Duncan Green

There’s a lot of self-serving spin emanating from the UK government about how virtuous it is re fiscal consolidation. Here are the facts. Labour inherited an OBR budget deficit forecast of £87bn (3.1% GDP) for FY2024/25. After R Reeves’ 1st disastrous budget the actual deficit was £153bn (5.2%). Massive jump. Labour inherited OBR budget deficit of £77bn (2.7%) for FY2025/26. After RR’s disastrous 2nd budget that turned out to be £133bn (4.3%). So in its first two years it added over £120bn to borrowing/deficit (despite huge increase in taxes). The OBR forecast it inherited for this FY2026/27 was £69bn (2.3%). It is now forecast to be £116bn (3.3%). That looks like an underestimate. More likely to be closer to £130bn again. Inherited budget forecast for 2027/28: £51bn (1.6%). Latest forecast: £97bn (2.9%). Inherited budget forecast for 2028/29: £39bn (1.2%). Latest forecast: £86bn (2.5%). Far from fiscal consolidation Labour is forecast to borrow an incredible £260bn more over the 5 years from 2024/25 than the forecasts it inherited. Despite the tax rises. Which will continue. Alone among G7 countries the IMF projects the UK tax burden to rise by 3.7% of GDP 2025-31. The only other country with a rising tax burden is France (0.8%). Italy is static. Rest of G7 have falling tax burden. And let’s not forget Labour’s so-called ‘fiscal consolidation’ is all backloaded to end-decade. Unlikely to happen. So taxes will have to rise by even more.

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

5 days ago

Seems about the right level of discourse for the Palestinian supporters. Taught to hate from the cradle and with a level of perversion highlighted on Oct 7th (and through the centuries), few grow out of their infantilism.

Nicole Lampert

@nicolelampert

5 days ago

Journo friend of friend was at this event with philosopher Slavoj Zizek in conversation with @MatthewdAncona He says that at one point Zizek "started talking without irony about how Israelis have taught dogs to recognise Palestinian anuses so that they can rape them." D'Ancona apparently responded with "polite surprise" and "all the trendy edgy lefties giggled nervously and on we trundled." How did we get to this Chinese whispers place of outright quite obviously INSANE lies being openly spread?

nicolelampert's tweet photo. Journo friend of friend was at this event with philosopher Slavoj Zizek in conversation with @MatthewdAncona

He says that at one point Zizek "started talking without irony about how Israelis have taught dogs to recognise Palestinian anuses so that they can rape them."

D'Ancona apparently responded with "polite surprise" and "all the trendy edgy lefties giggled nervously and on we trundled."

How did we get to this Chinese whispers place of outright quite obviously INSANE lies being openly spread?

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

5 days ago

If he obeyed the Sharia? And do you think the Poles were unwise? Or do you think they should import more bombers and rapists? We know not all called Mohammed are evil but if only 33% are, that's too many for a country which wants to stay civilised.

