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🚨 BREAKING:
🇺🇸 THE FED INTEREST RATE DECISION WILL BE RELEASED TOMORROW AT 2:00 PM ET!
KEVIN WARSH WILL ADDRESS THE MARKETS AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT!
THE BIGGEST QUESTION ISN'T JUST WHAT THE FED WILL DO TOMORROW.
IT'S WHAT WARSH WILL SAY ABOUT FUTURE RATE HIKES!
WITH INFLATION PRESSURES GROWING AND OIL PRICES REMAINING ELEVATED, HIS WORDS COULD TRIGGER MASSIVE MARKET MOVES!
ALL EYES ON THE FED TOMORROW! 👀
Gold is back near $4,000.
After inflation, it’s still worth about 4.5x its 1934 value.
In 1934 Washington fixed the price at $35 an ounce, about $890 in today’s money.
Spot gold is about $4,005 this morning.
For 37 years the fixed price was a trap.
US consumer prices roughly tripled, so by 1971 that $35 was worth about $290 in today’s money.
Once the market took over, the catch-up was fast.
January 1980 averaged $675, about $2,920 today.
Gold is still about 37% above that famous peak.
The 2011 peak never got there.
In today’s money it was about $2,630.
What moved gold this month is rates.
Gold pays no interest.
With $115 oil pushing up inflation, traders now see an 82% chance of a US rate hike in December.
Last week gold fell below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July, its worst week in about 4 months.
The buyers haven’t left...
-Gold ETFs took in a record $ 31bn in Q3, $ 10bn of it during September’s dip
-Central banks bought a net 39 tonnes in August, led by China
The miners still have a cushion, but it’s thinner:
-All in cost: $1,785 an ounce in Q1, up 16% in a year
-Record margin in Q1: $3,076 an ounce, earned at a higher price
-At about $4,005 today: roughly $2,200
That’s more than a quarter of the record margin gone, while costs rise for a 28th year in a row.
Margin per ounce is the number I’m watching.
🚨 THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET IS SITTING ON A MASSIVE TIME BOMB.
And I believe millions of Americans are about to learn a very expensive lesson.
2006: Housing bubble.
2008: Housing collapse.
2026: The next major turning point?
LOOK AT THIS CHART.
Home prices have reached levels that make the 2006 bubble look small on an inflation-adjusted index.
But here's what makes this cycle particularly dangerous.
According to Redfin, there are 62.6% MORE SELLERS THAN BUYERS.
Read that again.
Sellers are piling up while buyers are disappearing.
And yet prices remain stubbornly high.
WHY?
Millions of homeowners are sitting on mortgages near 3%.
New buyers face rates around 7%.
Existing owners don't want to give up their cheap financing.
Potential buyers can't afford the monthly payments.
The result?
A housing market that's slowly freezing.
But the real danger isn't the freeze.
IT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SELLERS CAN NO LONGER WAIT.
Think about the math.
You buy a $500,000 house with $100,000 down.
The market drops 10%.
Your house is now worth $450,000.
You've just lost $50,000 in equity.
HALF YOUR DOWN PAYMENT.
And that's before interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance and selling costs.
Now imagine an economic slowdown.
Layoffs accelerate.
Families relocate.
Divorces happen.
Retirees need liquidity.
Suddenly, some homeowners have no choice but to sell.
That's when the real price discovery begins.
HERE'S MY ROADMAP:
Late 2026: Housing weakness becomes harder to ignore.
2027: Motivated sellers increase and price cuts spread.
2027-2028: Potential buying opportunities emerge as affordability adjusts.
I'm not predicting that every U.S. housing market will collapse.
But I believe buying an overpriced property with expensive financing could become one of the worst financial decisions of this cycle.
Remember, I publicly called Bitcoin's $16K bottom and its $126K top.
Now I'm watching housing for another major turning point.
The biggest opportunities rarely appear when everyone feels comfortable.
They appear when sellers are desperate and buyers are terrified.
SAVE THIS CHART.
We'll revisit it in 2027.
Follow + turn notifications on.
I'll share the housing signals I'm watching before making my next major call.
Don't let your dream home become your biggest financial mistake.
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AI agents can help turn complex market data into clearer insights.
But better decisions still require human judgment.
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Russia is refining about 1/3 less oil than in January.
3.7m b/d in early October, down from 5.4m.
They bottomed at 3.3m in early July, the lowest in more than two decades.
Ukrainian drone strikes knocked out plants.
Moscow banned diesel exports from 8 July to keep fuel at home.
September diesel exports fell to 144,000 b/d, Vortexa data shows, the lowest in over a decade.
October’s quota works out to only about 70,000 b/d.
https://t.co/CIEgqAvU6V
🚨 WARNING: A BIG STORM IS COMING!!
The Fed just released new macro data, and the outlook is getting WORSE.
If you're holding stocks, Bitcoin, or ANY risk assets, you need to pay attention.
A massive global sell-off could be approaching, but almost nobody sees the warning signs.
Inflation pressure is building beneath the surface while markets keep pushing higher.
And here's the most dangerous part:
THE FED IS GETTING TRAPPED.
Here's what most investors are missing:
1️⃣ INFLATION IS ACCELERATING AGAIN.
→ Headline PCE: 3.4%
→ Core PCE: 3.0%
→ CPI: 3.4% → 3.7%
→ Monthly PPI: 0.5% → 1.3%
The Fed's target is just 2%.
Inflation remains elevated, yet the economy is still showing strength.
That makes rate cuts harder to justify and puts further tightening back on the table.
2️⃣ THE U.S. DEBT CRISIS IS GETTING BIGGER.
→ National debt: $40.3 TRILLION+
→ Annual interest costs: $1.14 TRILLION
→ Interest spending: +11% YoY
→ Federal deficit: Nearly $2 TRILLION
The government keeps borrowing while interest payments consume an increasing share of its budget.
Higher rates only make the problem worse.
3️⃣ THE FED IS TRAPPED.
Keep rates high → More pressure on businesses, debt and asset valuations.
Cut too early → Risk another inflation surge.
Either way, the market faces a serious liquidity problem.
4️⃣ THE NEXT MARKET CRASH?
Here's the scenario I'm watching:
Inflation ↑ → Bond yields ↑ → Liquidity ↓ → Stocks ↓ → Bitcoin ↓
We've seen liquidity shocks before.
2000 → Dot-com collapse
2008 → Financial crisis
2020 → COVID crash
Different triggers. Same lesson.
Markets often look strongest when investors are least prepared for a sudden reversal.
And I believe we're approaching another major turning point.
I publicly called Bitcoin's $16K bottom and $126K top.
My next major market call will be posted here first.
Follow and turn on notifications.
You don't want to miss what's coming.
The biggest IPO warning in 100 years.
This pattern has NEVER failed.
1928 → Goldman Sachs
1971 → Intel
2000 → AT&T Wireless
2026 → Anthropic
Each mega IPO arrived exactly on the peak of a major market bubble.
Then the S&P 500 crashed:
→ 1929 crash: 86%
→ 1973 crash: 53%
→ 2000 crash: 51%
→ 2026 crash: **%
And Anthropic is the final liquidity event before the AI bubble breaks.
Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years.
When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do.
Turn notifications on.
If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
🚨 BITCOIN BIG UPDATE 🚨
$BTC appears to be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, with price hovering around $82,000.
A breakdown below the neckline could trigger a sharp move, but confirmation is key.
Better portfolio questions start with your goals, timeline, and risk comfort.
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🩸 MASSIVE:
Huge whales are selling MILLIONS of crypto right now
$BTC just dumped below $82,000 and $ETH dropped to $2,400
Something bad is happening...