MomoXBT

BSc in AI, MSc in Computational Science (Finance). Former LoL Pro, now $NQ & crypto trader. Focus on the process and results will follow. $ZNN $HYPE

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

Fantastic Entries and Where to Find Them

Few weeks ago @Jebus reminded me of a piece of work that I read back in 2018-2019 when I was still new to charting and trading properly and it make a significant impact on me.

As I was reading the article my thought were: "THE MMs ARE FKING US AND THIS IS PROVE I KNEW IT!". The thing with thoughts like that is that it is utterly useless. It doesn't provide actionable thoughts.

The article I'm talking about is The Game of Deception (https://t.co/8hvRy3BMWr) which covers the "god.pdf" which is a fantastic read but it's one of those nice reads which nods you that there might be actionable structures that can be played on the chart and that's what this thread will cover.

Disclaimer: I do not know how true every piece is that is written in this article

🧵

[Jebus @Jebus]

This is your bible for unregulated low cap markets

It's basically a point by point of how the pumps in reminiscences of a stock operator happen from the MM perspective, it's how most lowcaps (and many mid caps) still function
https://t.co/KvipjBDhd2

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@A1_Dandy What about your thoughts on Looks of Determination vs Improved Techniques? Gives you another level 2 spell and it arguably scales quite well compared to Improved Techniques

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

$SPCX IPO pricing is at 135$ and on Hyperliquid it is currently priced at 163.55$.

I'm sure we all see the same thing right?

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

Can confirm. Uncle worked at Renaissance and used Mythos to generate alpha and one shot the code with no mistakes in 2019.

If you think Mythos is the SOTA model rn… better think again!

[qm @quantymacro]

some have asked me about my time in Renaissance Technologies. although I’m retired I can’t really say much due to NDA, but I have an unseen interview snippet from my ex-colleague Nick (hope the kids are doing well mate) that I’m comfortable to share. a lot of alpha in there

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

Got back into Pokemon about a year ago. Now I see many CT people also hopping into TCGs.

On one end, CT is disproportionally more wealthy than most and are willing to spend millions on internet monies so good for more punp.

On the other hand… is this a top signal? 🤔

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@gainzy222 Citrini #4?

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@testinprodcap Last time I was here (2019) cities were already way more modern compared to the west. Now that I visit again, it is even more extreme. China & HK speedrunning modernmaxing its wild

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@RookieXBT Rookie, the last time you said this in crypto it was a top signal…

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@systematicls Quantitative F̶i̶n̶a̶n̶c̶e̶ VC

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@maruushae Grading cards 👀

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@therobotjames So you’re telling me I can’t just let Claude code this without any knowledge like all the polymarket slop thats written?? 🤯

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@macrocephalopod Claude, create a one-shot arbitrage bot in stocks. Make no mistakes.

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@ScottPh77711570 So I knew how to do all these things at some point and could do it again with a day ofcrefreshing that knowledge. Is it truly necessary to be able to know this for a quant interview?

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

All this talk about Binance being insolvent is dumb as shit btw. That does not mean one should keep their funds on Binance; always stay SAFU.

Alas, if this causes $BNB to irrationally dump, it will be an opportunity.

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

I was quite baffled with how little liq wicks this sell off had so it must’ve been led by spot but I could not figure out where this came from.

This explanation is a feasible one.

The saying “buy when there is blood on the streets” will hold true.

In on $ETH from 1860$

LFG

[Parker @TheOtherParker_]

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.

If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.

Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.

We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.

This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.

The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.

Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.

I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.

Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@RohOnChain On first read this looks hella neat and a good way to learn more about a quantitative system to arbitrage Polymarket. Will look into this more and try coding it, thank you for the read!

[Ethena @ethena]

USDe Proof of Reserves are typically provided on a weekly basis by 3rd party independent attestors including leading firms such as Chaos Labs, Chainlink, Llama Risk and Harris & Trotter.

On request from the community, we have provided a Proof of Reserves outside of the regular cadence following the market events in the last 24hrs which have been linked below this message.

Each of these independent 3rd parties have confirmed USDe remains overcollateralised by approximately ~$66m.

Maximum transparency.

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@StalkHQ @GrailedGG @FlippingProfits @Juicycooks @0xRenaissance I'm trying to understand what this token even is used for? On the @grailedGG website you buy gems without interacting with this token so is this token only a buyback flywheel that depends on whether the website succeeds?

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@GrailedGG So what does $MAGIK do exactly if the gems in the app are bought with SOL?

[MomoXBT @MomoXBT]

@twitconomics @lazyvillager1 This would be the 9000 iq play considering what the cost basis some of these other ponzis have.

gud take