Daniel Foubert 🇵🇱🇱🇹

@d_foubert

6 days ago

Mohammed arrived in Warsaw. With a plastic bag, an engineering degree from the University of Al-Couscous, and the naïve belief that if he didn't kill anyone right off the bat and obeyed the Shariah, everything would be fine. Everything was not fine. He started looking for a job. The first recruiter liked his CV until she saw his full name. The second asked whether clients would be “comfortable” with him. The third told him the company had found someone else. The vacancy was reposted the next morning. After forty applications, Mohammed finally got an interview. The receptionist looked at him. — You're Mohammed? — Yes. She disappeared. Five minutes later somebody came back to explain that the position had just been filled. Mohammed began looking for an apartment. This was worse. “No foreigners.” “No Muslims.” “Polish tenants only.” One landlord agreed to meet him, looked at his face and suddenly remembered that his cousin needed the apartment. Another demanded six months' rent in advance. A third simply closed the door. Mohammed tried a hotel. Full. He checked online. Twelve rooms available. He began to suspect Poland was developing accommodation shortages specifically around him. Then came the administration. He needed one document to obtain another document. To obtain the first document, he needed proof of address. To obtain proof of address, he needed an apartment. To rent the apartment, the landlord wanted the second document. Mohammed returned to the office. — But this is impossible. The clerk shrugged. — Następny. Next. Outside, somebody called him a terrorist. On the bus, an old man told him to go home. At the supermarket, security followed him through four aisles. At a restaurant, somebody asked whether he was going to blow the place up. At night, three drunk men followed him for two streets shouting at him. The following morning somebody had written WON ("FUCK OFF") on the door of the room he was temporarily renting. He went to the police. The officer asked whether anyone had actually attacked him. — Not this time. The officer looked relieved. Mohammed was not. By the third month he had no permanent job, no permanent accommodation, an impressive collection of administrative papers and a completely new habit of looking behind himself whenever he heard footsteps. Then his landlord called. A neighbour had complained. About what? Mohammed. Apparently his existence had become a noise disturbance. That evening he sat on his bed surrounded by documents, rejection emails and his plastic bag. Somebody shouted something under his window. Mohammed didn't even check what. He opened his Ryanair app. Warsaw → Al-Couscous. One way. The next morning he went to Modlin Airport three hours early. He passed security. He reached the gate. He sat down. For the first time in months, nobody wanted a document from him, nobody refused to rent him anything, nobody followed him through a shop and nobody asked him when he was going home. The boarding announcement began. Mohammed almost ran onto the plane. Poland hadn't deported him. It hadn't needed to. Mohammed had become so terrified of Poland that he SELF-DEPORTED.

d_foubert's tweet photo. Mohammed arrived in Warsaw.

With a plastic bag, an engineering degree from the University of Al-Couscous, and the naïve belief that if he didn't kill anyone right off the bat and obeyed the Shariah, everything would be fine.

Everything was not fine.

He started looking for a job.

The first recruiter liked his CV until she saw his full name.

The second asked whether clients would be “comfortable” with him.

The third told him the company had found someone else. The vacancy was reposted the next morning.

After forty applications, Mohammed finally got an interview.

The receptionist looked at him.

— You're Mohammed?
— Yes.

She disappeared.

Five minutes later somebody came back to explain that the position had just been filled.

Mohammed began looking for an apartment.

This was worse.
“No foreigners.”
“No Muslims.”
“Polish tenants only.”

One landlord agreed to meet him, looked at his face and suddenly remembered that his cousin needed the apartment.

Another demanded six months' rent in advance.
A third simply closed the door.

Mohammed tried a hotel.
Full.

He checked online.
Twelve rooms available.

He began to suspect Poland was developing accommodation shortages specifically around him.

Then came the administration.

He needed one document to obtain another document.
To obtain the first document, he needed proof of address.
To obtain proof of address, he needed an apartment.
To rent the apartment, the landlord wanted the second document.

Mohammed returned to the office.
— But this is impossible.

The clerk shrugged.
— Następny.
Next.

Outside, somebody called him a terrorist.
On the bus, an old man told him to go home.
At the supermarket, security followed him through four aisles.
At a restaurant, somebody asked whether he was going to blow the place up.
At night, three drunk men followed him for two streets shouting at him.

The following morning somebody had written WON ("FUCK OFF") on the door of the room he was temporarily renting.

He went to the police.

The officer asked whether anyone had actually attacked him.

— Not this time.

The officer looked relieved.
Mohammed was not.

By the third month he had no permanent job, no permanent accommodation, an impressive collection of administrative papers and a completely new habit of looking behind himself whenever he heard footsteps.

Then his landlord called.

A neighbour had complained.

About what?

Mohammed.

Apparently his existence had become a noise disturbance.

That evening he sat on his bed surrounded by documents, rejection emails and his plastic bag.

