Ricardo Sarraf

intermarket / cycles / trends
all opinions are my own, not investment advice, etc.

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

great chart

[GlobalData.TSLombard @TS_Lombard]

Central Banks are unlikely to cut rates below neutral unless confronted with a recession. This would severely hamper the ability of bonds to rally in a generic risk-off environment @Daniel_VonAhlen

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@capitalflows Thanks

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@SpearfishingCap A genuine compliment. Thanks

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

The major indices keep making new highs, yet the median US stock has gone nowhere for over 4 years.

Line up the current secular bull with the one that began in 1974, and this consolidation comes at a similar shape and place in the cycle as 1987–1992.

Back then, that consolidation set up the launchpad for the final leg higher of the cycle.

If the analog holds, we still have ~5 years left in this secular bull.

History may not repeat, but it often rhymes.

$VALUG

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@damdoom10 thanks man. I try

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

The SPX/VIX has failed to break above the 460 level a few times this cycle. Every tag of these highs marked the start of a corrective wave.

Could this time be different? The market has been rewarding plenty of risk-on and speculative areas.

If this ratio breaks out, it means implied volatility is continuing to collapse and equities remain in their uptrend.

I'm saying things could get more fun. I know... even more fun than right now... Buckle up
$VIX $SPX

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@blondesnmoney Industrials. Easily the most diversified one out of the bunch…

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

Today closed at the widest spread between US $VIX and EM $VXEEM implied vol in over a decade.

EM vol is spiking, US vol is unwinding.

Under the surface, $EEM is 47% Taiwan and South Korea... nearly half the index is mid-parabolic advance. Perhaps that's the driver?

Would love to see @CBOE publish VXEWY in the future... like they do for Brazil $VXEWZ.

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@RealDealRetail I'm still apprehensive there... very weak. It may, but still needs to prove itself

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

Software $IGV just posted its best month since October 2001.

May was a good time to flip the book.

Undoubtedly there will still be many losers in the space; zombified companies that stay alive while their stocks go nowhere and their business models slowly erode.

But the winners on the other side of this move are going to be massive.

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@realwallyg not yet

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@SubtleInduction turds indeed

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@HiVolBreakouts not that smart either. and yeah that is pretty interesting.

I believe I saw that retail is currently trading the highest amount of options volume... perhaps thats skewing the data? idk. one to think about for sure

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@SirRX_0 @Santiag61888533 People don’t read. Even less if you start off with a disclaimer.

[The Chart Report @TheChartReport]

Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @nullcharts

Participation is expanding, as the median stock just pushed to its highest level since January 2022.

Get the full breakdown in today's report plus more great charts. ⬇️

https://t.co/1M1WV4NaLC

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

The Median Stock closed the session at it's highest level since January of 2022.

The Value Line Geometric Index $VALUG is currently 5% away from all-time highs.

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@Reilly22M Thank you, Michael

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@colin_gladman Thanks brother

[Ricardo Sarraf @nullcharts]

@stevenplace $XSW