MilKat10

Swing & Position trading focused on Nasdaq Nordic & US markets. Charts & observations, not recommendations. Tweeting when there is something interesting to say.

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Core PCE > Trimmed mean PCE (move the postline to cut rates)

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

Warsh has signaled he wants to change the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The Fed has used Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, as its benchmark since 2000. Warsh favors Trimmed Mean PCE, which removes the most extreme price movements each month instead of excluding whole categories.

The practical difference: Trimmed Mean PCE currently reads 2.36%, well below the 3.20% reading on Core PCE. Depending on which measure the Fed follows, the case for rate cuts looks very different.

This is not a minor procedural change. The metric the Fed uses to gauge inflation directly determines when it judges the economy to be at target.

If Warsh moves the committee toward Trimmed Mean PCE, he is mathematically moving the Fed closer to a declared victory on inflation, which creates runway for rate cuts even as headline readings stay elevated.

You’d think with 400+ Ph.D. economists and 500+ researchers on the payroll, the Fed would run the most sophisticated macro forecasting operation on the planet, leaving Bloomberg and every major hedge fund in the dust. Not even close. When the data doesn’t cooperate, just change the data.

Same thing I saw in the Army when time or weather worked against higher leadership, and we would quietly move the goalposts rather than admit the standard couldn’t be met. Can you tell why I didn’t stick around for the full 20 years?

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Time is running out here.

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

$LAM Laramide (#uranium $ura)...waiting for the breakout on the Monthly (probably triggered past $0.9 CAD). Literally 5 years of compression could be coming to an end with favorable seasonality until early March.

[Roy @SSJCurrency]

Here's a weekly recap of @AerodromeFi EPOCH 126

➣ 1.5M in rewards distributed to 40.9k veAERO lockers at an average of 26% APR

➣ 856k $AERO have been purchased by the new assistance fund that will trickle to FS, relay and locks

➣ New tokens launched via USDC or WETH pairs (PORTAL, ELSA, ACU, CLAWD, SURGE)

➣ All time volume on Aerodrome surged to 350B

➣ The future of flight school and the birth of the assistance fund have been announced - Lots of changes coming with AERO

➣ Kyberswap has integrated Aerodrome pools into its zap in function

➣ theautopilot(dot)xyz has delivered a veAERO APR of 21.3% via its algorithm and USDC based rewards distribution. Its holdings are now at 30.3M veAERO

➣ 40acres(dot)finance now has 8.7M (+0.2M vs last epoch) USDC borrowed against veAERO nfts with 0 USDC of current available liquidity to borrow from

➣ veAERO discounts on secondary marketplaces are sitting around 9%

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Didn't hold long...

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

$BTC Bitcoin ...breakout confirmed on the weekly (if we hold today). RSI looking very similar to April bottom, what followed was a rally to ATH. Expecting a lot of resistance if we price reaches 104-106.

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Also interesting to note that $BTC price is holding fine despite all the Greenland-related drama and tariffs (which should effect markets the coming week).

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Retirement account update: Sold all Gold/Silver-related miner stocks in late Dec. (waiting for pullback) and rebalanced with China + Swedish stocks (focus real estate) + Oil producers (minor exposure).

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

@TradingEgde https://t.co/2ZQeIcwnY8

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Closer to breakout...

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Closer to breakout...

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

$BTC plenty of shorts around $89-90k (smashing down longs systematically on the 1h chart). If price breaks $90k this could rapidly go to $95-98k. My hunch is that we stay around $83-89k until mid-Jan and then attempt to break to the upside.

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Palladium $XPDUSD // $PALL reached the target set in June 2024 (Oct/Nov. 2025).
https://t.co/Lf5CEjmznX

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Almost there (original tweet from June 2024)

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

$RIVN Breakout flagged on Sep. 5th has triggered.
https://t.co/eG1LrN7vqf

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

$RIVN Accumulation phase almost over

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

@Namzes_G @NFTdontcopyme Thanks @Namzes_G ! Given the liquidity backdrop for next year and the upcoming mid-terms, I do think we're going to 172k (my bull-case scenario) by end of next year. Ultimately, no one knows (look at ETH right?!🙃).

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

Account with potential gold nuggets: https://t.co/zcnVHoAoWH

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

@Bankless Great interview @bankless and @crossbordercap
US Debt maturity profile seems to have shifted to 5.4 years instead of 4 according to @RaoulGMI and @BittelJulien. If that really is the case, what would it mean for your 65mo. GLI cycle this time around? Prolonged? Thanks!

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

@BitcoinFear https://t.co/BvHXyqrKHl

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

#Crypto Fear and Greed around 10-11, not something you see every day. A bit of history:
- Feb. 2025: 1st wave of tariffs
- May-Jun. 2022: Lunablow up + Celsius freezing accounts
- May 2021: China mining ban
- Feb-Mar. 2020: Covid
- Sep-Oct. 2019: Repo Crisis

#BTC
@BitcoinFear

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

#Crypto Fear and Greed around 10-11, not something you see every day. A bit of history:
- Feb. 2025: 1st wave of tariffs
- May-Jun. 2022: Lunablow up + Celsius freezing accounts
- May 2021: China mining ban
- Feb-Mar. 2020: Covid
- Sep-Oct. 2019: Repo Crisis

#BTC
@BitcoinFear

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

In short:
I reflected more about some things this week:
> Cycles are narratives, liquidity is reality
> TGA drainage can add liquidity in the near term
> Indicators can be used as traps
Let's give it a week (10 days at most) and reassess the bull/bear market.

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

The idea of a four year Bitcoin cycle comes from a tiny set of data pts. This cycle already broke one of the supposed rules: Bitcoin reached new ATH before the halving.
The cycle doesn't drive liquidity. Liquidity drives the cycle. The dog moves the tail, not the other way around

[MilKat10 @MilKat10]

About the 50 week EMA:
A useful regime filter in the past for bull/bear filter, but when everyone watches the same level it becomes an easy target.
MM can push price below it to trigger fear, stops & liquidity hunts.
Next weekly close matters more I think.