Somebody shouted something under his window.
Mohammed didn't even check what.

He opened his Ryanair app.

Warsaw → Al-Couscous. One way.

The next morning he went to Modlin Airport three hours early.

He passed security.
He reached the gate.
He sat down.

For the first time in months, nobody wanted a document from him, nobody refused to rent him anything, nobody followed him through a shop and nobody asked him when he was going home.

The boarding announcement began.

Mohammed almost ran onto the plane.

Poland hadn't deported him.

It hadn't needed to.

Mohammed had become so terrified of Poland that he SELF-DEPORTED.

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Who to follow

Tony Armstrong

@TheRetroExec

Retired chairman/CEO, entrepreneur & mentor. Father, husband, author, ENTJ. If you think work is not a part of life, I feel sorry for you

ian

@muckshifter631

love my country 🇬🇧 God bless USA 🇺🇲 🇮🇱, Reform UK we can do this 🇬🇧 NO DM INSTANTLY BLOCKED

philshort Esq - Free Briton 🇬🇧

@philshort

Avid realist, prefers logic to naïve idealism. No time for woke agendas. Proud to be British in an Independent Britain. 🇬🇧

MungoWump retweeted

David Shaw

@David90shaw

6 days ago

🚨 EXCLUSIVE: ANGELA RAYNER CAUGHT USING 15 MILLION POUNDS OF PUBLIC CASH TO RIG ELECTIONS!!!! I want every working person in this country to confront the terrifying reality that the state is weaponizing your own wages against your ballot paper. Under the guise of a 15 million pound recovery fund created after the Southport tragedy, Angela Rayner quietly financed a partisan propaganda machine inside local government. Official evidence confirms public funds went straight to the Ella Baker School of Organising, an activist network founded by former operatives from Hope Not Hate. Council staff across Birmingham, Sheffield, and Blackpool were forced through state funded sessions instructing them how to steer working class communities away from Nigel Farage. Local bureaucrats were literally trained on how to distract ordinary residents from small boat arrivals and manipulate the public away from voting for Reform UK. Course registration materials openly declared their core objective was to avert the impending disaster of a democratic right wing government. The political establishment claims there is zero cash to protect military veterans or keep elderly pensioners warm, yet Angela Rayner finds unlimited funds to turn council offices into political re education camps. Labour knows they have permanently lost the trust of ordinary Britons, so they are deploying taxpayer funded psychological operations to rig the ballot box from the inside. Retweet this exclusive investigation immediately to expose Angela Rayner using public money to wage war on British voters. 🇬🇧

David90shaw's tweet photo. 🚨 EXCLUSIVE: ANGELA RAYNER CAUGHT USING 15 MILLION POUNDS OF PUBLIC CASH TO RIG ELECTIONS!!!!

I want every working person in this country to confront the terrifying reality that the state is weaponizing your own wages against your ballot paper.

Under the guise of a 15 million pound recovery fund created after the Southport tragedy, Angela Rayner quietly financed a partisan propaganda machine inside local government.

Official evidence confirms public funds went straight to the Ella Baker School of Organising, an activist network founded by former operatives from Hope Not Hate.

Council staff across Birmingham, Sheffield, and Blackpool were forced through state funded sessions instructing them how to steer working class communities away from Nigel Farage.

Local bureaucrats were literally trained on how to distract ordinary residents from small boat arrivals and manipulate the public away from voting for Reform UK.

Course registration materials openly declared their core objective was to avert the impending disaster of a democratic right wing government.

The political establishment claims there is zero cash to protect military veterans or keep elderly pensioners warm, yet Angela Rayner finds unlimited funds to turn council offices into political re education camps.

Labour knows they have permanently lost the trust of ordinary Britons, so they are deploying taxpayer funded psychological operations to rig the ballot box from the inside.

