Alisa

options trader, recovered academic. this is a notebook of fintwit tweets.

[S @0xSaliha]

Interesting take from prof.
Elevated rates today is more about “back to norm” following a period of unseasonably low rates during 2009-2021.
It’s a new norm. Meaning:

Expect high rates.
Expect positive equities returns as long as cash flows and earnings stay protected (thus far tracking)

How inflation tracks is going to be most critical as it will inform everything else in the market. Oil on watch and rates themselves will be an output of supply/ demand vs policy decisions. Watch the charts not the rhetoric.

[RIZZY 🔫 (👁️ ͜ʖ👁️)╭∩╮ @RichieRiiicch]

$AMD
$INTC
$NVDA
$TTWO

GRAND THEFT AUTO 6

WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE?

LAST COMPARABLE 2013 — WHAT WAS CRYPTO WORTH? WHAT WAS THE ENTIRE MARKET WORTH?

GLOBAL M2 ?

TIME TO UNDERSTAND VALUE: IN A GRAND THEFT AUTO LAUNCH YEAR (DARK HORSE, NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD)

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

-150bps

That’s the cost of trumps monumentally stupid failed two week excursion into Iran.

From .75 bps in cuts expected to .75 bps of hikes expected in just 7 months

Into mid terms

With an absolutely insane 5k lie to buy votes

Not a peep from GOP Congress

Grifts out the ass, family enrichment at the expense of every American at the pump to the checkout line. Crushing the base that voted him back in

And it’s not over

Only thing that saves the long end is the end of his term and new leadership that Iran may actually have talks with or a major market correction

Edit* we are at levels in m7 that we were at when eff was 5.25 and cuts were expected a few years out

Adding to the fubar is hikes don’t fix this

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Dr. Copper, also known as the barometer of the global economy, opening down 4.5% today is another sign of weakness in the market.

[Nick G. @nickgiva1]

Bessent maybe laughed, but I wasn't laughing. I came into Black Wednesday long 1,000 Short Sterling contracts along the whites and reds and by the time Norman had hiked rates twice that day, I was totally buried. Not being able to cover margin buried. Anyway, in for a penny in for a Pound (and being young, brave and foolish), I doubled up the Short Sterling at the close. You could do that at the time, as no one really knew how much the margin was, it was all "my word is my bond" type of stuff. People were falling over themselves to fill me, the floor broker told me later.
My office was in Davis St. at the time, just round the corner from Claridge's. I was shattered, went to get a room and fell asleep, mentally exhausted. At 7pm I got a call from my broker: sterling/mark was 2.65: we had left the ERM. I sold the crap out of it, on top.
Next morning GBP/DM was in the 2.30s and Short Sterling was +300bp, on its way to a lot more. Long Gilts were actually down, so I bought them. That turned out to be the best trade I ever did, as they rallied over 20 points in the next few weeks.
I vowed never to trade again: did not need to. 3 months later I was as bored as Hell and came back to it. You don't stop doing what you love just because you don't need the money.

[Poulpo Lepoulpe @LepoulpePoulpo]

No algos, just data that you can easily get from distillations - again and again no moat, just compute

methinks labs are too expensive, especially anthropic. META/GOOGL are gonna be frontier too but with cash flows that will make it much easier to borrow and expand

[Alisa @NYCMoms1]

@LepoulpePoulpo I am in the listserv of his fan group - we are all terrifed he wont get to complete the last volume, the really good shit (vietnam era)

[Alisa @NYCMoms1]

@LepoulpePoulpo Master of the Senate should be required reading.

[PurpleDrinkCapital @PurpleDrink_LLC]

I think we’re about to get one of those markets where index rips because $MAGS start going apeshit

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

We are now in the beginning of the rollover period for the indices. They move and trade differently during the roll. The heaviest days of roll will be Thurs, Friday and Monday next week. The spread between the Sep and Dec contract in ES is almost 70 pts, the widest in history. I will have a lot more to say as we head into it. Be careful. Vol will come out of nowhere and it will stop on a dime. Rollover it when we roll open interest from one contract to the other. The imporant FMOC meeting is next Wed at the end of roll, but you can bet the vol will be exacerbated on the numbers this week(PPI and CPI) and on Fed day. The volume will be huge Thurs, Friday and Monday, do not read to much into it. The volume always kicks up in a huge way during roll

[Gappy (Giuseppe Paleologo) @__paleologo]

Russell introduced the concepts of "knowledge by acquaintance" vs "knowledge by description". Polanyi introduced the concept of "tacit knowledge". I think that the Dark Matter of Knowledge is "tacit knowledge by acquaintance".
13/

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

👇👇👇

[Christian Klein @clkleinmonaco]

Here a short explanation for my new followers: there is nothing more bullish that a supply driven market. Once the curve gets inverted (spot more expensive than forwards), it’s the mkt telling you “buy forwards coz I have no more spot left”. That doesn’t mean the mkt is telling you prices will be lower in the future, it just tells you “I can’t sell spot and I encourage you to buy forwards”. We aren’t there yet but I suspect we will get there

[Dyme @CryptoParadyme]

No position but $IREN looks ready after a ~300 day chopfest.

[RIZZY 🔫 (👁️ ͜ʖ👁️)╭∩╮ @RichieRiiicch]

ACCURATE

22M HINGES = 11M IPHONE ULTRAS

FOLKS SEEM TO THINK THIS IS A “RUMOR” OR JUST NOW ENTERING THE NEWS CYCLE LMAO

$APH $SWKS $GLW🫡

[PurpleDrinkCapital @PurpleDrink_LLC]

I see nobody on fintwit really noticed the White House discussing $INTC completely revamping domestic semi onshoring as a foregone conclusion and soon OUT LOUD TO THE PRESS

[PaxTrader777🇺🇸 @paxtrader777]

same prices down and up. Long above 4422, take profit at 4447, add above to *4494*. Above 4494 we take profit at 4541 and add above to **4590**, new swing higher above 4610 to take profit at 4641, add above it to take profit 4750, next swing completes at **4790*8