Previously I thought that Foundayo was DOA but I didn't realize $NVO 25mg oral wgvy was max dose. That could put orfo back in play bc the wl is only somewhat lower and it doesn't have the fasting restrictions. They should undercut on price though, that would be savage. $LLY $VKTX
So why did $NVO choose not to mkt the 50mg oral wgvy dose, which would have been on par w/ 2.4mg sq? Either it's truly a capacity constraint and they will market it once they increase production, or their variable cogs on the pill must be so bad that it wasn't viable. $LLY $VKTX
@prosperousguy Amazon is not going to move into pharma lol. Although I made a previous post arguing that they should partner more closely with Lilly to expand their telehealth platform and give cheaper access.
Best explanations I can find, VK2735 molecule is engineered such that it's protease-resistant. And the scale of manufacturing required for any peptide at such low bioavailability is a challenge at compounder unit economics. Also mfring w SNAC is extremely complex.
$NVO what stops compounders from figuring out a viable oral workaround? Novo is using their own tech, $VKTX has their own solution for oral vk2735 which clearly works so not an intractable problem. Would be great if some pharmacology genius could explain.
I asked Gemini what people on social media were saying about wegovy pill, particularly in terms of satisfaction with efficacy and whether they planned to titrate to higher doses (1.5 and 4.5mg are 150/m, then jump to 300/mo which is same px as Tirzepatide indctn dose) $NVO
@dartmonkeytrdg Ofc that's the limitation of anecdotal social media research. Im curious though how Novo is getting that 80% figure particularly wrt those switching from compounded. Also they will phrase these things in the most favorable way as they're desperate to show growth in GLP-1 mkt
@RealSimpleAriel I think you're making an error in your data interpretation. For example on $AXTI your sheet shows 1.1B. That's the current 20d DV, but if you look back over the past year it has recently spiked. I added a marker at the 100M level plus a 250d sma of the 20d sma
@AretardInvestor Crowdstrike has a growing business and Novo doesn't. It's not that complicated. Markets try to project what revenue and earnings will be several years out.
@JCanNuSH I just checked again and you're right, 12.4% for the Step-1 2.4mg. I always forget how low it is. Every time I make a spread sheet comparing these and I seem to never save it π
So why did $NVO choose not to mkt the 50mg oral wgvy dose, which would have been on par w/ 2.4mg sq? Either it's truly a capacity constraint and they will market it once they increase production, or their variable cogs on the pill must be so bad that it wasn't viable. $LLY $VKTX