达达

skater/guitar player/coder

[雨夜漫步大祭司 @Fides_Ascensio]

认错是绝对不可能的。

川普打伊朗，阿刁弄新冠，以及双双落败，是二十一世纪人类两大遗产（诺奖得主刘晓波对此句亦有贡献）。

这两大遗产向世人揭示了两国的深度草台，以及 MAGA 和厉害了我的国叙事的破产。

[tom 🎸 @uncreativetom]

love that the eu forced Apple to proudly display in store that their iPads are built shitty

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Absolutely incredible:

Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952.

We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history.

[Ram Truck Month @WarhammerMents]

@dadsinyour_area Yoga pants shape where Jeans have to be shaped by the ass. Yoga pants make too many assless women look like they have ass.

[涂涂姐 @SH1oUn]

中国最诡异的点在于都是一群中老年在做一些很teenager的事，在路边尿尿在摩托大声放歌，然后teenager们忙着研究自己的原神家庭和什么人生是旷野这种很中老年的事

[Frankcistems @frankcistems]

@Emmys The economy is hard. Birds are now working as ubers

[ApoStructura @ApoStructura]

This actually supports the smartphone hypothesis.

The working class got one-shotted by smartphones

[Deedy @deedydas]

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.

Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).

Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.

Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.

As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.

2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"

3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.

4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."

I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.

Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".

Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

[𝓫𝓮𝓻 𝓵𝓲𝓷✨ @realmfberlin]

Before social media took over . Good times

[雨夜漫步大祭司 @Fides_Ascensio]

洒家认为，中国和美国真正的较量并不在谈判桌上，而是在两个慢变量的赛道上：

1、债务的可持续性

两边都在走A路径（以债养债、财政主导），但速度和缓冲不同。美国有美元储备货币地位作为缓冲，可以向全世界输出通胀；中国没有这个缓冲，因为人民币不是国际储备货币，资本账户不开放。

美国的债务/GDP约120%，但有全球最深的债券市场来消化；中国的政府显性债务号称只有60%，加上地方政府债务，早就超过了 GDP 的100%，其消化机制远弱于美国，只能让早已不堪重负的中国人民扛鼎。

2、人口趋势

尽管美国目前在政治上正在收紧移民政策，但通过移民维持人口增长是其基本国策，移民政策最终会根据市场需要进行再平衡。

除此以外，美国的生育率约为约1.7。而中国的生育率只有 1.0，没有移民补充，劳动力每年净减少数百万。

到2035年，美国的劳动力还在增长，中国的劳动力将减少约1亿。

这个差距是不可弥合的。

这两条赛道上的比赛结果，将决定未来三十年的全球权力格局。

英明神武如千古一帝习近平，也并没有什么几把办法让中国人民多生孩子多借钱。

[Anish Moonka @anishmoonka]

A kid drew himself sleeping in bed between mom and dad and labeled it 'safe.'

In Japan, this exact sleeping arrangement has a name. They call it 'the river.' Mother is one bank. Father is the other. The child between them is the water. Roughly 70% of Japanese mothers sleep this way with their kids, sometimes through the teenage years. The Western model of putting a kid alone in their own bedroom is barely 200 years old. For most of human history, in most cultures still alive today, kids slept beside their parents.

James McKenna runs the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at Notre Dame. He spent decades watching what happens when parents and kids share a bed. The bodies sync up. Heart rates align with the parent's, breathing falls into the same rhythm, and by morning even sleep stages have started matching. The parent's body, in McKenna's words, acts as a kind of biological jumper cable for the child's.

In 2013, researchers in the Netherlands tracked 193 babies through the first year of life. They measured cortisol, the brain's main stress hormone. Babies who had spent more weeks co-sleeping in the first six months produced less cortisol under stress at 12 months. Sleeping near a parent had rewired the kid's stress system to be calmer under pressure.

