Nat

storage, tech.

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

If you‘re ever feeling down, just know I once looked Evan Spiegel in the eyes and asked if the photo we just took was insta worthy.

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@kylehtucker Could you show us their 1966 to 1996 EBITDA growth?

They grew revenue at a 21% CAGR during that period. Only grew rev 3.5% in the last 2 decades.

I guess I was one of the 3 new followers!

[Grant Stenger (hiring) @GrantStenger]

There will be trillions of markets.

The world is radically under-hedged. People and businesses carry enormous exposure to housing, income, weather, energy, supply chains, health, and so on.

This is a massive missing-markets problem.

Historically, markets were expensive to create. Specifying the claim, verifying the outcome, finding counterparties, supplying liquidity, settling contracts, and keeping the structure legally admissible all required costly institutional labor.

AI changes the cost structure.

In this essay, I argue that we are approaching a phase change in market formation. In the supporting papers, I formalize what a market is, when a new market is born, how liquidity providers make long-tail claims tradable, and when markets are socially good or bad.

The future contains trillions of markets.

https://t.co/dXKNb4I0h9

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@puppyeh1 Apparently their mother was a savant business woman who made her boys remember:

“Never buy something unless you know to whom you can sell it”

and

“Buy as much as possible in a narrow range of hot items.”

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@puppyeh1 Chandlers took over their initial family business, fixed + grew it and then sold for $10MM which is where they really started “investing” in the traditional sense.

Then compounded at 36% IRR *afterwards*!

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@excel_ranger What do you think of the auto repair business?

Checked your locations in San Antonio and would not want to be your competitors right now.

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@Cribdilla @moseskagan That’s fair - I’m always worried about default in those scenarios (big liability, small business).

If environmental insurance exists for those tenants would make it more of a no brainer.

Thx for the back and forth prof

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@Cribdilla @moseskagan (Debating, respectfully)

I can see an argument for brokers to take even more aligned pay.

For example, today, brokers can push to lease to tenants with environmental liability they would not personally risk.

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@CXCarroll Owner moved to TN, makes sense

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

Well that was fast

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

Can’t wait for my future kids to be cheating on their homework with GANs

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@SMB_Attorney LOI

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@dvdsgl Who makes this tablet? Fun setup!

[Grant Stenger (hiring) @GrantStenger]

AI labs and quant funds are converging.

Why was DeepSeek built by a Chinese hedge fund and not a US tech giant?

In reality, they’re structurally the same pipeline: data -> model -> constraints -> execution -> feedback.

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@darynakulya @TheMotelMan Right now manually tagging, but on my to dos to swap to AI tags like @TheMotelMan

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

you are under no obligation to be the person you were 5 minutes ago - sweet new name!

[gracie redfern @gracekwillie]

new name new me

[gracie redfern @gracekwillie]

A girl loves a junk journal almost as much as she loves a Figma MakeAThon

That's why I built junkjunk: a digital love letter to all your beautiful ephemera (or trash, whatever you’d like to call it)

Snap photos of your precious junk (tickets, receipts, wrappers, random treasures, ANYTHING!) that would normally live in a physical junk journal, and instantly add them to your digital collection. When creativity strikes, dive back in to layer on stickers, write notes, add maps, and give your journal that perfectly chaotic, but uniquely YOU aesthetic.

It's like having a junk journal that never runs out of pages and never gets coffee stained (unless you want it to)

Huge thanks to @figma & @contra for hosting an incredible MakeAThon this week. What an awesome creative playground! #figmamakeathon

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@KevinDoyleRE Sounds like you hit the jackpot!

At a high level we’ve seen the competitor sqft not mattering as much as the *level* of competitors.

REIT markets are a knife fight vs. mom n pop markets.

How many sqft/capita did you end up building at your 5 mile?

[gracie redfern @gracekwillie]

I’m so committed to my @WHOOP data that I’ve decided I’d rather have a whoop tan slightly ruin my wedding photos than stop wearing it to even out the tan.

Exhibits below:

[Nat @Nat_Redfern]

@TinaJiang20 @p0 Casually crushing the GPT-5 benchmarks