Retweet this exclusive investigation immediately to expose Angela Rayner using public money to wage war on British voters. 🇬🇧

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

6 days ago

@MorEdge_Insight You seem to be exactly the sort of family every decent country would wish to have. So obviously UK, Ireland, France & Spain are out of the question. Labour wants to deport you; the NHS and rampant immigrants want to kill you, education establishment wants to ostracise you.

Duncan Green @MungoWump

6 days ago

@ThatJohnJones You could add, the majority of parliament, the speaker and most of the judiciary. I defy you to name five honest judges in the Supreme Court at that time. Too hard? One would suffice.

Duncan Green @MungoWump

6 days ago

1. Those in power follow the Peter Principle 2. They pay huge sums to "charities" to lobby themselves for their chosen policies 3. For an MP, having had a job is suspect, in the private sector, virtually unknown 4. "Science" is not real unless prefixed,eg "climate", "social"

Peter Clack

@PeterDClack

7 days ago

It is a full 9°C colder across the world today than the 24°C global average over the past 485 million years (Judd et al., Science 2024). So how could we have been facing an existential global warming threat? Earth is not even remotely facing runaway warming now or in the near future, and reaching the dramatic prediction of a 5.5°C rise by 2100 is virtually impossible. The climate crisis narrative was built upon this predicted warming scenario, which is now widely acknowledged by scientists as implausible. First introduced in 2011 to guide policy, this extreme scenario - known as RCP8.5 (and later SSP5-8.5) - served as the primary engine for terrifying 'business-as-usual' headlines for over a decade. Those apocalyptic projections simply did not occur. Traditional hydrocarbon fuels supply roughly 81% of primary global energy, yet global carbon emissions have structurally flattened. Meanwhile, wind and solar account for only around 6.5% of total primary energy. With the retirement of the extreme 5°C baseline ahead of the 7th Assessment Report (AR7), the ceiling for high-emissions projections has dropped significantly, with proposed high-end baselines downgraded toward a maximum around 3.3°C. One lesson is that modestly rising CO₂ concentrations do not automatically trigger runaway temperatures. We have seen this in worldwide greening identified by NASA satellites. Carbon dioxide remains a trace atmospheric gas - around 420 parts per million - making it among the lowest concentrations in geological history, while the atmosphere is over 99% nitrogen, oxygen, and argon, with water vapor exceeding CO₂ many times over. This deceptive original scenario - promoted heavily through the United Nations - became the primary justification for Net Zero. It forced the premature decline of reliable energy systems across Western nations, leading to widespread economic strain and a massive transfer of industrial capacity to Beijing. China now manufactures the vast majority of the world's wind turbines, solar panels, and critical battery components, powered largely by the world's largest fleet of coal-fired power stations. China produces over half the world's steel and accounts for nearly a third of all human-caused CO₂ emissions. The old fear narrative - 'We are on track for a 5°C apocalypse if we don't immediately upend the global economy' - is finally dead.

PeterDClack's tweet photo. It is a full 9°C colder across the world today than the 24°C global average over the past 485 million years (Judd et al., Science 2024).

So how could we have been facing an existential global warming threat? Earth is not even remotely facing runaway warming now or in the near future, and reaching the dramatic prediction of a 5.5°C rise by 2100 is virtually impossible.

The climate crisis narrative was built upon this predicted warming scenario, which is now widely acknowledged by scientists as implausible. First introduced in 2011 to guide policy, this extreme scenario - known as RCP8.5 (and later SSP5-8.5) - served as the primary engine for terrifying 'business-as-usual' headlines for over a decade.

Those apocalyptic projections simply did not occur.

Traditional hydrocarbon fuels supply roughly 81% of primary global energy, yet global carbon emissions have structurally flattened. Meanwhile, wind and solar account for only around 6.5% of total primary energy.

With the retirement of the extreme 5°C baseline ahead of the 7th Assessment Report (AR7), the ceiling for high-emissions projections has dropped significantly, with proposed high-end baselines downgraded toward a maximum around 3.3°C.

