$MRLN: Crossroads Capital Ryan O'Connor Discusses Merlin's US Special Operations Command CDR Approval
Tomorrow June 5th @ 1PM ET / @AboveAvgOdds
https://t.co/ZE0K31RMBo
$ASTS the CMF never dipped during that 24% two day drawdown. This is something that has never happened in ASTS' history. Even during the rally in the summer of 2024 it dipped on pullbacks
*NFA
Two main types of shocks: 1) dilutive shocks, and 2) exogenous market / event shocks. Type 1 takes a while to settle. Type 2 is fast and furious.
The fact that shorts have absolutely maxed out their positions based on my internal stock loan desk (amazing that I'm actually a meaningful part of the stock loan pool)... I'm definitely excited to see how this plays out when $ASTS posts pictures of the encapsulated Batch 1.
I guess we might get self-owned when they post a picture of the satellites not fitting...
$ASTS We're currently at the the 1st channel trend support. I still see $175 as a real possibility. $200 would be an overshoot of one of the trendlines. Top of the channel would be higher.
This is less about being predictive and more about seeing the full range of possible outcomes
*NFA
Super interesting how it’s under 20% of revenue but getting all the attention with prices spiking!
What’s your overall thesis on the stock?
How big of a driver do you see the molybdenum side being, and any thoughts on valuation/backlog converting to real growth from here ?
$ELMT
$ASTS bounced off the demand zone closing above the 8ema and with a dragonfly doji with the largest volume since 8/16/24. We now have a gap above to $122.
The upper red circle is the 2nd Blue Origin launch pad SLC-36/B, which is under construction and will likely become the focus. The integration facility below seems intact.
$ASTS a 20% drop in a single day never is fun but in the grand scheme of things we simply retraced to the 38.2% fib level which is technically a shallow pullback
*NFA
$ASTS at the 8ema here. RSI was red hot and showed no bearish divergence implying it will head higher before a true top can form. I'm remaining very bullish.
13ema is the next spot to watch if the 8ema fails.
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I hope everyone is ok. Prayers for anyone remotely close to this, although I'd have to believe they had safety protocols. I guess this is also why we end up sitting several miles away from the LV during launch.
$ASTS nothing has changed. Going sideways and even pullbacks at this stage is healthy and normal as the 8ema plays catch up. Most likely setting up for the next leg higher next week.
The RSIs still show strength which is also in line with where it was at this stage in prior rallies. In fact, the RSIs are stronger now than the Dec 2025/early 2026 rally.
*NFA
$VELO: Why I think Velo3D will get US Government funding sooner rather than later...
March 2, 2026. The U.S. Army puts an RFI. Deputy Under Secretary Dave Fitzgerald puts it plainly: "We're not just seeking funding. We're seeking creative, out-of-the-box financial and business models that break the mold. We want joint ventures, long-term leases, and service agreements that align the success of the investor with the soldier and the taxpayer."
https://t.co/RXQKlgVcUk
The Army laid out six strategic pillars.
Pillar 5: Advanced Manufacturing and Technology Adoption — specifically called out AI, robotics, and 3D printing for modernizing the Organic Industrial Base. They want private industry to fund the capex. In return, partners get guaranteed commercial production capacity at Army depots.
That's not a government contract but rather a co-investment model. And it happens to be exactly how Velo3D's Rapid Production Solution works.
February 10, 2026: Before the SCI even launched publicly, VELO was already inside the door. The company was qualified as the first additive manufacturing vendor for U.S. Army Ground Vehicles through TACOM.
March 30, 2026: DLA awards VELO a $9.8M five-year IDIQ under the Joint Additive Manufacturing Acceptability Pilot Parts Program. Covers every military branch — Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, Space Force. The contract establishes a repeatable procurement pathway for AM spare parts across DoD sustainment operations.
May 18, 2026: The Army announces the full Tranche 1 structure and drops the details on the upcoming Advanced Manufacturing CSO dropping "in the first weeks of June."
Four production lines:
CCAD (Corpus Christi): rotary-wing engines, transmissions, rotor blades, bearings
ANAD (Anniston): M1 Abrams and M88 engine and transmission overhaul
RRAD (Red River): track shoes, road wheels, tire assemblies
TYAD (Tobyhanna): wiring harness connectors, raw PCBs
https://t.co/w6Za8dtlMr
CCAD and ANAD are not high-volume commodity manufacturing. They are low-volume, high-complexity, geometrically intricate metal components with obsolescence challenges and surge capacity requirements. That is the exact part profile where LPBF additive manufacturing comes into play.
Now read what CEO Arun Jeldi said in Q4 2025 ER back in March:
"Based on current demand trajectories and our expanding program portfolio, we have developed a long-term capacity plan envisioning up to approximately 400 production systems, ramping over the next decade... As an asset-rich operation, our production systems are well-suited to asset-backed debt financing, enabling us to scale our fleet with minimal dilution to shareholders. We are also exploring potential government-backed lending programs and other non-dilutive funding sources."
The Army's SCI CSO offers guaranteed production capacity commitments from the U.S. government at Army depots.
The Army doesn't hand depot access to vendors who haven't been cleared. The CSO will require demonstrated DoD qualification and a production track record. VELO's current stack:
- First AM vendor qualified for Army Ground Vehicle Systems Center (Feb 2026)
- CRADA with DEVCOM Ground Vehicle Systems Center
$32.6M Project FORGE contract via Defense Innovation Unit
- $9.8M IDIQ with DLA JAMA covering all military branches (Mar 2026)
- $11.5M full-rate production RPS contract with a U.S. defense prime
The FY2026 NDAA codified additive manufacturing as critical defense infrastructure and banned DoD from procuring 3D printers made in or digitally connected to China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea. Domestic LPBF capability just became strategically protected. VELO's Sapphire systems are built in the U.S.
$QS approaching its breakout point of the latest rounding bottom/cup formation. Over $10.56 area can see over $13 and possibly head for 52 week highs
*NFA