If you've been following me for a while you know that I've been about as vocal a $hype bull as there has been for years. A few things have changed, however, that makes the no-brainer long no longer so obvious for me.
1. If Saylor kills btc with his mstr ponzi and the rest of crypto dies with it, this is a huge blow to hyperliquid trading volumes. Majority of hype volume is still crypto. If crypto degens mass migrate to trading stocks, hype is then forced to compete with tradfi brokers for trading volume. It can do this, but it's a much tougher game. The norm for places like Schwab and Robinhood is zero fees. Hype the way it currently is structured is an order of magnitude more expensive. Fees will have to come in or volumes will come down. Sure the gray money that can't kyc will be forced to trade there but folks who can migrate and actually track their trading costs will migrate.
2. Perps are now legal in the US. All the tradfi brokers will now be competing for a slice of the perp pie - not to mention the other crypto players like Kalshi and Polymarket. The incumbents are also cozy with regulators. Hype will be the outsider in this politics game and the pre-ipo product will definitely come under scrutiny.
3. Hype FDV is now trading basically at Robinhood's market capitalization. The risk-reward at $75 is very different than when it was trading around $10 during the JellyJelly attack.
If one has a bullish view on crypto in general, $hype is the obvious asset to long in my opinion - replacing btc and eth in prior cycles. If one does not have a bullish view on crypto, however, I don't think it's the obvious buy it once was now that etfs are live and it's trading at the valuation it is.
seems the crypto bear rally was simply btfd, squeeze, and strc
not a new cycle
btc now battling through resistance at 79-85k
with a bearish macro backdrop
don't think a taco in the east can offset
good time to hide out in gold and wait for 60s in 2H
spot is more important than perp for rwas
perp dexs need a spot venue to let users post spot as margin
unlocks basis traders who buy spot, short perp, earn the funding rate
keeping funding rates in check at the same time