remaining voyage cover surged 300 to 1,000%, reaching 1% of hull value: $2 to $3 million per VLCC on a seven-day renewable basis. The $20 billion DFC reinsurance facility backed by Chubb has limited uptake because it excludes full P&I liability. Lloyd’s still offers single-voyage cover. Nobody is buying because the premium assumes the mines, and the mines are on the seabed.

The Strait is open. The insurance is not. And without insurance, no vessel moves.

While 19 million barrels per day sit stranded on either side of the chokepoint, one category of vessel continues transiting: Chinese shadow fleet tankers carrying Iranian crude settled in yuan through CIPS. Kpler confirms 11.7 to 16.5 million barrels have reached China since 28 February. These tankers do not carry Western insurance. They do not need Western insurance. They operate under Chinese state-backed coverage, Iranian IRGC safe passage, and yuan settlement through a payment system that processed $24.5 trillion in 2025 at 43% year-on-year growth. The only oil moving through Hormuz is oil that does not touch the dollar.

This is the moment the petrodollar system was designed to prevent.

In 1974, Saudi Arabia agreed to price oil exclusively in dollars in exchange for American military protection. That agreement created a world where every barrel required dollars, every central bank held dollar reserves because energy demanded them, and American financial hegemony rested on the simple proposition that oil equals dollars. For fifty-two years, the equation held. The 2026 war is breaking it not through policy but through physics: the insurance architecture that enabled dollar-denominated oil transit has collapsed, and the only transit still functioning operates in yuan.

The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen from 71% in 2000 to 59% today. Yuan global payments remain at 2.89%. No single event kills the petrodollar. But the Goldman data reveals what the contrarians miss: the war has created a live demonstration of a post-dollar energy system operating at scale. Chinese tankers transit. Yuan settles. CIPS clears. Iranian oil reaches Chinese refineries at $9 to $12 below Brent while Western buyers pay $96.72. The system works. It is working now. And every day the Strait remains closed to dollar shipping is another day the alternative proves it does not need the original.

President Trump’s multinational warship call is the response: send navies, reopen the Strait, restore dollar-denominated traffic, and kill the yuan alternative before it scales. If the coalition succeeds, dollar pricing survives. If it fails or fragments, the war that was launched to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme will have accidentally created the conditions for the multipolar energy order the dollar was designed to prevent.

The IEA has released 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, the largest coordinated draw in history. It covers 23 days of the 17.2 million barrel daily shortfall. The war is sixteen days old. The reserves are finite. The insurance cancellations are not.

Nineteen million barrels per day reduced to half a million. Zero tankers on 12th March. Yuan tankers the only vessels moving. And the fifty-two-year-old system that priced every barrel in dollars is watching its replacement operate in real time through the waterway it can no longer transit.

Full analysis here - https://t.co/eMrt5qYYst

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@shanaka86 How do you see the US securing the Venezuelan oil reserves ($14T) fits into this puzzle?

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@VAhoniemi Jep, jalostajien painajainen on ajaa tuotantoa alas koska ylösajo hidasta. Parempi ajaa vajaalla kapasiteetilla, antaa pumppukysynnän joustaa.

Tässä on se jännä piirre että jenkkijalostajilla on periaatteessa pääsy lähempänä ja siten logistiikalta halvempaan Venezuelan öljyyn

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@Rory_Johnston Thanks for the great episode on Oddly Lots! What do you think about US energy self-sufficiency and US refiners' lately gained access to Venezuelan oil?

https://t.co/awMLes6Fgn

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@bluechipdaily 321 Crack Spreads holding nicely >$40. $MPC can process Venezuelan crude, and has access. RBOB sticky vs crude. Middle East refineries can’t move product and damaged — and under risk of further bombing. Setup will hold for months. Market just waking up to this.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@elerianm It’s not about global markets like it has been. We need to analyze local dynamics. The US secured access to $14T worth of Venezuelan oil just before Iran operation.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@bluechipdaily 321 Crack Spreads holding nicely >$40. $MPC can process Venezuelan crude, and has access. RBOB sticky vs crude. Middle East refineries can’t move product and damaged — and under risk of further bombing. Setup will hold for months. Market just waking up to this.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@QuiverQuant US refiners are killing it.

https://t.co/Nj692LRpjq

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@bluechipdaily 321 Crack Spreads holding nicely >$40. $MPC can process Venezuelan crude, and has access. RBOB sticky vs crude. Middle East refineries can’t move product and damaged — and under risk of further bombing. Setup will hold for months. Market just waking up to this.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@LippoSuominen Jenkkijalostajat vuolee kultaa, kun on pääsy Venezuelan raakaöljyyn ja kyky jalostaa. Trump juuri julkisti ensimmäisen uuden jalostamoinvestoinnin 50 vuoteen.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@JuhoKostiainen Mistä rahat nousuun? Suomessa pitää tehdä todella rajuja liikkeitä pääomien säilyttämiseen ja kasvattamiseen. Vasta sitten kasvua, jonka tuloksena reaaliassetit kallistuvat. Vuosien homma ennen kuin näkyy käppyröissä.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@elerianm It’s a very nice situation for US refineries.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@marketplunger1 US refiners have it nice

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@bluechipdaily 321 Crack Spreads holding nicely >$40. $MPC can process Venezuelan crude, and has access. RBOB sticky vs crude. Middle East refineries can’t move product and damaged — and under risk of further bombing. Setup will hold for months. Market just waking up to this.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@bluechipdaily 321 Crack Spreads holding nicely >$40. $MPC can process Venezuelan crude, and has access. RBOB sticky vs crude. Middle East refineries can’t move product and damaged — and under risk of further bombing. Setup will hold for months. Market just waking up to this.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@elonmusk Vietnam 🇻🇳 is a bit surprising in the top 10!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump officially announces a "deal on economic and trade relations with China:"

Chinese actions:

1. Suspend new rare earth export controls

2. Issue general licenses for exports of rare earths

3. Take "significant measures" to end flow of fentanyl to the US

4. Suspend ALL retaliatory tariffs since March 4th

5. Suspend all retaliatory non-tariff measures since March 4th

6. Purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans

US actions:

1. Lower tariffs on China by 10 percentage points

2. Extend the expiration of certain Section 301 tariff exclusions until November 2026

This is a huge deal.

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@pepiteseurope @ecommerceshares bullish $mu ?

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@tompaja @ecommerceshares lol too right! still figuring out why siri isn't on a genai/llm api

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@JukkaLepikko Tai sitten suuri(n) osa 'sijoittajista' klikkailee 'ovelien' toimittajien clickbaitteja.

#showmetheincentiveishowyoutheoutcome

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@JukkaLepikko https://t.co/uZizrB8QwP

[Mikko Laaksonen @MikkosUsername]

@SaariAJ Arvaa kuka trimmasi puolet Kiina ETF'stä perjantaina... Ei ainakaan Bessent