MyanEcon

[Sean Turnell @TurnellSean]

So many terrible indictments of SAC economic ‘policy’ in the latest Workd Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor - but this simple graph is especially eloquent:

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@EllenAGoldstein Thanks very much for sharing. Do you have similar counterfactuals comparing Burma with averages for i) SE Asia, and ii) India + B'desh? Its not clear cut, but I think that overall these countries prob had more similar economic opportunities to Burma than East Asia did

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@leighhmitchell BTW do you know how their funding in 2020 compared to 2018 and 2019? E.g. did COVID cause a spike or fall in funding, or not really make much difference?

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@leighhmitchell The UN is unable/unwilling to reach large parts of the country, and particularly many areas most in need of humanitarian aid. It should also no longer be working with NPT on governance activities. IMO donors are being overly generous to UN in 🇲🇲by only cutting its funding by 40%

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@gdelangre Thanks!

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@MarcielScot @hmarston4 I think that the biggest risk is how 🇨🇳 may respond. If it is to happen, it would need to be accompanied by smart and sustained diplomatic efforts by NUG and 🇺🇸 towards 🇨🇳, to convince them that NUG, PDFs and certain EROs are not overly pro-western and a threat to 🇨🇳 interests.

[Adelina Kamal @AdelinaKamal]

My take:
👉 It's a people's revolution, not a civil war
👉 It's a process of coming together, building a nation in active war
👉 It's unprecedented, a serious political transformation
👉 It's time for int'l community, including ASEAN & UN, to step up

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@Kim_Jolliffe Yeah, the way they wrote it is very unclear - not sure if they are being deliberately sensationalist and misleading, or if its just very sloppy writing and editing

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@GerardoMunck N.b. he is right that 'official' inflation data for Myanmar published by the junta is unreliable, but there's little evidence to suggest it has been as high as he claims

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@GerardoMunck In addition to his excessive focus on inflation as a measure of 'misery', his data for that measure is sometimes dubious. In Sep 22 he claimed inflation in Myanmar was 103% but I have no idea where he got that figure from. https://t.co/B7YYQU73qh

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

#Myanmar's economy is in the tank. Today, I measure inflation in Myanmar at a punishing 103.17%/yr. That's 5.8x the PHONY official rate. As long as the junta rules, Myanmar's economic death spiral with continue to spin.

[Kim Jolliffe @Kim_Jolliffe]

"This guy raped a comrade from the revolutionary forces…"

Local groups documented 20 cases of rape by Myanmar military and 5 by resistance since Jan '22

Actual numbers likely higher.

NUG & other authorities must prosecute.

#whatshappeninginMyanmar

https://t.co/xpphbXwtV3

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@MarcielScot @sstrangio Both good efforts but still no match for MAL, aka "SAC Chairman PM Senior General Thadoe Maha Thray Sithu Thadoe Thiri Thudhamma Min Aung Hlaing" https://t.co/bkX9RKE73J

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@gdelangre @BenedictDunant This is already more detail than I was expecting to be available - thanks very much!

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@BenedictDunant @gdelangre Thanks - interesting article. Are you aware of any examples of attacks on power infrastructure that seriously affected the ability of SAC weapons, munitions and other military supply factories to operate?

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

@FreeBurmaRangrs @Kim_Jolliffe Thanks for sharing. Are you confident that 'The Burma Army is Losing Grip on Economic Corridor in Kutkai Township'? The text below indicates they are making increased effort to get greater control of this corridor, but is their level of control actually declining?

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

Excellent analysis of the accelerating work on the Namtu dam and the murky and harmful political economy behind it: https://t.co/3Deb9KE71g

[MyanEcon @MyanEcon]

Wtf 🤯"We’ve estimated it’s a fireball 100 times the size of the solar system with a brightness about 2tn times the sun’s ... In three years, this event has released about 100 times as much energy as the sun will in its 10bn-year lifetime.” https://t.co/qFizUdajnJ

[Kim Jolliffe @Kim_Jolliffe]

"I understand it is procedurally hard for bureaucrats to find ways to fund a non-recognized government.

But more of those lofty statements and remote federalism workshops that involve no transfer of resources will not cut it."

#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar

https://t.co/tf4rsotA7u