Arcos

fortis fortuna adiuvat

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

When #Bitcoin made new ATHs one year earlier than usual in March 2024, it created the first derailment of any kind that the Halving Cycles Theory has ever seen.

Price showed it could be 1 year accelerated, on track for forming a top late this year.

Could anything set us back on track for a top late 2025 as usual?

There is one possibility...

With the huge positive move following ETFs being out of character, what if it was a fluke move?

To prove this, price would need to extend the time it takes to reach ATHs again by over 7 months, past November 28th which starts our normal Red Year when ATHs are made.

It's a tall order, but possible.

Otherwise, Bitcoin still remains on track for a top earlier than normal which breaks the so far set in stone 4 year cycles as the Halving Cycles Theory depicts them.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

With a quick recovery, #Bitcoin would still be on track for a cycle top by the end of this year following a 2017-like trajectory.

Both now and 2017 went slightly over ATHs in March, but 2017 was already making new ATHs by late April/Early May.

A longer correction around ATHs can push the cycle top back, with most likely time frames being mid or late 2025.

To see our top late 2025 as normal, price would need to not make new ATHs for 7 months, or until after November 28th this year.

It all hinges on what Bitcoin does next...

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

#Bitcoin Weekly RSI is now retreating from the Cycle Top Zone.

The majority of the cycle price action is usually completed by the second and final visit.

In the first and second cycles, the second move to the Cycle Top Zone marked the end, while in 2021 it came just under the Cycle Top at 58k in January.

The Weekly RSI closed in the cycle top zone which has always triggered the cycle top parabola.

Final tops have come 7 - 10 months after this happens implying a final top between September and December of 2024.

Could the cycle be over once RSI visits the Cycle Top zone again? Using other data will be critical to know for sure.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Will #Bitcoin see a double top like we saw in 2013 and 2021?

The 2-week Fisher Transform should be able to tell us.

More obvious double tops like the 1st and 3rd cycles created powerful initial surges on the Fisher Transform, while 2017 created a more subtle initial rise in June 2017.

All final cycle tops ended on a regular bearish divergence, where price is higher but the indicator is lower.

We are now approaching 2017 levels. If the indicator can pause there and not explode to the 2013/2021 line, we are more likely to see a single top.

I am still in favor of a top later this year most likely in December 2024.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The #Bitcoin Magic Bands continue to be incredibly accurate, with now a slight rejection from Level 2.5, which we have seen in every cycle.

After breaking Level 2, our target became Level 3 now priced at $87,333.

But the ultimate target is the cycle top band at $118,362.

As price continues to grow without hitting the band, the target will increase.

The uptilt of the bands has started, signifying we are entering price expansion and the end of the cycle.

These bands have been useful in calling every cycle top and identifying most major local highs and lows.

We're not through here yet!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

With #Bitcoin entering price discovery mode and new ATHs a year earlier than usual, we may be witnessing the death of the 4-year cycle.

Our before, perfectly structured cycles would have called for a top late 2025, but we seem to now be right on track for a top late 2024.

With our cycle only just now breaking into new ATHs, we look to compare most to 2017.

Cycles 1 and 3 (2013 and 2021) were just about to form their first tops in April at about this same time.

In price discovery, it becomes time to kick back and relax for a while. The fun is just getting started for both Bitcoin and Altcoins.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The perfect way to outline the #Bitcoin mass psychology is using the Halving Cycles Theory Sine Waves.

We have left behind depression, and disbelief to enter the next stage:

Hope.

After a long period of despair, finally, price starts to show some signs of making a turnaround.

From undervaluation, Bitcoin has returned to fair value.

Starting in June 2024, people will finally start to believe as price inches closer to new ATHs before Red Year.

Emotions are the steam engine that drives crypto forward, always different, but always the same.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

There is no return to the lows this cycle for #Bitcoin.

That takes place during the second phase of the Chande Momentum Oscillator, and the window of oppertunity is closed.

Phase 3 is here, the best is yet to come and is only just beginning.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

In our 2023 green year, #Altcoins barely did a thing.

But when we take a look at BitTime, which applies to more than just Bitcoin, you'll notice a similarity.

Look how terrible the performance was for Altcoins in the last white cycle green year! (2015)

And then what happened?

Altcoins absolutely exploded in 2016 blue year.

I don't think this time will be any different.

Many think that Altcoins can not do well until new BTC ATHs (Red Year), but they are due to gain a lot of strength even before that.

The 2020 blue year performed very well considering there was a huge black swan in the middle.

21 days left until white cycle Blue Year arrives.

Good things coming for Bitcoin, and Altcoins!

[Fiboswanny - Professional Chart Squiggler @FiboSwanny]

if this pattern persists.. mark down Oct 31st 2024 to be the day the ATH breaks :)

[Dunbar @dunbar422]

@DTAPCAP @RaoulGMI Going back to 01-03 and 07-09 the market didn’t bottom until after the liquidity was at or near its cyclical peak. We’re still at the trough in liquidity.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

The key to macro is to learn to live in the future...

This week I want to give you all the gift of knowledge and share most of my GMI Jan Think Piece.

The idea is to encourage us all to step back, think about things differently and learn something new.
https://t.co/5udmMS7lZB

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Stocks have not priced in the credit crunch that will result from the banking crisis

It won't last long

A thread 🧵

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Something to think about on the weekend. An important thread on monetary debasement...

You hear me talk about MOAR COWBELL a lot. This is the meme of monetary and fiscal stimulus that has become a default setting for our world...

[Shitc0in @shitc0in]

🧵 THE ULTIMATE MICRO CAP HUNTING THREADOOOOR 🧵

[dave the wave🌊🌓 @davthewave]

#Bitcoin 1 year moving average now crossing the 2 year moving average as per the corrective phase after a speculative run-up.

Looking good from a technical perspective.... no matter the sentiment. Those buying these levels have previously done well.

[dave the wave🌊🌓 @davthewave]

The LGC channel, MACD, and RSI all signaling the bottom to be put in over the next few months.

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

Crypto Scammers stole $14 billion from people last year.

Follow this checklist to protect you and your funds:

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

A thread about Network Effects and how to value digital assets:

For Global Macro Investor, my independent research service, @Remi_Tetot and I spent a long time analysing various on chain data sets to see what were the key drivers of network price and network effects ...

[Will @WClemente]

Explanation of Perpetual Swaps: Open Interest, Premiums/Discounts, Funding rates, Liquidations

[THREAD 1/15]