One lesson is that modestly rising CO₂ concentrations do not automatically trigger runaway temperatures. We have seen this in worldwide greening identified by NASA satellites.

Carbon dioxide remains a trace atmospheric gas - around 420 parts per million - making it among the lowest concentrations in geological history, while the atmosphere is over 99% nitrogen, oxygen, and argon, with water vapor exceeding CO₂ many times over.

This deceptive original scenario - promoted heavily through the United Nations - became the primary justification for Net Zero. It forced the premature decline of reliable energy systems across Western nations, leading to widespread economic strain and a massive transfer of industrial capacity to Beijing.

China now manufactures the vast majority of the world's wind turbines, solar panels, and critical battery components, powered largely by the world's largest fleet of coal-fired power stations. China produces over half the world's steel and accounts for nearly a third of all human-caused CO₂ emissions.

The old fear narrative - 'We are on track for a 5°C apocalypse if we don't immediately upend the global economy' - is finally dead.

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MungoWump retweeted

David Collier

@mishtal

7 days ago

People say I never criticise the Israeli government. Well, here is a criticism. Channel 4’s @SecKermani was temporarily denied entry last night - but the Israelis eventually let him in. They should not have changed their minds. RT is restricted in the UK. Press TV lost its UK broadcasting licence. In the US, Kremlin-supported media organisations face sanctions. Yet when Israel restricts people it considers hostile, suddenly it is held to a different standard. Israel is fighting on several fronts. During the World Wars, both Britain and the United States heavily censored reporting. The freedoms those countries curtailed should be remembered when judging Israel’s wartime decisions. Yet hostile outlets continue to whine about not being given access to Gaza. Why on earth should Israel provide ex-Al-Jazeera staffers (as many Arabic speaking Western journalists are these days) with entry to Gaza - so they can get closer to the Hamas propaganda they are so eager to distribute? And then there are outlets such as @Channel4News @bbcnews @guardian @cnn @nytimes - who all spread vicious libels against Israel - strengthening terrorist motivations, increasing antisemitism worldwide - and putting Jews everywhere in danger. Would some of the murdered Jews in Australia, the UK, and U.S., be alive today if these Western media outlets had pushed back against the libels and terrorist propaganda - rather than helping them to spread? Which brings me back to Secunder Kermani. His timeline reeks of hostile anti-Israel activism. From his output he may as well be wearing 'boycott Israel' stickers. If either the UK or U.S. were in Israel's position - outlets such as @Channel4News would not be given the freedom to enter the country in order to help the enemy. Israel should take the damage caused by hostile reporting more seriously. There is no good faith involved. They enter Israel explicitly to do it harm. Israel's problem is not a lack of freedom. It is that Israel has always been at some level of conflict, so has come to normalise internal life and maintain freedoms despite the ongoing conflicts. Yet some parts of western media have become anti-Western, antisemitic outlets, promoting a mix of Islamist and hard-left propaganda. In this they have become no better than RT or PRESS TV. And for Israel since October 7, the stakes have changed. Just look around the West and see what is happening on our streets. It is being fuelled in part by the lies which hostile media tell. Which is why I think they were wrong to let him back in. He - and others like him should not be awarded the privilege of walking Israel's streets. So there - never say I do not criticise the Israeli government!

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

They only do 1 day a month, after taking WFH/WFB/holiday/sick leave/time off in lieu of sick leave/union meetings/hard left indoctrination lectures...

Politics UK

@PolitlcsUK

7 days ago

🚨 NEW: Civil servants will vote next week on whether to strike for a 4-day work week on full pay and a 10% pay rise

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

I would guess Burnham wants to give them to the EU in a bid to get closer.

