Not saying the take is wrong but raw call option volume leaves out a lot of nuance. Some considerations/metrics worth looking at:
Underlying ETF volume: Bond ETFs have seen inflows recently and volume in TLT has also increased at current yields. Pretty normal dynamic.
Implied Vols: TLT IV peaked at the end of September as yields hit max pain thresholds and market positioning was washed out. IV has come off now and activity has expanded.
Put volumes: also rose alongside call volumes. Although calls notched out higher numbers, this is BAU.
25d skew: The 25 delta Put/Call skew (while still trading for puts) has moved off extremes towards more neutral territory, suggesting there is indeed incremental demand for calls vs puts compared to the end of September.
BREAKING: Call options on the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) just hit a record high of 14.9M contracts in one month.
Traders are betting that long term bond yields are about to fall and bond prices will rise.
This comes after TLT fell 9% in Q3 and the 30-year yield reached its highest level in 24 years.
French versus Italian sovereign spreads:
What Bloomberg is reporting here was thought unlikely, if not unthinkable, not so long ago.
#economy#markets#europe#france#italy
This week's 10y and 30y UST auctions had decent demand and marked a top (?) in yields as we head into the weekend. To rule out a Friday mean reversion would need to see follow through to start the week. Keep in mind the market is waiting for the US September CPI data release on Wednesday next week.
Economist front page - needless to say - is always an interesting indicator.
Time for Bonds.
@TheEconomist, founded in 1843 by James Wilson, asks on this week's cover: "Will bonds blow up?"
Same week: 10Y hits 5.35% (highest since 2002), then reverses to 5.23%. Auctions: 10Y 80% indirects, 30Y 72%.
History rhymes: in 1873, the year of the great railroad-bond panic, the paper's editor Walter Bagehot published "Lombard Street", still the central bankers' crisis playbook. 153 years later, the same paper asks if bonds will blow up.
When fear makes the cover, positioning is usually already there. The great Jim Bianco @biancoresearch made the call.
Staggering metrics. Hiring a US to China Oil tanker now costs c. $ 80 million.
Launching SpaceX's Falcon 9 costs $ 74 million.
Per barrel costs are now reaching 45% of the price of WTI.
Charts & metrics complements of bloomberg.
SpaceX wants to borrow $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips. Its shares dropped on the news โ and the cost of insuring its debt hit a record high.
Volatility like that is why some investors buy put options on SpaceX shares. If the stock price drops, they get the right to sell SpaceX shares at the strike price.
They can do this either as:
1) A directional bet on the stock's fall, or
2) A hedge on SpaceX shares they might already own.
The IncomeShares SpaceX Options ETP takes the other side of that trade: it sells put options on SpaceX to those option buyers. The option buyers pay premiums upfront, and we aim to pay that premium out to investors as monthly income.
The ETP also holds some exposure to SpaceX shares. That can help it track the general direction of the stock's moves โ both to the upside and downside.
The image shows total return since launch on 10 July: the change in the ETP's price plus every distribution, reinvested when paid. SpaceX pays no dividend, so the stock's line is its share price. Figures in US dollars to 30 September 2026.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Capital at risk. For professional investors only.
#MarketingCommunication #SpaceX $SPCX
Join @Natali_Monardo and I for today's Spaces.
Which stocks are we INSANELY bullish on and why?
1.45pm UK time! (set your reminder)
https://t.co/rzr9VtjdIw
The S&P 500 fell 0.35% in September, but 77% of its stocks declined.
$META $AAPL $AMD $NVDA $INTC cushioned the drop, while the median stock lost 5.8%.
See the breakdown below.
Market breadth remains a huge topic of discussion with fewer stocks driving overall index gains.
Typically, weak breadth is taken as a bearish signal due to the โfragilityโ of the rally, but bulls argue that innovative waves have historically begun with a few select leaders and earnings growth remains robust.
That being said, funding costs have increased with interest rates and high investor expectations mean stocks could sell off even with in line results.
The fourth quarter was supposed to be ripe for big IPOs, many of which have been postponed. #Anthropic coming to market is going to have investors on the edge of their seats.
๐๏ธ Domani alle 18:00 sarร in diretta il mio fantastico collega @Andreatenti insieme a @RankiaItalia Italia per parlare di @IncomeShares !
Un webinar dedicato a capire meglio come funzionano gli ETP IncomeShares e le strategie basate sulla vendita di opzioni.
๐นCosa sono gli IncomeShares e come si differenziano da un investimento azionario tradizionale
๐น Come funzionano le strategie covered call e protective put
๐น Da dove arrivano le distribuzioni mensili e perchรฉ possono variare nel tempo
๐น Come si comportano gli IncomeShares a seconda dei vari scenari di mercato del sottostante
๐น Rischi e principali elementi da valutare prima di scegliere uno strumento
๐Trovate sotto il link per la registrazione.
@Rankia
Kicking off the week with the reality sinking in and the effects feeding through into markets...
EURUSD fell almost an entire figure during today's Asia session.
European government bond spreads are widening as investors flock to safety. France bearing the brunt of it with the spread btwn 10y French and German govies widening to 150 basis points last week.
Italy also selling off in sympathy.
The diesel release from strategic reserves and slight downward pressure on energy prices doing little to bolster the ccy with the fiscal backdrop top of mind.
๐ธ A look back at Londonโs Investor Summit, where @Natali_Monardo explored leveraged & short ETPs and @jbhobbs covered monthly income from market volatility.
Thanks to everyone who joined.
#MarketingCommunication
Love me a $2 trillion valuation with $4.6 billion in revenue and a $42 billion net loss ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅ
Canโt wait to see the initiating coverage reports from GS and MS explaining their methodologies