Narratives & Narcissism

Markets. Cycles. Narratives.
I follow price while others follow stories.
Guided through faith † | NYC
Not financial advice.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

@TicTocTick What?😭😭😭🤓🤦🏼‍♂️🤭

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Greedy.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

More than 360,000 margin accounts were forced into liquidation in Korea, per Citi.

62% of those wiped out were reportedly under the age of 35.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

A lot of chatter for a potential hike today. Leaving the rate unchanged was not surprising by any means....

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

The inflation critics seriously need to stop for a second and think...

It's almost sad.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

Every Decline in Full Time Jobs - as percentage of Population - has led to Recession. Every. Time.

Only now - I'm told - this time is different!

Let's see about that....! 😉

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Did we do it for America and Americans?

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

The U.S. has been significantly weakened by the war with Iran.

This administration depleted our missile defenses, drained our oil reserves, sacrificed our men & women, inflated the price of consumer goods, increased our debt, and neglected our domestic needs…

all for Israel.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

@RpsAgainstTrump My parents don't get involved with ego wars and think about sending me off to fight them. F**k you

[Malvin @ManOfFocus_]

You're a man. 97% of your stress should be about money or job, not about who is not talking to you.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

@0xJackPhantom @ernaldobonitto1 @TheNotoriousMMA Imagine being this mad 🤣

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

CPI came in at 0.5% MoM, exactly as expected.
No surprise. No relief.

The Fed already cut into this.
Now inflation is re-accelerating while growth is slowing.

This is the setup they were trying to avoid.

Cuts don't work the same way late cycle.
They confirm the turn. They don't prevent it.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Not yet. But very soon.

Risk still has time.

$UUP $SPY

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. Dollar 🇺🇸💵 It's Now or Never 📈📉

[Dear Self. @Dearme2_]

No joke, leaving your house and returning home safely 24/7 is something to give God thanks for.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

US Oil has broken the wedge to the downside (again) and is now entering the capitulation zone where suddenly people realize it's heading to $50 instead of $200.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

@EggsWhite @HenrikZeberg Good Analysis. Agree on bounce short-term once this selling pressure cools.

We will likely trade in the orange channel for a short period before reality hits.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

@agamemnus_dev I agree. Nearing the end of one.

Whether you call it a bull market, bubble, or liquidity cycle doesn’t change the point.

Duration doesn’t determine cycle tops.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

The average bull market lasts 5.6 years.

This one is 2.4 years old, 27 months since October 2022 lows.

That means we're statistically "early" and the "clock" isn't ticking yet.

Here's what that framing misses:

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

$NVDA is now bigger than India.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Existing-home sales. Contract closings hit 4.17M annualized.

The narrative: housing is stabilizing.

The reality: 4.17M is still 20% below the 2019 average. Mortgage rates are 6.5%+. Affordability is near record lows. Sales volumes can rise while the market remains structurally weak.

A bounce off a bottom is not the same as strength.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Existing home sales beat expectations.
The narrative: housing market resilience.
The reality: mortgage rates still above 6.5%. Affordability near multi-decade lows.

Sales beat because inventory loosened slightly, not because demand improved.

Sellers are capitulating. Buyers are still locked out.

This is not resilience. This is behavioral exhaustion mistaken for strength.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Silver breaks the 200-day MA.
Down 45% from the high set earlier this year.

$SLV

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

The question is not how old this cycle is.

The question is: what happens when the Fed cuts into deteriorating fundamentals, debt levels hit record extremes, breadth narrows, concentration reaches Dot Com levels, and retail speculation accelerates?

Duration averages comfort the crowd.

Liquidity determines outcomes.

[Narratives & Narcissism @NNNMacro]

Duration does not predict cycle tops.

Liquidity does.
Valuation extremes do.
Reflexivity exhaustion does.
Credit conditions do.

The 1990s bull lasted 113 months.
The 2009-2020 bull lasted 131 months.
Both ended when liquidity tightened and narratives detached.