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[hello82 PRESENTS @hello82PRESENTS]

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[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

The top 0.1% of Americans hold 14% of the country’s household wealth

[FoFty @FoFtyTrader]

what this is telling you is that the consumer - much like the govt's - has been draining reserves to keep things afloat. except instead of draining oil reserves, the consumer is draining their savings account at the bank

as such, i have updated my analysis that we will not just have one toilet paper event, but now two toilet paper events:

1. oil market
2. consumer spending (e.g. 70% of the economy)

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

The U.S. Dollar has lost 30% of its purchasing power over the last six years

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Over three-quarters of Americans think economic conditions are getting worse

[Oldstyle @NapsCS]

@WallStreetApes Her choice

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

The difference between a Closed Market and Open Markets
#IYKYK
#ButManyDoNotKnow

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

401(k) flows are slowing:

Every two weeks, paychecks pour billions into 401(k)s, IRAs, and managed accounts.

That cash buys index funds, index funds buy the stocks, the index rises, and rising prices attract more cash.

A positive feedback loop on the way up.

In reverse, redemptions force selling, the index drops, more redemptions follow.

The down phase is faster and more violent than the up phase, and monthly inflows just stalled at $82B.

11,200 Americans hit 65 every single day, and the class of 2026 is the third weak grad cohort in a row.

With low productivity young-adults on the sidelines and low productivity Boomers retiring, less inflows makes sense.

Cleaner numbers are set to print on June 2.

Watch the 401(k) flows.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

JUST IN: Applicants per job posting have tripled since 2019

[Oldstyle @NapsCS]

@unusual_whales No such thing

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

One thing we are watching closely, because it will eventually show up in both economic and earnings data, is the ongoing decline of real disposable incomes.

[Christian B. Drake @HedgeyeUSA]

@RPKent @Hedgeye @KeithMcCullough Oil → Higher Highs
Crack Spreads → High Highs

Oil + Oil on its way to becoming “other stuff” = increasingly expensive

“Other stuff’ gets more expensive

Oil & “other stuff” = CPI

Completely Unpredictable!

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

A Dollar shortage + oil shortage isn't supposed to be possible. The demand for oil is inversely correlated to the value of the Dollar. Under normal supply situations, the higher the Dollar the less oil nations can afford, which reduces demand.

What's different this time is there's an engineered supply shock to global oil, but not in the U.S.

As nations are starved of oil, their economies slow. Their ability to sell goods to the U.S. declines, which means they receive less Dollars that they need to service their debt.

At the same time, the U.S. is still open for business, exporting oil for Dollars, which sucks Dollars back into the U.S.

The more the U.S. exports, the less Dollars are in circulation for the rest of the world, raising the value of the Dollar when there's an oil shortage.

Again, the Dollar & Oil going up at the same time isn't supposed to be possible, but that's exactly what's about to happen.

This leads to a massive disruption in the global debt market, which tightens loan supply, reducing the ability to get Dollars, increasing the risk of defaults while forcing nations to sell their U.S. Dollar denominated assets below face value.
e.g. U.S. treasuries

[Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle]

Nice chart by @BrookingsInst

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

According to the University of Michigan data, consumer sentiment is now at the worst level it has ever been since 1952.

It's worse than the depths of the 2008 and 1980s crises.

What happens when things get really bad?
Will there be riots on the streets?

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

One of the reasons we keep getting mixed messages regarding Iran is bc Iran’s leadership was decentralized as a strategic defense. It’s worked to some extent. But it also means they don’t have a unified message and are arguing internally. Classic Byzantine Generals Problem.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

@MarioNawfal He's on tape bragging about grabbing women by the pussy. He's been found liable in court for sexual abuse. He publicly paid off a stripper. Epstein called him his closest friend and currently Trump protects the Epstein files.

By no accounts is he a man of faith.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

This is going to be the greatest TACO of all time! 🤣

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"Over 2/3 of young adults" are not dating regularly, per WaPo.

"If trends continue, 1-in-3 young adults will not get married."

[Mark Gadala-Maria @markgadala]

AI has gone too far.

Harry Potter "6 7" platform.

Credit: Unhindered Studios