Last year I posted win total projections for CFB during the season. This year I've setup team pages for all teams that I'll be able to share at times to further analyze the projection data. Will add advanced stats during the season. Here's Alabama's page
https://t.co/DO9k0ejWHt
Updated college football (FBS) projected win totals through 11/15 games based on current record and chances of winning remaining games. Using my latest numbers for each team.
https://t.co/U9HunlHkRa
NCAA Men's tournament projections. Chance of each team winning the title, winning their region (advance to Final Four), Sweet 16 Yes/No, etc. Link:
https://t.co/aq1lOmdL9e
@CFBNerds I had it Miami 50.3%. A far cry from what the majority of people on this platform are referencing from ESPN (Miami 85+%)
If you don't factor in pre-game expectations for both teams & adjust for actual data you get a ridiculous # on Miami. A good metric has to match what we see
@MountSportScoop@DalyDoseOfHoops Based on actual chances of winning multiple games it's St. Peter's. Indiana's journey was incredible but they were favorites in every playoff game & the #1 overall seed. The definition of improbable is "not likely to be true or to happen" that wasn't Indiana it was St. Peter's.
I have it closer to 50/50 based on the way I calculate it. Miami at 50.3% w/post game score for each team almost identical at 22.5. (45 points)
I compare end game stats along with pre-game expectation (line/total) to run final numbers.
@HelmetAddict They never let the broadcast breathe. It's ok to have a little silence, it's a visual medium, we can see what'shappening. They don't understand any of that as they talk right through the snap of the next play.
NFL win total projections prior to Week 15. Using each team's current record and their chances of winning each of their remaining games based on my latest market rankings.
NFL win total projections after week 1. Using each team's current record and their chances of winning each of their remaining games based on my latest market rankings.
NFL win total projections thrugh 12/1/25 games. Using each team's current record and their chances of winning each of their remaining games based on my latest market rankings.
@CFBNerds Same scenario for Virginia/JMU by the most recent odds on FD assuming they don't jump other G5's ahead of them in the rankings. JMU +140 to make playoff, Duke +140 to beat Virginia..which means Virgina>JMU>Duke.
If they jump Tulane/NT then it changes, if not JMU needs Duke win.
Based on the latest bracket from last night here's what I have for chances of advancing through each round and winning the title. Takes into account each team's path to the title based on my current market ratings.
Playoff thoughts after latest update..ACC and Big12 with three teams total. Indiana, Ohio St., Oregon, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi, James Madison, one from (Alabama/Oklahoma/Vanderbilt)
NCAA FBS projected win totals after week 3 games. Using each team's current record and chances of winning their remaining games.
https://t.co/2b0pXSxwBb
Updated college football (FBS) projected win totals through 11/15 games based on current record and chances of winning remaining games. Using my latest numbers for each team.
https://t.co/U9HunlHkRa