Gary’s Model

AFL/NFL model tracking for @SportsTalkGary #science “We bet on numbers, not teams.” 2024 AFL: +27.7u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

@ExtraHalfPoint I would think it’s a GO too, but at this part of the field you have a decent chance at a FG anyways even if you convert

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

70-57 +6.3u

Regardless of how the GRAND FINAL goes tonight, it will be the third straight AFL winning season, but also the worst season yet unfortunately.

Brisbane Lions -6.5 for 1u because you gotta bet the grand final! Three peat incoming!

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

Brutal beat losing the 4th quarter 34-1 to lose the game by 12 and not cover 11.5

Hawthorn +2.5 1u in the other prelim final for me.

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 2026

70-55 +9.5u

Prelim final 1

Sydney +11.5 2u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 2026

70-55 +9.5u

Prelim final 1

Sydney +11.5 2u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL

69-55 +8.5u

Brisbane -21.5 1u

#AFLFinals

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL

Geelong -9.5 1u
Sydney +23.5 1u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

67-54 +7.6u

Cold start to end the H&A season, but we’re on to finals!

Collingwood +1.5 1u

Pies get it done!

#AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

67-53 +9.2u

Melbourne -14.5 1.5u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 67-52 +11.4u

Last week of the Home and Away season!

Collingwood +24.5 2u

More than enough of a “motivation” tax here with Brisbane needing a win and differential and Collingwood not needing anything, but this is too many points.

#AFLPicks #AFLBets #AFLLionsPies

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 67-52 +11.4u

Last week of the Home and Away season!

Collingwood +24.5 2u

More than enough of a “motivation” tax here with Brisbane needing a win and differential and Collingwood not needing anything, but this is too many points.

#AFLPicks #AFLBets #AFLLionsPies

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 66-51 +11.5u

Freo/Adelaide u171.5 1u
North Melbourne +20.5 1u

#AFLPicks #AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 2026: 61-48 +9.2u

Round 22:

Hawthorn +5.5 1u
Melbourne +10.5 1u
Sydney -37.5 1u
Gold Coast +17.5 2u
Collingwood -9.5 1u
West Coast/Collingwood u170.5 1u
St. Kilda +6.5 1u
St. Kilda/Carlton u174.5 1u

#AFLPicks #AFLRound22 #AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL: 58-45 +8.5u

Stinky stinky slate

St. Kilda +13.5 1u
GWS +3.5 2u
Carlton +24.5 1u
Richmond +6.5 1u
Gold Coast +8.5 1u
Essendon +41.5 1u

#AFLPicks

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 55-44 +6.5u

Fremantle -45.5 1.5u
Hawthorn -54.5 1u
Richmond +41.5 1u
Richmond ML +840 0.33u
Brisbane -40.5 1u

#AFLPicks

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

Easy winner 51-39 +6.6u

Huuuugggeee slate this week:
Port Adelaide +47.5 3u
Melbourne -14.5 1u
Melbourne/North o179.5 1u
Brisbane/West Coast o171.5 2u
West Coast +43.5 1u
Richmond +50.5 1u
Gold Coast +0.5 1u
Gold Coast/Western o170.5 1.5u
Essendon +39.5 2u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 50-39 +5.7u

Geelong -12.5

#AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 50-39 +5.7u

Geelong -12.5

#AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 45-37 +2.8u

North/Collingwood u175.5
Port/St. Kilda u170.5
Greater Western Sydney +9.5
Carlton +11.5
Adelaide -17.5
Essendon/Brisbane o187.5
Essendon +62.5

All 1u. #AFLPicks #AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

Added another unit on Essendon +29.5

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 40-34 +2.2u

West Coast +31.5 1u
Melbourne/Hawthorn o165.5 1u
Gws/Freo o177.5 1u
Freo -20.5 1u
Richmond +34.5 1u
Richmond/Carlton o168.5 1u
North/Port u172.5 1u
Essendon +29.5 1u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

Back on track!

GWS/Hawthorn o170.5 1u
Essendon +13.5 1u

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 38-33 +1.7u

Lets hopefully get on track with Brisbane Lions +2.5 1u

#AFLBets

[Gary’s Model @ModelGary]

AFL 38-33 +1.7u

Lets hopefully get on track with Brisbane Lions +2.5 1u

#AFLBets