Market War Dog 🇪🇺🦅🇦🇹

Law & Political Science | Active trader across equities, commodities and rates

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Congrats to the dyslexics who bought $SPCE instead of $SPCX 🤣🤣🤣

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

The two largest IPOs by American companies happened near major market cycle peaks.

1. Visa IPO
Date: March 2008
Amount raised: ~$17.9 billion
What followed: Global Financial Crisis panic intensified later in 2008.

2. AT&T Wireless IPO
Date: April 2000
Amount raised: ~$10.6 billion
What followed: Dotcom / telecom bubble collapse.

History shows the biggest listings usually happen when market liquidity and public confidence are near extreme levels.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Citadel Securities just put institutional weight behind what the AI bulls won't say out loud.

In a new macro note titled "Tokenomics," Citadel makes the argument plainly: even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring discipline of cost curves, capacity limits, and marginal returns.

The evidence is piling up:
– Amazon removed its token usage leaderboard
– Microsoft cancelled Claude Code subscriptions
– Multiple companies reporting unexpectedly massive token bills

Their conclusion is the part that matters.

Adoption is no longer about what AI can do in principle. It's becoming about the price and scarcity of the inputs needed to run it at scale. Compute. Power. Cooling. Memory bandwidth. Inference budgets. All real, all binding constraints.

And here's the kicker from the chart.

The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, a benchmark for how much the market is actually spending on AI tokens, has started rolling over. Citadel reads it as a shift toward cheaper models. Companies substituting away from expensive frontier AI toward "good enough" alternatives.

That's economics 101 doing what it always does. When the price of something rises, people use less of it, or find a cheaper version.

Citadel sees a bifurcation forming. Frontier AI concentrated among a few firms with the balance sheets to absorb the cost. Everyone else quietly downgrading to simpler, cheaper models.

This is the part of every technology revolution the early narrative ignores.

The technology being real was never the question.

The question was always whether the economics could carry the valuations.

When one of the most sophisticated trading firms on earth starts writing about AI in the language of cost curves and rationing instead of limitless demand, the conversation has quietly changed.

The hype was about what AI could do.

The reckoning is about what it costs.

[GlobalData.TSLombard @TS_Lombard]

Central Banks are unlikely to cut rates below neutral unless confronted with a recession. This would severely hamper the ability of bonds to rally in a generic risk-off environment @Daniel_VonAhlen

[Market War Dog 🇪🇺🦅🇦🇹 @MrCapital12]

@Conflict_Radar Thx for the coverage

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

Exit liquidity leaving crypto for the SpaceX IPO

[Yami @YamiPNL]

🚨 BREAKING: LILY PHILLIPS ACCUSES MICHAEL SAYLOR OF STEALING HER IDEA OF FUCKING 100'000 MEN IN A DAY

[Preston Stewart @prestonstew_]

Well that’s gonna be out of commission for a while

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Copper now diverging from gold in a meaningful way.

Yes, AI, industrial demand, and onshoring are part of the story.

But the real driver is a tightening supply-demand imbalance that the market is only beginning to price in.

That said:

Metals rarely stay disconnected for long.

This gap is setting the stage for gold to become the next catch-up trade, in my view.

https://t.co/sJjIAEqwqb

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

$IBM and Google Cloud launched a new Google Cloud Practice to help enterprises deploy AI and modernize hybrid systems.

The practice will use thousands of Google Cloud-certified IBM consultants and engineers, combining IBM Consulting Advantage with Google Cloud’s Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform.

IBM is also building industry-specific AI agents for banking, government, retail, telecom, energy, security, insurance, and life sciences.

IBM says the partnership represents a multi-billion-dollar opportunity for both companies.

[The Maverick of Wall Street @TheMaverickWS]

BREAKING: Trump says he had a "very good phone call" with Hezbollah

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Japan

Japanese Crude Oil Reserves plunge by largest amount in history 📉📉

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

It feels like Bitcoin is now the only (risk) asset that is not in melt up mode

[litquidity @litcapital]

JUST IN: Pope Leo XIV is set to join Anthropic as a key strategic advisor and angel investor, per FT.

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

The AI bubble is primarily an earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. My report this week discusses the metrics investors should monitor to know when this bubble is about to burst.

Clients can read it here:

https://t.co/nPpZ5E1mas

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

$SPX equity risk premium hits lowest level since 2004

[Macro Charts @MacroCharts]

"The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom." — Bob Farrell

Time to shine.

[Market War Dog 🇪🇺🦅🇦🇹 @MrCapital12]

@nullcharts Thx!

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

The SPX/VIX has failed to break above the 460 level a few times this cycle. Every tag of these highs marked the start of a corrective wave.

Could this time be different? The market has been rewarding plenty of risk-on and speculative areas.

If this ratio breaks out, it means implied volatility is continuing to collapse and equities remain in their uptrend.

I'm saying things could get more fun. I know... even more fun than right now... Buckle up
$VIX $SPX