Thompson Clark

Investor // Business owner // deals, deals, deals

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@valuedontlie Will headline EV/EBITDA at spin be lower considering the “cash” on balance sheet to cover the rail losses?

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

nCino CEO: "We delivered an exceptional first quarter, again outperforming all of our financial guidance."

$NCNO: +13.2% AH

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@chipperPat They own Nordco which makes similar MOW equipment to Harsco. https://t.co/YFTBSaPGW9

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

So how I’m looking at it…

On Q4 call, they mentioned $1.6M/month in aviation lease revenue once the equipment is on lease. That was at $65M deployed into aviation assets I believe.

I assume 50-60% EBITDA margins on this. So, call it $9.6 to 11.5M in annual EBITDA, or a 15%-17.5% ROIC.

They have been good investors and have a good track record of incubating, growing then monetizing businesses.

What do you think?

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

Despite the strong move YTD, I think the setup at $TUSK continues to be compelling.

It’s now well along in the transition to an aircraft leasing company, which is an area that largest shareholder Wexford has some expertise in.

The company has deployed $65M into aircraft since 2025. Assume another $115M of balance sheet cash is put into aircraft over the next 12-24 months ($26M was deployed since quarter end) That gets you to $180M in aircraft. Assume an ROA on these of 15-20%. That gets you to $0.56 to $0.75 per share in EPS.

With stock around $3 here, it’s trading at 4-6 times earnings on this projection. Aircraft leasing companies trade at high single digit PE multiples or higher.

Layer on a conservative amount of leverage, which could be used for more acquisitions or aggressive capital return, and you have a nice setup here.

On the downside, cash and securities plus aircraft is around $4/share. So still cheap on that basis.

Disclosure: Long

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@Schornack Fairfax checks some of these boxes

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@valuedontlie @DOMOCAPITAL At market close, stock is probably at ~3x EBITDA on a PF net cash balance sheet. And that’s after factoring in tax leakage on sale. Still cheap; wild after a one day move like today.

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@valuedontlie 12x EBITDA. Boom!

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@MySubClub3 Insider buy from Chairman / Wexford partner…

https://t.co/oDknEhh0rY

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@WAR527 Appreciate the thoughts and all the info you share. Thanks!

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

As for the divestitures, maybe the release could have been more detailed. But, in their Q3 deck they provide the PF business after their planned divestitures. Again, I'm an energy tourist but the stock is really cheap on headline metrics and compared to peers. I believe insider ownership is the highest among their peer group as well.

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@valuedontlie Disconnected from price…but won’t buy back any stock. Counterpoint: Maybe they’ve been restricted since all these deals have been in motion this year.

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@valuedontlie Or maybe…just maybe… WR Grace, except talc instead of asbestos. Hmmmm

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@bonapartay You can login to your account and download them one by one. But you have to print to pdf. Could probably drop those in OCR tool. We upload them to Ramp for AP/etc and can at least sort of get a handle on our spend. Have to wonder if they make it hard on purpose.

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@helgeson_nick @taobanker And to add, based on this fact pattern, they certainly have no incentive to buy back stock even when trading well below cash/book/etc…

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

$CLF now talking about rare earth mining at their properties in Minnesota and Michigan. And an MOU from an international steel company regarding some sort of transaction. Stock has all the makings of a meme stock...Lourenco!

[Thompson Clark @rtclark]

@WAR527 @TeddyGambino Cheap on FCF yield. I’m a total tourist here…