The market's character is still one of a bear market or cyclical correction; strong open, fade into close and major average living below the 200-day line. Before a reliable bottom can be established, we need to see better price and volume action, including better action from breakout names forming bases.
We are clearly NOT out of the woods yet. The market backdrop is one where sentiment has improved with rising pessimism, but not a full capitulation. The VIX has reached bear warning levels, but remains below true washout extremes. A volatility washout is not required for a bottom, but would add conviction.
Bullish Scenario
--The war ends
--Oil prices recede
--Stagflation concerns ease
--Central banks continuing their easing trajectory
Under this scenario, we would expect:
-A broadening market advance
-Emergence of new leadership from sound bases
-A Follow-Through Day (FTD) on the NYSE and/or NASDAQ confirming institutional buying with little in the way of immediate distribution
-Significant drop in volatility
Bearish Scenario
--The war persists or escalates
--The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted
--Oil prices make new highs
--Stagflation becomes evident in hard economic data
This would likely result in:
-Limited general market rally attempts with most breakout stocks failing
-Lack of follow-through from breakout names
-Further deterioration in breadth and leadership
-Dearth of setups in buyable position
-Continued elevated volatility and distribution
In that case, sentiment would likely need to reach higher levels of pessimism before a durable market bottom could form. In its absence, and end to the factors that are pressuring the market could cause the market to bottom in less dramatic fashion.
Portfolio to protect against agenda 2030 & central bank currencies
20oz of gold 100oz of silver
3 rental properties
2 Bitcoins
2x Steel Rolex Daytonas
20k cash for emergencies
This is wild.
Bitcoin’s current price action is almost perfectly mirroring the late-stage bull run and early bear market from last cycle.
Hope it’s not true, but it’s hard to unsee.
Strategy has acquired 168 BTC for ~$18.8 million at ~$112,051 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 26.0% YTD 2025. As of 10/19/2025, we hodl 640,418 $BTC acquired for ~$47.40 billion at ~$74,010 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRK $STRF $STRD https://t.co/UILBHXkA6a
Warren Buffett vs Nancy Pelosi
Based on the most recent filings here are Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway's largest public stock holdings vs the largest holdings in Nancy Pelosi's public stock portfolio
To those that keep calling for ALT Season:
In order for ALT Season to happen, ETH needs to go to $5k+ and hold it as support.
For ETH to go to $5k *AND* hold it as support, it means BTC needs to also go to all time highs.
The process of BTC going to all time highs would make BTC dominance go higher, just like it has all cycle.
So the only way to get an "ALT Season" is for BTC.D to first go up as BTC goes to new highs.
If that does not happen, then ALT Season does not happen.
So while the gurus sit out here and yap about BTC.D dropping now and they shill their shitcoins once again, just remember in order to get what they want, they first have to be wrong.
AGAIN.