I work in finance in the mining world, and I use this account to think out loud about macro, money, debasement, crypto and capital allocation.
The angle is simple: incentives matter, reality matters, and most market commentary is too soft, too tribal, or too detached from how money actually works.
If you like serious signal without the clown suit, welcome.
Мөнгөний нийлүүлэлт ₮49.4 их наяд хүрч, өмнөх оны мөн үеэс 21.3 хувиар өсөв https://t.co/rwug41XWVc via @BloombergTVM
21.3% M2 growth: Mongolia’s real GDP grows 5-7% so anything above 10 to 12% M2 growth is genuinely inflationary?
That kind of stop-start escalation is usually cleaner for gold than for BTC.
Gold likes fear, policy inconsistency and reserve hedging.
BTC may benefit later from anti-system logic, but first it often trades like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.
If Trump’s Iran pattern is escalate first, blink later, that does not remove risk.
It makes risk more erratic.
Markets still have to price the oil shock before they can price the retreat.
Iran/US tension matters less as a headline than as a macro transmission channel.
If Strait of Hormuz risk pushes oil higher, the effects run through inflation, rates and risk appetite.
Geopolitics is the trigger.
Macro is the mechanism.
1) Kill your ego.
2) Kill your ideology, but not your goals.
3) Build a new framework, but an open and flexible one.
4) Ask questions and deal with people you agree with and disagree with. Approach disagreement as a way to learn.
Hardly anybody does this, in any discipline.
The power to decide what is money—and who can use it—is a special power.
How it is wielded—in the hands of a state, across blocs of competing states, or via a distributed consensus of individuals—will shape the future.
I examine possible futures here:👇
https://t.co/4PaimamhQY
At the #Converge22 conference I watched the #Crypto and #Blockchain industry narrative change from a focus of speculative asset pricing to a discussion of how this industry will fundamentally change the productivity of all global #economies. Listen to this @angietvlau interview!