John Lamont MP 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

@John2Win

7 days ago

With winter fast approaching and families worried about rising energy bills, why is the Government not making the most of our own oil and gas resources? Jackdaw could be producing British gas this winter and heating up to 1.4 million homes. Yet the Government continues to delay the decisions on Jackdaw and Rosebank despite their importance to our energy security. It's time for the Prime Minister to make a decision, support skilled jobs across Scotland and the UK, and back the investment in our oil and gas industry. ✍️If you agree, sign the petition to back British oil and gas. Link in the comments👇

John2Win's tweet photo. With winter fast approaching and families worried about rising energy bills, why is the Government not making the most of our own oil and gas resources?

Jackdaw could be producing British gas this winter and heating up to 1.4 million homes. Yet the Government continues to delay the decisions on Jackdaw and Rosebank despite their importance to our energy security.

It's time for the Prime Minister to make a decision, support skilled jobs across Scotland and the UK, and back the investment in our oil and gas industry.

✍️If you agree, sign the petition to back British oil and gas. Link in the comments👇

MungoWump retweeted

Pete North

@FUDdaily

7 days ago

We kicked out hereditary peers to make room for Ghanaians.

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

I note that the Minister for the IRGC was sitting besides Burnham

Pete North

@FUDdaily

7 days ago

"almost certainly" is meaningless coming from Burnham now.

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

Be fair. If it had happened here, in the unlikely event of his prosecution, our judges would probably accept it was his culture and acquit.

Sara Ghorbani

@d_white_rabbit

7 days ago

Arezoo Bameri, 2 years old, was beaten to death by her father on Friday in Iran, Sistan and Balochestan. He was arrested on Sunday after his claim that she was hit in a car accident didn’t match the broken bones and bruising on her body. If convicted, he might serve 3 to 8 years in prison according to Iran’s Islamic penal code or he could pay a little money to Arezoo’s mom and walk free. Because he was her male guardian and could murder her but because he can’t claim “honour killing”, he might serve some prison time. Might. That’s how the Islamic penal code really works. Little girls’ lives aren’t worth much in Islamic jurisprudence.

d_white_rabbit's tweet photo. Arezoo Bameri, 2 years old, was beaten to death by her father on Friday in Iran, Sistan and Balochestan. He was arrested on Sunday after his claim that she was hit in a car accident didn’t match the broken bones and bruising on her body. If convicted, he might serve 3 to 8 years in prison according to Iran’s Islamic penal code or he could pay a little money to Arezoo’s mom and walk free. Because he was her male guardian and could murder her but because he can’t claim “honour killing”, he might serve some prison time. Might. That’s how the Islamic penal code really works. Little girls’ lives aren’t worth much in Islamic jurisprudence.

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

How about One in, One Home Office worker out to wherever the immigrant pretends to come from?

Zia Yusuf

@ZiaYusufUK

7 days ago

One of the first things I will do as Home Secretary is reassign all Home Office staff currently assessing asylum claims. They will be instantly turned into deportation agents. If they rebel, they’ll be sacked for misconduct. No. More. Asylum. Racket. British people first. 🇬🇧

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Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

Well, no Labour MP. Or Labour voter. But Labour MPs don't pay any of these - they put them on "expenses"

Andrew Woolley

@wool86477

8 days ago

@NewStatesman Increase in business rates, minimum wage and national insurance have consequences. Whodathoughtit.

Duncan Green @MungoWump

7 days ago

Another Good News Day.

Vivid.🇮🇱

@VividProwess

7 days ago

Israel has eliminated another Palestinian terrorist who invaded Israel on October 7. Hisham Jamal Muhammad Abu Ghala, a Nukhba platoon commander in Hamas’s military wing, was killed by the IDF in Gaza. Another one bites the dust.

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MungoWump retweeted

Rabbi Poupko

@RabbiPoupko

8 days ago

This is what apartheid looks like. Every single Arab Muslim living inside Israel will be able to exercise their right to vote and just 16 days from now. Not a single Arab Muslim living under the Palestinian authority or Gaza will have a right to vote any time in the future because Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas are denying them that right. Where is the international outrage???