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There has been a significant pickup in put volume, and also a pick up is bearish sentiment and volatility while at the same time the indexes are getting heavily oversold, which could lead to a strong snap back rally. These are ingredients for a bottom, but also a dangerous spot to play guessing games as accelerated slides can happen during the initial phases of being oversold. With employment data coming in hot, I want to see how the market responds, and not just on one day. Every rally during this correction has been met with distribution in very short order. We got cautious on the stock market on 7/27 and very cautious (moving to mostly cash) on 8/3. Until I see some stabilization and signs of accumulation, I'm maintaining that defensive posture.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
During a correction the indexes have a tendency to rally (sometime quite convincingly) from oversold conditions. Depending on the strength of the market, the snap back will usually retrace 1/3 to 2/3 of the decline. This is normal. But it doesn't mean you are out of the woods.
You don’t want to spread yourself so thin that you’re overly diversified. I call it “di-worsification.” Not only is it hard to keep track of a large number stocks, but your positions are small, which will undermine the potential to get superperformance out of your bigger winners.
You will never achieve superperformance if rely on diversification for protection. It’s better to learn how to concentrate in the best names at the right time and protect yourself with intelligent stop-loss placement. The goal is exposure to big upside while capping the downside.
Market updated. Change from uptrend to market in correction as yesterday SET50 mark new low and Today SET mark new low as well as SET 50 new low too. Pre low SET 1306.67 today 1303.25/ SET50 low 861.47 today 844.39(wait for first attempt rally and follow through before Buy again
Update: Index has corrected and move below 10 day EMA but still not make new low below 1306. If index turn with strong volume we we will move stop from 1306 up to that higher low. Wait and see.
cansliM update: after we get follow through day on July 2 2020 in both SET & SET50. July 3, index drop but not more than 0.2% with higher Volume. July 7 index + a bit. July 8 index close lower more -0.78%[SET] but volume is lower than 7. Still intact. As long as not make new low.
Follow through day has come. Every good run up come after follow through day. But not every follow through day is up. Therefore it is a chance to go up with stop loss should put in place in every trade. Take profit target at around pre high or % gain. Take partial or all is up to
SET wave count in week chart. Scenario1 as If 969.08 is lowest point which we will assume as 0. Also, 1454.95 as wave 1 and 1306.67 as wave 2. Next is wave 3 up. Scenario 2, 0 is wave 3 of C, 1 is wave (a)of 4 of C, 2 is wave (b) of 4 of C. Next is (c) of 4 of C. Both are Up leg
Week chart of SET, as you can see no sign of bottom, on 60min chart it could count as corrective wave 3 of C down at low 970.11(L)wave A at 1140.4(C) wave B at 1010.85(L) now is C or wave 4 of C down around here or even 1300+\- is possible then 5 down to C down @ low970.11++ or=
As of example of market bottom in the past in both SET & SET50 year 2008 and 1997, both time it show bullish divergence in week chart. So my point of view is that this up today is still too early to call market bottom. It would be corrective wave up 1300 is possible if 1140 break
Updated SET moved to range in my previous tweet pic so if we believe it can hold. Consider buy. If wait and see, watch market closely and plan action so you can act accordingly to your plan either buy or https://t.co/mR1uOQgdfg we r in wave C don’t know when it end but be ready
This is not wave count. It is a result of my thoughts process which I saw similarities in 2 events on the same chart in both SET and SET50. It is possible that SET can hold at 1220. Just want to share. Please use it wisely. Dont predict what will happen but b prepare if it happen