Kevin O'Neill

The final adopter of Sports Betting Twitter, circa mid-September, 2022.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

The regulation of Prediction Markets by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is opposed by 44 states' attorney generals.

Why?

The answer may may be found in how much state governments have in common with offshore & street bookies, detailed in our latest whiteboard video.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@gfliverpool9966 Probably, but the games are such massively valuable TV properties. The networks want them in the slots planned for.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

If the FAA ground stop goes on to Saturday, there are several NFL games that could take place with early Saturday bus travel….

Bills/Jets
Jags/Titans
Panthers/Saints
Vikings/Packers
Rams/Cardinals
Steelers/Bengals

Chiefs would have a 12 hour haul to the Falcons.

Everything else is 18 hours or more. Can’t see that being forced upon teams.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@Ryd9qj @dotp1971 NFL teams fly day before game unless coast to coast.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@StrtKing Yes it would.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@CampbellJD Right around there. It would be on the low end of any range you see due to police escort. The D1 team escorted caravans are impressive.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

Not sure why Arizona St wouldn’t at least have been in the air for a 3:30PM EDT game in Orlando.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

Some historic traditional conference rivalries are in jeopardy tomorrow due to the FAA ground stop.

Baylor/BYU
Arizona St/UCF
Tennessee/A&M
Washington/Mich St
Minny/Penn State

Everyone else on this list (from The Athletic) can make it happen by bus.

[Rick @rickharvey17]

@ExtraHalfPoint

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@rickharvey17 That’s surprising. Ole Miss needs to get on a bus. Doable drive to Norman.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

When it comes to the FAA ground stop and football I would think most CFB road teams would have arrived at their destination by now with some possible west coast exceptions. But even west coast teams would be in the air. It appears planes in the air are getting to their destinations.

If it doesn’t get fixed some NFL games could be in jeopardy.

[Anna Giaritelli @Anna_Giaritelli]

🚨 On FAA nationwide ground stop, FAA employee tells me: “Being that it is affecting a lot of the country id say it’s a major issue with AI type implications.” Bryan Bedford and Sean Duffy have been touting all week the new AI system that controllers say makes no impact on their work.

He added “I wouldn’t rule out a cyber attack though.”

[Rick @rickharvey17]

@ExtraHalfPoint

[Mark R. Levin @marklevinshow]

My AOL email is back and working great. How's it going with Microsoft Outlook email users?

[Dan Abrams @DoctorRazzWSOP]

What do you get when you take a +EV bet and weld an arb onto it?

https://t.co/9fCTOebVlC

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

Sure. Bookmaker. @Pinnacle @CircaSports.

No info to be gleaned at any of them? Ridiculous.

I would like the prediction markets to be successful. Defensible comments would help the cause.

Also, a 50/50 contract at high-fee Kalshi is the equivalent of laying -107.

[Bill Speros @billsperos]

Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ on sports betting vs. prediction markets:

"It's always about the structure. You don't really go to a sports book to get information about anything. You do on Kalshi, and the reason is because you know it does enable the use cases of prediction, an aggregation of people's opinions, millions of people, in a way that a sports book doesn't."

@B20 @dianebrady

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

“Unbelievable at the end!”

Brilliant call of a spectacular “remember where you watched it” event.

R. I. P.

[Pat Forde @ByPatForde]

All-time favorite Dan Hicks call. Same for many others, I know.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@grpwins George, while I’m sorry it didn’t work out but I’m glad you closed your position. I was getting sick of the soy milk and tofu, which we went heavy on in our household in an effort to show our support. Please buy pork bellies next time.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@JMcCormac17 Not exactly. If you bet.. err… trade 5 different games you may have different counterparties on some of them.

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

The cluelessness of this quote shows this judge has little understanding of what she is ruling on in this case.

Nearly every prediction market transaction has at least one highly sophisticated, quant-based party, whether a small trading group or institutional money.

[Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGAL]

Judge McMahon pulls no punches in a remarkable footnote:

“Novig makes its money, not off the sucker who places a losing bet on a sports event, but by charging two suckers a fee for the privilege of betting against each other on its platform.”

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@WALLACHLEGAL incredible quote

[Kevin O'Neill @ExtraHalfPoint]

@potatokmish You can throw out the record books when the Chippewas and Hornets match up!!!