Somehow every future scenario and headline ends up being bullish for SpaceX. Not even Biased.
Jensen affair? Tighter China exports. More Nvidia chips for SpaceX. Bullish.
Democrats win? Permits slow down for everyone. SpaceX has its own power and turbines. Bullish.
Complete data center freeze? SpaceX's are already being built. Supply stops, demand doesn't, compute prices go up. SpaceX is the landlord. Bullish.
"Too many data centers on Earth"? Only SpaceX can take them to space. Bullish.
Compute gets cheap? Grok Bot gets cheaper to run and demand explodes. Bullish.
Compute stays expensive? Google is already paying SpaceX $920M a month. Bullish.
AI bubble pops? $51B more cash than debt. Buys everyone's GPUs on sale. Bullish.
Anthropic walks away? Grok Bot is short on compute and takes all of it. Bullish.
Power shortage? The sun is free in orbit. Bullish.
Chip shortage? Terafab. Bullish.
Rates go up? $51B net cash. Who cares. Bullish.
Recession? Starlink is the thing you keep when everything else gets cut. Bullish.
War? Starshield. Bullish.
NASA budget cut? Only SpaceX can do the Moon on a budget. Bullish.
Starship explodes? 33 engines, more data, next one flies sooner. Bullish.
Stock dips? You get more shares for the same money. Bullish.
You literally canโt lose if you go all in SpaceX.
$SPCX
GOOD NEWS ๐๏ธ The 4680 bottleneck is on its way to becoming a thing of the past, as Tesla's Giga Texas will soon be the largest battery cell factory in North America ๐ฅ
The news comes straight from Michael Guilfoy, Tesla's Director of Cell Manufacturing Operations.
He says the 4680 team is in the middle of a massive production expansion, and he's now filling nine critical leadership roles, from a Senior Production Manager all the way to production, quality and maintenance supervisors.
Those are the people who run the lines and shifts on a factory floor, and Tesla is clearly staffing up for a lot more of both.
So where are all those cells going?
Guilfoy's post lists four programs, but with Cybertruck production at Giga Texas winding down around mid-2027, the real growth story is the other three.
The Semi is the hungriest of them all.
It's now in volume production in Nevada, and Tesla says the top version goes up to 500 miles at about 1.7 kWh per mile. That works out to roughly 850 kWh of battery, more than ten times a 4680 Model Y pack.
Tesla lists installed Semi capacity at 25,000 trucks a year, and at that pace the Semi alone would need around 21 GWh of cells annually, roughly half of what the Texas 4680 lines can make today.
Cybercab is coming up fast behind it.
Production started at Giga Texas in April, Tesla lists installed capacity at more than 125,000 a year, and about 570 Cybercabs are already carrying riders in Texas, with Dallas up next.
The floor space Cybertruck leaves behind is going straight to Cybercab, which means even more robotaxis needing even more cells.
Then there's Model Y, the world's best-selling car. Tesla now builds 4680 packs for certain Model Ys in Austin, and it ended Q3 with its largest passenger vehicle backlog in four years.
That's exactly why the bottleneck exists.
Tesla said in its Q3 update that battery supply still limits how fast it can ramp vehicle production, and every new 4680 line in Austin pushes that limit further out.
The scale is already serious. Tesla's own capacity table lists the Texas 4680 lines at more than 40 GWh a year, which puts them in the same league as Panasonic's 41 GWh plant inside Giga Nevada and GM and LG's 45 GWh Ultium plant in Ohio.
One factory in Austin is about to power a robotaxi network, a fleet of electric big rigs and the world's best-selling car at the same time.
Bill Ackman on why Elon Musk deserves recognition for continuing to build when he could have stopped years ago
โIf Elon Musk had stopped working, we would only have Tesla. We wouldn't have SpaceX. We wouldn't have the Boring Company. We wouldn't have Neuralink, a technology that may, say, enable my daughter to see again or speak again
These are people that we should treasure, people we should applaud, people like thisโ
To Americans,
I also donโt blindly support everything @elonmusk does. I also dislike how he gets too deep into politics, speaks w/o filters & some others things..
But from Americaโs perspective, he has made enormous contributions & I believe you people really should be grateful to him.
I sometimes struggle to understand why some of you resent Elonโs wealth.
Just imagine what the world might look like today if Elon had NOT existed.
Russia would still dominate the space industry & NASA would likely still be relying on far more expensive traditional approaches. (SpaceX has actually saved the US taxpayers many billions of dollars.)
Have you already forgotten the Russia-Ukraine war? W/o Starlink, most people around the world would NEVER have properly known what was happening there. Russia would've simply swallowed Ukraine & that would've created an enormous risk for Europe, far greater than anything we see today.
Elon provided Starlink for free out of goodwill. However, Ukraine was the one that crossed the line first by trying to use it for military purposes, so the support was cut off. Yet people still blindly attack Elon, even though they themselves did nothing for this at all.
Letโs think about EVs.
China would almost certainly dominate the EV market. Look at where GM & Ford stood for yrs. Tesla forced the entire industry to move & w/o it the US would've had far less of a foothold. Gas dependency would've been much higher than it is now & self-driving would be a completely different story.
And then there is AI, the trajectory would look very different w/o him.
Now look at the jobs.
Across his companies, ~100,000 people draw a direct paycheck today in the United States. (When you include suppliers, contractors & the broader economic activity those wages support, the total impact is estimated in the hundreds of thousands of jobs.)
The thing is,
His wealth was NOT taken from your pocket. It was created by building companies that did NOT exist before & that produce real products & real value.
W/o him, much of that economic activity & the tax revenue that comes w/ it simply would NEVER exist.
You also should remember in 2021 alone he paid >$11B in taxes, one of the largest personal tax payments in American history.
The people you should be criticizing are NOT Elon, but those who treat his success as a problem to be punished while ignoring the value he has created & the jobs & technology that flow from it.
#Tesla $TSLA #SpaceX $SPCX
@Tina22_2 Thank you Tina for such clarity. As a โprogressiveโ or in the eyes of my ex colleagues an ex (X) progressive ๐I am full of admiration for @elonmusk he has done more to create a fair just , maximally truth seeking and ecological civilisation than an one alive. ๐๐ป๐๐ป๐๐ป
@asjwebley@SWC_Wiki Much appreciation and kudos for getting the preferred into London. You are crushing milestone after milestone and much thanks for @saylor for blazing the path
@asjwebley What will you use those assets, the BTC, for? A bank lends based on their assets. Other companies buy other companies or other assets. Do you have any ideas what the long term vision might be ?
@asjwebley Thank you as always @asjwebley for your clear thoughtful and focussed assessment of our, our because I am a long term investor in SWC, prospects and looking ahead. What I am constantly thinking about, and a question I have as yet no answer to, is after adding to BTC/share
@asjwebley@smarterwebuk which I think M Saylor had reached that will limit how much one player holds, any further accumulation will be counterproductive. My opinion. We will see ( I am a holder of both SWC and MSTR ) so I do not say this lightly ๐๐
@asjwebley@smarterwebuk I believe it is an important psychological consideration for many investors. One that now can be changed.โ I think this would be the case except that MSTR controls so much of the BTC supply. Which creates unwelcome power. I think this points to a point
@asjwebley@smarterwebuk Thank you @asjwebley for another jam packed update. Much appreciated!! However I question this view: โStrategy has become the company that "holds up" the Bitcoin market. Whether or not that perception is accurate, and in my view the evidence points to that not being true,