MotleyCow.eth

[david friedberg @friedberg]

it is vitally important for america that mamdani get elected mayor of NYC. he can help maximally and swiftly tax the rich, stand up govt-run grocery stores, eliminate the police force, freeze rents, and make public transportation free..

it’s unlikely that taxing the rich will cause them to move to other cities (collapsing nyc tax revenue), or that city-run grocery stores will fail to increase fresh vegetable consumption in the inner city, or that elimination of the NYPD will cause a rise in crime and decline in quality of life, or that freezing rents will drive landlords to dump properties (collapsing prices and property tax revenue), or that free public transportation will result in union-led kleptocracy. no way. i’m sure this time socialism will be different…

if Americans don’t want to learn the lessons of socialism’s failures elsewhere, we should aim to learn them here as quickly as possible.

let’s make sure one or two cities and states fall apart fast so the rest don’t have to.. elect mamdani!

after accruing $2 trillion in student loan debt, that they will never be able to pay down, it’s no surprise “the college educated in nyc are supporting mamdani 61-39”. the current system has failed them.

but the truth is, more government may not be the answer when too much government (indiscriminate federal student loans regardless of cost or quality of degree or institution) may have gotten them to this moment.

a gentle reminder, though, that an articulate ignoramus isn’t more correct than his less charismatic/authentic political rival. facts, data, truth still stand above theory, innuendo, and bullshit. socialism won’t work. if we have to re-learn that lesson the hard way, let’s do it fast and elect mamdani.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@FreightBrkrGuy @AutismCapital Thanks for that useful insight. Very relevant feedback on the evidence of the COVID vaccine.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@iamnot_elon Stick to cars and rockets. Amazon tried and failed on smartphones.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@xandriteme @ntbrown01 @benjooste1 @wholemars Maybe not the best time to be reading phone notifications while driving?

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@JosephJacks_ @harari_yuval Incredibly bad take. I assume this is a troll post

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@ManleyPeg @deanbphillips Are you not concerned with his clearly declining mental ability? These videos are quite honestly shocking.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@TwittaChicca @elonmusk @Mar50cC5O @4n4lisis Source? Examples? Sounds like bs.

[Evan Van Ness @evan_van_ness]

Lido keeps @dannyryan up at night

If we let Lido breach 33% of ETH stake, then he says the Ethereum immune system is BROKEN

It's time to defend our ETH

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@LT_Rickard @nychange @Citibank These are general office workers from the most liberal part of the world. The people that would typically donate to these causes.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@nychange @StopMoneyPipe @pop4climate @ClimateDefiance @ClimateDEF @ClimateFamsNYC This is really gross. This is just an average office worker trying to go to work.

[⟠ @ryanberckmans]

imo, the realistic worst-case scenario for Lido's uncapped dominance isn't network disruption.

It's that Ethereum develops a reputation among corporations and governments as having been "captured" or "not actually that decentralized relative to other chains".

If this were to happen, it may affect the order of magnitude of our growth rate and, therefore, Ethereum's benefit to humanity and the number of zeroes on the long-term ETH valuation.

Ethereum is a very low-tps chain with *by far* the most secure blockspace.

This reputation is vital to the future of the L1 and L2 ecosystem.

Our projected ETH valuation is predicated on a government being significantly better off anchoring eg. its sovereign bond system on Ethereum's low-data, high-cost chain and then bridging it to many L2s/L3s vs. anchoring it on a higher-tps chain with significantly riskier and worse long-term property rights.

Ethereum is on track to grow into the global settlement layer. But, this success is path-dependent on our reputation with corporations and governments.

Given this path-dependence, Lido uniquely threatens our reputation, and that's the disanalogy in eg. a comparison with Google's search monopoly.

Google does not "threaten" the internet the way that Lido threatens to potentially make Ethereum's outcome orders of magnitude smaller.

Lido's uncapped dominance is currently the only known material risk of, in ten to fifteen years, Ethereum becoming worth, say, only $1.2 to $3 trillion instead of $12 to $30 trillion.

That's why we shouldn't tolerate Lido's uncapped dominance: it's literally the only serious and durable risk standing between us and global ubiquity.