Inside the kid's brain at night, the amygdala, the fear alarm, gets more sensitive as the body gets tired. Darkness makes it worse. A 2021 paper in PLoS One from Australian researchers showed that light directly suppresses amygdala activity. Lights off, alarm louder. The whole brain is wired to read 'alone in a dark room' as a threat.

Now add a parent's body to that bed. The kid's nervous system reads warm body, breathing nearby, familiar smell. The threat alarm dials down. Two parents on either side dial it down twice. The drawing is the kid's brain calculating maximum safety: I am surrounded by the people who keep me alive, and nothing can reach me without going through them first.

The arrangement in this drawing is what most of human history called 'sleeping.' Sleeping the kid alone in another room is a 200-year-old Western invention that we forgot was an invention. Every kid who has ever padded into your room at 3am and crawled into the middle of the bed is just trying to redraw the picture.

[lufei @lufeieth]

看到一个16岁女孩在秋千项目绳子没栓紧而摔死的事故。

三年前我写的“低端旅游设施的草台班子和你只是肉鸡”理论和公式，还提到了“秋千”这一项。

你去土耳其、埃及坐热气球、7月雨季去普吉岛坐船出海，去某个县城游乐场坐过山车跳楼机、旋转飞机、大摆锤，在某个山区旮旯蹦极、悬崖秋千、悬崖缆车等。

都存在这些风险。

解释下“大都是草台班子”和“游客只是贡献门票的肉鸡”：

“草台班子”的特质：无知，不专业，不用心。

归零公式：
大都是草台班子和山寨设备
X 操作人员眼睛呆滞三心二意疏忽
X 机械长时间运营必然出故障
X 高负荷运转失修
X 外地游客不是他们自己家人而只是贡献门票的肉鸡
X遍历性
= 出事故概率100%
=肉身归零。

“千金之子坐不垂堂；百金之子不骑衡”。
要把自己当个千金宝贝一样来做风控。
不要把命交给一个每天领100多块工资红马甲兼职草台人员的手里。

[Kraut @The_Davos_Man]

It may surprise some of the Poles and Ukrainians here, but in the Western education system we barely learn anything about how awful communism was. Our ideas &amp; theories of what constitutes tyranny are largely shaped by the experience of fascism. Communism has been written out.

[Yo @Spidey_E26496]

@rs112233445 @caramelotxt

[颜克权 @yantanzhang]

东北喊麦常用词汇解析：

[bird hk @birdhk3]

@igeekbb 阴谋论永远不可能失败，即使你把烧红的铁球放在他手心里，他也可以说是你篡改了他的中枢神经信号。

[UnveiledChina @Unveiled_ChinaX]

If this is real, it could be one of the largest data breaches in China’s history.

A hacker group claims it extracted over 10 petabytes of data from a state-run supercomputing facility, widely believed by experts to be the National Supercomputing Center in Tianjin. This center supports thousands of clients, including research institutes, aerospace programs, and defense-linked organizations.

What’s reportedly in the data:
- Documents marked “secret” in Chinese
- Missile and bomb schematics
- Aerospace and aviation research
- Bioinformatics and fusion simulation data
- Files linked to major state entities like AVIC and COMAC

Cybersecurity experts who reviewed sample data say it matches what you would expect from such a facility, though the full breach is not independently verified.

Even more concerning:
- The attacker claims access lasted months without detection
- Sample datasets were posted online via Telegram
- Full access is reportedly being sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars in crypto

At this stage, the scale and origin are still being verified. But if even partially true, it points to a serious vulnerability in infrastructure tied to China’s scientific and defense ecosystem.

If a centralized system like this can be penetrated, what does that say about the security of the data it was processing?

