MuddyWatersResearch

Part official account of Muddy Waters, LLC & affiliate Muddy Waters Capital LLC; part personal account of the CEO and Founder of MW.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

"Sportradar: All-In on the Underworld" Be informed and entertained by MW's mini-doc showing the evidence of how $SRAD knowingly powers illegal operators, preys on addicts, and makes lower levels of sport susceptible to corruption.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

@RealHerbHoover @firstadopter @profplum99 In this article, he discusses which of his ETF-price relationship hypotheses aren’t supported by the recent data.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

@OwenGilmore9 @thedailybeast I’m old enough to remember Pete Wilson! How’s that for different times?

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

OMFG - this is fantastic! California, you're probably not ready to change, but here's hoping! (As a former Californian, I can say this ad speaks the truth - through satire obviously.)

[Steve Hilton @SteveHiltonx]

Here it is – our first ad from the people who created those fantastic videos for Spencer Pratt.

The People vs The Machine:

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

@OwenGilmore9 @thedailybeast Not sure many of the people will even give him a chance. Hope I’m wrong.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

@OwenGilmore9 @thedailybeast When I lived in CA, I felt voters were far more focused on national politics than state & local. Given the antipathy toward Trump & national Republicans, I don’t think there’s much of a chance for a Republican win at the state level. Not yet anyway.

[Julia La Roche @JuliaLaRoche]

Chris Irons @QTRResearch is back on the pod today! 🔥

https://t.co/cbzf8RgeOX

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

@RHouseResearch Yeah, but priority #1 is figuring out how to not be long when that happens!

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

Great question from @RHouseResearch bc I think a lot of people misunderstand the vibe in our business. Days 1 - no matter how seemingly successful - are never celebratory. We hate when we have a bad Day 1. But even when we have a great Day 1, we know the war has just begun. The joyous days are the ones on which we're proven right - the auditor resignations, restatements, officer / director resignations, etc. Those are pretty few and far between. So most of our good days in short activism are emotionally flat. Then a lot of days of angst when things move against us. We need a lot of discipline to not get rattled by the haters. And the fist pumping days aren't too frequent. Tough business. So from an emotional perspective, cranking out sick returns on stocks that I previously wouldn't have touched with a 10-foot pole really does beat activist short selling.

[Rittenhouse Research @RHouseResearch]

@muddywatersre Surely making money on an activist short "feels" a lot better than your momentum algo printing... right?

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

There are some people who love to get into how the world's sausage is made (self included) - short selling very much fulfills this urge. And if you think that a good portion of society's winners are full of shit and undeserving of their success, you'll probably be drawn to short selling. The problem is that you do all your work, take all your risk, and the world still works the way that it always has.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

@carrieofaustin @data_atx There were 6 FTEs as of 24-25. Why the 133% increase to 14 in 26-27? Seemingly this growth rate outpaces those of Austin’s population, the TX budget, and the federal budget.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

Interesting reaction to some of my comments👇

[Activ8Insights @Activ8Insights]

Probably one of my favorite Carson Block interviews. Long conversation with @MebFaber, and I am sure we will be back for more of it. The first thing that jumped out was the psychology.

Block relayed a line Jim Chanos gave him years ago, that depression and mental illness run higher among short sellers than among other professional investors. Block thinks the work draws a certain kind of person and then deepens it.

We have written at length on the psychology of short selling, anchoring, loss aversion, conviction under pressure. What we did not get to was the toll on the people doing the work, and looking at the literature, nobody has. The research asks how depression affects trading. It has not asked the reverse.

Short sellers surface fraud that auditors and regulators miss, usually with the whole market and the target company pointed at them. Chanos has described the short side as constant negative reinforcement, being told every morning that part of your book is wrong. Block said he concluded his own filter had gotten too negative and recalibrated. @muddywatersre now runs momentum and long junior mining next to the short book, and he was direct about why.

Def worth a listen if you have not already.

[Activ8Insights @Activ8Insights]

Probably one of my favorite Carson Block interviews. Long conversation with @MebFaber, and I am sure we will be back for more of it. The first thing that jumped out was the psychology.

Block relayed a line Jim Chanos gave him years ago, that depression and mental illness run higher among short sellers than among other professional investors. Block thinks the work draws a certain kind of person and then deepens it.

We have written at length on the psychology of short selling, anchoring, loss aversion, conviction under pressure. What we did not get to was the toll on the people doing the work, and looking at the literature, nobody has. The research asks how depression affects trading. It has not asked the reverse.

Short sellers surface fraud that auditors and regulators miss, usually with the whole market and the target company pointed at them. Chanos has described the short side as constant negative reinforcement, being told every morning that part of your book is wrong. Block said he concluded his own filter had gotten too negative and recalibrated. @muddywatersre now runs momentum and long junior mining next to the short book, and he was direct about why.

Def worth a listen if you have not already.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

"Cynics always sound smarter. Optimists live in bigger houses." - @muddywatersre
https://t.co/tEsBL8URM6

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

𝗠𝘂𝗱𝗱𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀' 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱:

"These guys were evil geniuses." - @muddywatersre

The COO tipped London hedge funds before the FT exposé landed.

Germany then suspended short selling to protect one stock (a first).

Turns out he'd been a GRU asset, working with Russia.

https://t.co/oknfWbQb2k

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

I think we usually get a case dismissed for ~$500K, usually spread over 18+ months. I accepted long ago that our business model had to be profitable enough that the bullshit suits fall into the "cost of doing business category". That's the irony of the critics who say "If you believe in exposing the truth, then do it without shorting stock." In the REAL world though, people who open their mouths get smacked with lawfare. If you can't make enough to easily cover your legal and feel like your take home justifies the bullshit, then it's a bad personal decision to speak out.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

👇

[Codfish Johnny @CodfishJohnny]

Promised follow up so here it is. While most know, if you don't, this suit is horseshit. It's for conspiracy to commit libel based entirely on Muddy Waters balance sheet provided to @JehoshaphatRsch in connection with the report on Techtronics that got Jehoshaphat sued.

[MuddyWatersResearch @muddywatersre]

Just a fun note on the below. Many people believe that $HD has the exclusive right to sell Ryobi tools. In the other Techtronic lawsuit @quinnemanuel is repping against a short seller (@JehoshaphatRsch), it came out that $669.hk has the right to sell Ryobi DTC at lower prices.

[Reuters Legal @ReutersLegal]

Muddy Waters Capital has asked a federal judge in Texas to disqualify law firm Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan from a lawsuit claiming the short seller participated in a scheme to publish false reports about power tool maker Techtronic Industries. https://t.co/IxsUZ0oyPX

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

𝗠𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 @muddywatersre, 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝗳𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴.

Carson & I cover:

• His AI thesis: ~15% of US knowledge workers displaced within 3 years, and what that does to 401(k) flows and the biggest index names
• Why he may be the last short seller left in the game
• Shorting SoFi and the rise of rabid retail mobs
• Wirecard, the GRU asset, and the strangest fraud in modern markets
• Credit spreads at record tights, and the second and third order trades he's positioning for
• Why China is still "uninvestable"

[Sachiv @SachivM99]

“The hammer only sees nails” @MebFaber @muddywatersre had a great podcast recently…