E

I hate fins, love pinot & steak…addicted to fins, real estate & taxes

[E @NDS0909]

Investment Thoughts
1) Buy high quality (above avg profitability)
2) Buy Dislocation (preferably high quality co's)
3) Buy misunderstood names w/an incentive (ie Spin-offs)
4) Secular growth that has lagged for correctable reasons
5) Small amount buy value/lev bet w/option value

[E @NDS0909]

Other angel re $goog coudl be acquiring someone that wanted cash but more then likely big capex coming and more AI build

I think they will buy a utility / nuclear player

[E @NDS0909]

Why does anyone care what Berkshire does anymore? Buffet ain’t there get a new byline

[E @NDS0909]

Never been in an easier mrkt $Dell 36% post earnings it’s #1 comp?
$GOOG capex watch Neo clouds rip

$slaughterme

[E @NDS0909]

not a bubble yet!!!

[E @NDS0909]

Interesting, there is a idea when banks grow via new hires. that growth is risky & less creditworthy (IE bad growth). Why? When you hire an originator all his good loans are w/his last employer and new loan growth is loans that got denied from his prior employer. That is the loan origintors "low hanging fruit"

[E @NDS0909]

$FSK is a classic example of price leading fundamentals and why being a analyst is so hard

You get all the fundamentals right (including NAV bleed and divvy cut)
Yet stick up 2%

[E @NDS0909]

A dreadful qtr for $FSK - NAV down 10% (down 21% in a year). 55% of book, Dividend cut, NII continues to bleed and KKR steps in. 
With all this bad news, i think it has a little more downside but risk reward is still 2 to 1-Dividend feels more stable but shrinking portfolio to preserve liquidity isnt ideal

[E @NDS0909]

Crazy to think the best way to tell about the credit cycle is to look at 21 VC returns and lag credit issues 12-18 months. Kinda like the good old days of credit card growth math #moreyouknow

[E @NDS0909]

@17catspaw Not China but India is my bet

[E @NDS0909]

d) US will force Israel to be the 3rd/4th biggest weapons exporter and top tech producer outside US
e) A new middle east will be born, Saudi risks being boxed out unless they partner (Pakistan isnt it)
f) Europe is toothless, they need tech, defense or something to be relevant
g) Bias is sky high - look at Russian losses versus Ukraine and compare US to Iran yet people say Iran is winning

[E @NDS0909]

A few points for stocks / macro

a) Unless Iran allies w/the US, its leverage w/the strait of Hormuz will decrease every day (eventually leading pipelines to bypass it)
b) Everything the US has done over the past few months is about China. Restricting oil, restricting influence and showing capabilities that might save Taiwan
c) Japan will be ascendant militarily

[E @NDS0909]

A few Macro / oil observations: TLDR: I think short term US is going to do something in Iran (why would UAE leave Opec now?) Yes they got USD swapline but timing is suspicious.

[E @NDS0909]

2) With the new IPOs coming, what does that mean for certain co's -- "the good, the bad and the ugly"

Example SpaceX and AMT?

[E @NDS0909]

1) so a few thoughts i have:

Data center construction / new development is going to be a lot less then people think --

AI is so unpopular

So who benefits in that scenerio where we have less power than we think? Feels a lot like income inequality if you follow

[E @NDS0909]

Today is great. But what happens if construction for data center slows and /or gets held up? I have some ideas, do you?

[E @NDS0909]

@WestieWinston not bad but $CG is cheaper

[E @NDS0909]

anything more frustrating then a stock down 59% and it still is expensive vs peers $0WL super annoying wanted to buy. $APO screens the cheapest

[E @NDS0909]

2) Insurance skews $APO / $KKR $BX is just so profitable. but $CG is cheap on P/S, Aum to rev, pre tax income to mrkt cap and is underearning on AuM - only issue it never goes up

[E @NDS0909]

1) Took a closer look at PE comps. IMO a levered play on S&P, S&P falls 8% alts down 30-50% seems overdone. I think biggest reason is trumps endowment treatment as schools realize the power of liquidity. $CG is cheapest on every measure and its not close IMO