#China #Cybersecurity #CCP #DataBreach #Geopolitics #Tech

https://t.co/mIjHNP3pW4

[李老师不是你老师 @whyyoutouzhele]

甘肃省兰州市热心市民周禄宝，在新浪微博共发布了25多条微博，仅仅因为其中有几十条转发了甘肃农民工讨薪的微博，竟然被认定为寻衅滋事罪，竟然被量刑建议七年半且罚金五万元。

法庭上，周禄宝的辩护律师说道：或许对于你们这些吃皇粮旱涝保收的官员来说，五万块钱实在不值一提。但你们能想象吗？对于一位每月只有3500块工资且要寄给家庭3200块，每个月只留给自己支配300块钱的农民工来说，五万块不是小数。你们知道吗？即便是这区区的三百块钱，他还拿出了多少钱帮助过多少人？你们知道吗？这位农民工为了保住这份一年四季全天候工地看大门的工作，他六年都没有回家过过春节了。

当他的辩护律师讲到这些的时候，很多被告人眼圈都红了，但兰州市城关区检察院一位手指不停转笔的美女检察官竟然轻蔑地笑了。

[雨夜漫步大祭司 @Fides_Ascensio]

这场伊朗战争，将在历史上被记录为一个特殊的案例：一个小国，用高杠杆操纵了一个超级大国，达到了人类历史上前所未见的高点。

以色列操纵美国的工具，并不是秘密：国会游说、媒体影响力、情报共享、历史道义叙事，甚至有阴谋论者说爱泼斯坦案卷里掌握了美国当权者性犯罪的铁证，也早就是以色列的抓手。这些工具以色列用了几十年，早已炉火纯青。

这次伊朗战争，是这套工具的最高强度运用：

以色列向特朗普保证「战争会很快结束，政权更迭的可能性很高」——结果战争打到第五周，伊朗政权仍然存在，霍尔木兹仍然关闭，美国油价上涨了50%以上。

以色列的地面部队没有直接参与行动，但美国的海军陆战队、航母战斗群、两栖部队、弹药消耗，全部在线。

以色列在每个「停火窗口即将关闭」的节点，单方面加速打击伊朗和黎巴嫩目标，制造新的既成事实，把美国锁定在战场上。

结果是：美国消耗了超过180亿美元军费、13条人命、大量精密弹药，联盟关系受损，油价高企，民调支持率创第二任期新低。

而以色列获得了它想要的战略成果，成本由美国承担。

美国副总统万斯对以色列的愤怒早已不是秘密——［内塔尼亚胡向特朗普总统提供虚假信息、过度推销对伊朗发动战争］这句话，是美国政府内部对以色列操纵的第一次公开控诉，但绝不会是最后一次。

为什么洒家判定美国的反噬不可避免？

这是因为，超级大国的权威建立在「没有人能把我当傻子用」这个基础上。一旦这个基础被动摇，权威本身开始瓦解。

美国历史上，对「被利用」的容忍度极低，反应极其激烈——无论对手是敌人还是盟友。

1956年苏伊士运河危机，英法以三国联手攻打埃及，没有事先通知艾森豪威尔。

对此，美国的回应是：公开要求三国撤军，威胁切断英国的美元信贷，在联合国与苏联站在同一边。英国从此永远知道了自己在美英关系里的真实位置。

以色列这次的操纵规模和代价，远超1956年的英国。

反噬的形式不会是戏剧性的断交或武器禁运——那太显眼，而且有国内政治成本。

洒家认为，随着美国选民的迭代，对以色列的反制和反噬会更隐蔽，也更持久：军售条件的悄然收紧，情报共享范围的悄然收窄，在下一次以色列需要美国公开支持时的悄然沉默。

最重要的即期信号，将是在美伊谈判最终框架里，「以色列的安全需求」被美国放在美国认为合适的位置，而不是以色列希望的位置。

「小国高杠杆操纵大国」这个游戏，在美国进入帝国求生模式之后，基本规则发生了质变。

在帝国求生模式下，美国的决策优先考虑不再是「什么对美以联盟关系更有利」，而是「什么对美国全球地位的生存最有利」。

[Ashley Ha @ashleybchae]

good claude..😇