Our mission of becoming a level playing field for all of humanity is worth the social friction of hassling Lido to target a 22% market share via a floating protocol fee.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@MonetSupply @evan_van_ness Following that logic all monopolies are good. It is the competitors fault…

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@historyinmemes Hamburgers?

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@ErikVoorhees @JoeBiden This is just incentivizing good behavior. It would reduce profit for airlines that cannot comply. Already similar rules in place in Europe which are very common sense.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The gov’t has about 48 hours to fix a-soon-to-be-irreversible mistake. By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is — an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank. Absent @jpmorgan @citi or @BankofAmerica acquiring SVB before the open on Monday, a prospect I believe to be unlikely, or the gov’t guaranteeing all of SVB’s deposits, the giant sucking sound you will hear will be the withdrawal of substantially all uninsured deposits from all but the ‘systemically important banks’ (SIBs). These funds will be transferred to the SIBs, US Treasury (UST) money market funds and short-term UST. There is already pressure to transfer cash to short-term UST and UST money market accounts due to the substantially higher yields available on risk-free UST vs. bank deposits. These withdrawals will drain liquidity from community, regional and other banks and begin the destruction of these important institutions. The increased demand for short-term UST will drive short rates lower complicating the @federalreserve’s efforts to raise rates to slow the economy. Already thousands of the fastest growing, most innovative venture-backed companies in the U.S. will begin to fail to make payroll next week. Had the gov’t stepped in on Friday to guarantee SVB’s deposits (in exchange for penny warrants which would have wiped out the substantial majority of its equity value) this could have been avoided and SVB’s 40-year franchise value could have been preserved and transferred to a new owner in exchange for an equity injection. We would have been open to participating. This approach would have minimized the risk of any gov’t losses, and created the potential for substantial profits from the rescue. Instead, I think it is now unlikely any buyer will emerge to acquire the failed bank. The gov’t’s approach has guaranteed that more risk will be concentrated in the SIBs at the expense of other banks, which itself creates more systemic risk. For those who make the case that depositors be damned as it would create moral hazard to save them, consider the feasibility of a world where each depositor must do their own credit assessment of the bank they choose to bank with. I am a pretty sophisticated financial analyst and I find most banks to be a black box despite the 1,000s of pages of @SECGov filings available on each bank. SVB’s senior management made a basic mistake. They invested short-term deposits in longer-term, fixed-rate assets. Thereafter short-term rates went up and a bank run ensued. Senior management screwed up and they should lose their jobs. The @FDICgov and OCC also screwed up. It is their job to monitor our banking system for risk and SVB should have been high on their watch list with more than $200B of assets and $170B of deposits from business borrowers in effectively the same industry. The FDIC’s and OCC’s failure to do their jobs should not be allowed to cause the destruction of 1,000s of our nation’s highest potential and highest growth businesses (and the resulting losses of 10s of 1,000s of jobs for some of our most talented younger generation) while also permanently impairing our community and regional banks’ access to low-cost deposits. This administration is particularly opposed to concentrations of power. Ironically, its approach to SVB’s failure guarantees duopolistic banking risk concentration in a handful of SIBs. My back-of-the envelope review of SVB’s balance sheet suggests that even in a liquidation, depositors should eventually get back about 98% of their deposits, but eventually is too long when you have payroll to meet next week. So even without assigning any franchise value to SVB, the cost of a gov’t guarantee of SVB deposits would be minimal. On the other hand, the unintended consequences of the gov’t’s failure to guarantee SVB deposits are vast and profound and need to be considered and addressed before Monday. Otherwise, watch out below.

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@rdohnethook @NotlouisCk Just getting one of the military jets in the air costs $50k

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@DabbleWithThis You’re right. I was in html view. Thanks!

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@DabbleWithThis The spreadsheet seems to be locked. Can’t see the formulas or make a copy

[MotleyCow.eth @MotleyCowEth]

@DabbleWithThis @Rocket_Pool Can you share the spreadsheet? Would like to be able to model 16eth mini pools with higher than 15% fee